The State of Astros Minor League Pitching

A spin-off of Baseball America and Seedlings to Stars’s depth charts, here’s my take on state of Astros minor league pitching depth.

As with the position players, the pitching depth has taken a large step forward this year. With a massive influx of talent from trades and the draft, promising pitching prospects can be found from AAA all the way down to the rookie Gulf Coast League. There are many reasons why the overall grade is improved. First, there’s just straight up more talent. Secondly, some of the ‘older’ prospects whose stars had dimmed have had rebound years. Third, more prospects found have success at the next level. This is seemingly at rates unseen in the past few years. In general, the system has a seen a substantial rise in top-talent and low-level depth. Greeneville and Tri-City are chock full of prospects.

It’s not all positive though; many of former top-5 pitching prospects have struggled this year. Cosart, Oberholtzer and Clemens come to mind. Former second rounder Tanner Bashue has completely fallen off the map. And while the front office did a good job of shoring up top right-handed talent, there’s still a dearth of top lefty talent. Most of the talent is concentrated at Class A levels or lower, which for the most part matches the position prospects side.

Right-Handed Starter Upside: B+
Right-Handed Starter Depth: A-
Left-Handed Starter Upside: C
Left-Handed Starter Depth: B-
Bullpen arms: B
Overall system pitching grade: B

Starting Pitcher #1: Jarred Cosart (RHP). An up-and-down year for the home-town boy. Starting the year back at AA – Corpus, he basically hasn’t taken a leap forward or backward. He has a solid, if unspectacular era of 3.91 in 13 starts. He got one spot start in OKC, did nothing with it, and was immediately returned to AA. Cosart still has the same incredible raw stuff and the same problems with mechanical consistency and strike-out rates. Because of this, many nationals analysts are starting to sour on him as a frontline starter and project him as a back-of-the-bullpen (BotB) pitcher. What’s been surprising is his attitude. He’s been very vocal on twitter about his distaste with Astros promotions/demotions. Cosart is not pitching well enough to be a tolerable *******.

Starting Pitcher #2: Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP). Coming of an ESPN National Player of the Year senior season at Tampa Jesuit, he fell in the draft to the Astros at 41 due to signability concerns. The upside? He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 94-96 mph and will touch 100mph. His best off-speed offering is a two-plane break slider that has been rated a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curve and change-up. As with many young pitchers, mechanics and consistency are issue. There is also a concern for projection, as he’s already a big guy at 6-2, 195lbs. Similar to Cosart, his raw stuff is so good analysts have him pegged as a BotB guy if starting doesn’t work out. Otherwise he projects as a future top-of-the-rotation pitcher, an ace in fact*. He will start the season with the GCL Astros on July 13th and move up to Greeneville at some point this season.

Starting Pitcher #3: Mike Foltynewicz (RHP). In a repeat year at Lexington, Folty has been kicking ass with a 9-2 record and 2.51 era. A former supplemental first rounder, he probably has the best pure stuff in the system behind Cosart and McCullers. He has a mid-90’s fastball and a smattering of secondary offerings. Now the downside: he hasn’t pitched as well as his first-glance numbers indicate. His fielding independent era (FIP) is 3.61 and his strike-outs per 9 (K/9) is a lowly 6.8. He’s done all he can in LoA so he’ll see a promotion to HiA or AA mid to late this season. If he can continue to make adjustments he could see success at later levels. His ceiling remains a good #2 starter but it’s unlikely he will reach that.

Starting Pitcher #4: Nick Tropeano (RHP). A 5th round pick last year and a revelation this year in his first full season of pro ball, Tropeano has attracted plenty of attention for his work in Lexington. John Sickels gave him honorable mention status in his most recent Top 120 prospect list. The scouting report on Tropeano was a polished college arm with a mediocre fastball. He was expected to rise quickly through the system but top out at a back-of-the-rotation (BOR) starter like Dallas Keuchel. His record this season is 7-4 with a 2.55 era and 10k/9in in 95.1 innings between LoA Lexington and HiA Lancaster. His first start in HiA produced the highest game score in the Astros system this year: Dominance. What’s very exciting is that current scouting reports say his fastball touches 96mph in games now. Combine that with his best-in-college-baseball changeup and he potentially has two plus pitches. I’d say his current ceiling is a solid middle-of-rotation (MOR) starter, but if he continues to add mph to his fastball and refine his secondary pitches that could change. He’s a candidate for AA next season.

Starting Pitcher #5: Paul Clemens (RHP) This was my toughest selection; the gap between him and those behind him is minimal at best. Acquired in the Michael Bourn trade last season, Clemens probably has the best repertoire of pitches left. He features a 4-seam fastball that averages 93-96mph and is stated to have a solid curve and slider. His minor league record was above-average in stops in HiA and AA ball but has completely hit a wall in AAA. He currently has an 8-7 record in AAA with a 6.42 era and a 6.0 K/9 ratio. He’s also been prone to the HR this year, giving up 13 homers in 17 starts. With three solid pitches, his ceiling is a MOR pitcher. David Coleman of the Crawfishboxes likens him to Bud Norris. Unfortunately, he seems slated to a BotB career. He could see relief work in Houston next year.

*I hate the overuse of the ‘ace’ moniker in prospect listings. Ace is very specific guy who you’d be scared to see in the playoffs. A badass. There’s maybe 15 of them in league. A top-of-the-rotation guy is someone you see comfortably as your #1 pitcher. Often times the line between a lesser #1 and a strong #2 is indistinguishable.

 

Relief Pitcher #1: Jason Stoffel (RHP) Acquired in the Jeff Keppinger trade last season, Stoffel is a career reliever dating back to his college days at Arizona. A former top 10 prospect in the Giants system, he’s been described a one-pitch guy. That one pitch is a mid-90’s fastball. He also throws a power slider/slurve and a poor change-up. This season, Stoffel has been excellent as the closer for Corpus. He has 13 saves, a 1.57era and 7.8k/9 in 34.1 innings. With all that in mind, he projects as a middle reliever with potential BotB consideration if everyone comes together for him. Here's an old, but detailed profile of Stoffel. We could see him in Houston sometime in the middle of next season.

Relief Pitcher #2: Kevin Chapman (LHP) Acquired in the Bourgeois/Quintero deal in spring training, Chapman’s another hard throwing reliever at AA. The difference is he’s a lefty (holy crap we have leftys in the system?!?). He has a 2.57 era with 9.8k/9 in 35 relief innings in Corpus. Scouting reports say Chapman has a mid-90’s fastball, a slider described as the best in the Royals system, and a solid changeup for a reliever. He projects as a BotB reliever as well. For more on Chapman, checkout this Royals blog.

Relief Pitcher #3: Juan Abreu (RHP) Acquired in the Bourn deal, Abreu was kind of a wild-card thrown in the trade. He can run his fastball up to 98mph. It’s the kind of power that projects as a power closer. Unfortunately, his control is terrible so he could easily end up not sticking in the majors at all. He’s also an old prospect at 26 years old. At AAA, he has a 8.31 era with 10.6 k/9 in 34.2 innings. Both of those numbers are eye-popping. On a positive note, he had a 7 game cup of coffee in Houston last year and had a 2.70 era with 12k’s in 6.2 innings.

Best of the Rest:
1) Jose Cisnero (RHP) Combining excellent strike-out numbers with solid era’s (mid 3’s) at 4 levels, Cisnero is ready to be considered a legitimate prospect. This season at AA, he’s gone 6-6 with a 3.68 era and 9.8 k/9. Solid numbers all around. I can’t find any scouting reports on him, but game summaries indicate he throws a mid-90’s fastball and a hard curve. He is the owner of one of the best pitching performances in the system this year, throwing a complete game with 2 hits, 2 bb, and 6 k’s back on June 16th against the Frisco RoughRiders. I see him finishing this season in AA and starting next year at AAA. He could get a spot start in Houston sometime next season.

2) Brett Oberholtzer (LHP) Another guy whose star has diminished this year. Acquired in the Bourn trade, he’s got three solid pitches: an 87-92mph FB, a curve and changeup. He was widely considered to be the closest to the bigs and have the highest floor of the Bourn trade prospects. This season he started in AA and put up decent numbers: 4.21 era and 7.9k/9 in 13 starts. He got a promotion to AAA and promptly got smacked in the face. His AAA record is 1-2 with a 6.20 era and 5.8k/9. His ceiling was a solid 4/5 BOR starter and floor was lefty middle reliever. At this point, he’s leaning in the lefty reliever direction.

3) Wes Musick (LHP) Acquired in the Matt Lindstrom deal two offseasons ago, Musick had a meteoric rise this season. He started in HiA and made it to AAA by mid-May before an injury sent him to the DL on June 19th. His stats in AAA were very respectable: 3.64 era in 6 starts with a 4.6k/9. Lindstrom is another soft-tossing lefty. His fastball averages in the 88-90 range and he is reported to have a solid curve. He’s already 25 years old, so his outlook looks a lot like Oberholtzer: a BOR starter or lefty middle reliever. He’s currently on the DL but could see time in Houston late this year or sometime next year.

 

4) Vincent Velasquez (RHP) The former 2010 second rounder is a high-upside, low-floor pick. A two-way player in high school, the Astros convinced him to stick to the mound. He throws in the low 90’s and has been reported to have a potential change-up. He lost the 2011 season to Tommy John surgery but looks sharp in 3 starts in Tri-City this year. His record is 2-0 with a 1.76 era and 16k’s in 15.1 innings. He could move up to Lexington by the end of the year.

5) Adrian Houser (RHP) The 2011 second round draftee is repeating Greenville this year. Houser is a lot like Velasquez, a huge projection pick. His fastball tops out at 94-95 but he usually works in the 90-91mph range. He is reported to have a solid curve and is working on a changeup. In 3 starts in Greeneville this year, he’s 0-2 with a 4.11 era and 11 k’s. Houser is the Showtime Rotisserie Barbeque of pitching prospects. Set the timer to 4 years and check if he’s ready for the show.

6) Brady Rodgers (RHP) The 2012 3rd round is a polished, soft-tossing college arm, aka Dallas Keuchel. He features a 89-90mph fastball, a screwball and some other breaking stuff. He was started in Tri-City (LoA short season) but may progress to Lexington very quickly. In 2 starts in Tri-City, he’s 1-0 with a 0.93 era and 13k’s in 9.2 innings.

7) Dayan Diaz (RHP) A 23 y/o reliever getting his first taste of full-season ball, Diaz has put together a very impressive season at Lexington. His record is 4-2 with a 1.23 era and 9.8k/9 ratio in 24 appearances. He’s a candidate to move up to Lancaster or Corpus later this year.

8) Jason Chowning (RHP) The former 2010 28th round pick had a brilliant start to the season. He went 1-2 with a 0.66 era and 13.2k/9 in 19 relief appearances in Lexington. He earned a promotion to Lancaster and that’s when the wheels fell off. In 7 appearances since his promotion, he has a 14.54 era and and 13.5k/9 ration in 8.2 innings. He features a low 90’s fastball with a ‘nasty’ slider. He was also a part of one of the strangest baseball stories I’ve read in a while.

9) Luis Cruz (LHP) A not-so-young (21) former 2008 9th round pick, he is repeating Lexington for the third year. I can’t find anything on his stuff. Statistically he is having a solid year at LoA with a 3.71 era and 8.1 k/9 ratio in 18 appearances (14 starts). He probably projects like Musick and Oberholtzer: back end rotation fodder or lefty reliever.

10) Sergio Perez (RHP) As the 2006 2nd round pick, Perez is one of the last remnants of the Tim Purpura era left in the minors. At 26 y/o, his projection is pretty much gone but he could see time as a stretch reliever/spot starter in Houston. Aka Aneury Rodriguez. His minor league free agent rights are granted at the end of the season, and with that the Tim Purpura era will go quietly into the night. For nostalgia’s sake I put him at the end of my list.

Apologies to many notable 2012 draftees and other young pitchers in Tri-City and Greeneville, many of them are pitching extremely well: Juri Perez, Aaron West, Brian Holmes, Travis Ballew, Richard Rodriguez, Francis Ramirez.

 

Rasmussen, dang. I made a mental note to include him and totally forgot about it. I'd slot him in after Oberholtzer and Musick. He's got slightly better stuff and ceiling (MOR start) but he's just now starting AA and didn't particularly impress in the FSL. A lot of reports I read said lefty reliever is likely. I hope they give him every chance to stick as a starter.

 

Added my thoughts in bold. I think what stands out from a lot of y'alls comments in the desire to know about high draft picks and big trade acquisitions that didn't pan out. Simply put, our system has come far enough along where we don't need to discuss the crappy players. Seaton for example really no longer merits discussion on a 'top' prospects list while 2 years ago his 2nd round stature meant we had to.

 

My opinion on the DSL is that those prospects aren't interesting until they at least play ball in America (GCL or higher). There's just too much extrapolation and those guys are mostly 16-18 years old. If I wanted to see instructional baseball, I'd walk over to Galveston Ball and watch the JV team. I'd see much higher level ball watching local high school 24-5A games between Ball (Nick Williams), Clear Creek (Cosart's brother) and Clear Lake.

I feel the same way about the GCL. Raw 18 y/o high schoolers or former DSL players. It's mostly an instructional league too. Its true; we sent a lot of high-level prospects there. Correa, Ruiz, McCullers, etc..... Until those guys start producing and get promoted to Greenville and up I'm still not really interested. Some people are, it's just not my thing.

 

Hmm… thanks, I didn’t know a lot of that. It’s extremely difficult projecting minor league relievers. Relievers in general are subject to huge swings in their era based on a few bad outings. But when you start trying to compare a reliever with a 1.50 era in LoA to a reliever with a 3.50 era in AAA things get tough. That third spot I just picked a player and went with it. Honestly if I’d done just two relievers, Abreu might not have made the ‘best of the rest’ list. A guy like Zeid with great stuff, bad stats, and good peripherals is especially a tough one to place. I tend to favor low era at any level, provided the peripherals are decent. In the end, I’d take any of the top 5 starting prospects as busts having to pitch in the pen before I’d look at any of the relievers on my list. It was just a fun exercise ranking them.

Heh, I’m not gonna be offended if you critique the back-end of my list. That was actually a really difficult section to write because we have a) a lot of older guys underperforming b) young guys kicking ass in Rookie/Short-season leagues and c) guys I’ve never heard of (e.g. Luis Cruz) putting up good stats. While my inclusion of Sergio Perez was kind of a joke, there is a real need for a pitcher of his type in Houston. My first choice is Aneury. If Mills used a stretch reliever that could put up 3-5 innings of long relief then our bullpen wouldn’t be so damn burnt out. He’s just so obsessed with lefty/righty matchups. IT DOESN’T TAKE 5 PITCHERS TO THROW 2 INNINGS. At this point, we could actually use two stretch relievers.

 

Inside the Astros Front Office

Luhnow: Hey Millsy, you know relievers can throw multiple innings right?
Mills: Wait, what?
Luhnow: Yea, it's true.
Mills: Right, next you'll tell me having F. Rod coming in to throw three pitches doesn't save him for the next day.
Luhnow: (blank look)
Luhnow: You know, righties can pitch to righties and lefties can pitch to lefties
Mills: ....but my 'baseball for dummies' book says that's not optimal
Luhnow: facepalm