The season in review and how to fix the Rockets

My poor dog had to put up with many of my very vocal tirades due to the Rockets lack of consistency and many times very poor play. With my rubber TV brick in hand I was always ready to take out my frustration by hurling it at the TV, unfortunately there were a couple of times that the dog got in the way. Oh well another basketball season come and gone. Now its time for the off-season withdrawals to begin. I can entertain my self with the play-offs for a while but every game will be a painful reminder that my favorite team missed the post season for reasons that are almost unforgivable.

So here are my views on the season, players and what I think can be done to get us to the Promised Land next year.

The Season:

Never before can I recall a season where the ups and downs were so great. So many expectations and so many disappointments. Watching Steve Francis open the season like an all-star and then watching Yao Ming start playing like the guy we thought we drafted about the middle of November had me convinced that this team was play-off bound. There was no doubt that the Rockets were good enough to take advantage of a soft schedule during the first couple of months to win games and grow as a team, with Yao Ming, so that they would be prepared for the last half of the season which was much harder.

Of course we all know that the Rockets ended up winning some huge games against Portland, San Antonio, Sacramento and Las Angeles while losing some huge games that seemed to be sure wins against Phoenix, LA Clippers (twice), New York, Memphis, Golden State and Atlanta. The Rockets inconsistencies robbed the Rockets of the chance to have a huge 1st half of the season and put them in the position of fighting for the last play-off seat as the season came to a close.

So what happened? In my opinion there were 4 key events that hurt the continuity of the team.

1. Steve Francis started the season like a MVP. His mid range jumper was absolute money and he was using it to confuse defenders as to if he was going to stop and pop or drive to the rim. He was making 42% of his 3pt shots. During the first 6 games of the season Steve took 164 shots and made 92 shots for a field goal percentage of 56%. During those first 6 games Steve was decisive and confident even hitting the game clenching shot against Portland. Towards the end of the Portland game Steve went up for a shot or a rebound (don’t remember which) and Rasheed Wallace hit him when he was at the peak of his jump and just slammed him neck first into the hard wood. Prior to that event Steve had recorded 5 straight 50% or better shooting nights and 1 47% shooting night. In the 6 games that followed that game Steve shot for 27%, 40%, 50%, 45%, 37% and 36%. Steve has never looked the same and he has never been anywhere near as consistent as he was prior to the Wallace foul.

2. Yao Ming. In my opinion Yao Ming was both a blessing and a curse for the Rockets. For one he clearly looks like he is going to be one of the premier centers in the league for a long time. The problem is that Yao Ming played so well that Rudy T had no choice but to put him into the starting line-up. Yao Ming had not had any off-season or training camp with the Rockets and had no clearly defined role on the team. When Rudy T inserted Yao Ming into the line-up players like Steve and Cuttino were clearly confused about what their roles on the team were. The team still seems unsure to a great extent as to what there respective roles on the team are.

3. The Kenny Thomas for James Posey Trade was a major setback for the team. The trade occurred during what should have been the easiest part of the season. As a result we now had another new player trying to learn his role on the team and a whole new rotation and substitution pattern.

4. Losing Rudy T for the season was the final straw. Rudy had been trying to tighten up his rotation and find different combinations of people that played well. We were coming off of a five game winning streak and it looked like Rudy T had settled on a group of players to finish the season with as well as a rotation that worked. We were actually starting to play good basketball while setting 1 game up on Phoenix for the 8th spot and owning the tiebreaker. Of course Larry Smith took over and changed the substitution and the rotation patterns during a part of the season that left no time for adjustment. The rest is history.

There were a number of other small problems such as any time Moochie was on the floor or the fact that Eddie had not progressed quite as much during the off season as we had hopped.

My personal favorite moments of the season were…

- The throw back jersey game against Orlando
- Yao Ming’s 30pt and 16 rebound game against Dallas
- Yao Mings 27pt and 18 rebound game against San Antonio
- Steve Francis dominating the Lakers in the overtime win at home.
- Watching James Posey play through out the month of April

My least favorite moments…

- Not hearing Bill and Calvin and having to put up with the other teams biased announcers all year
- The final few minutes of the home game against Utah in December where Steve completely choked
- The consecutive games against Portland and Utah in April when the Rockets shot 29 and 30 percent from the floor.
- Phoenix’s win against San Antonio to clench the 8th play-off seat in the West
- Watching James Posey play during the months of February and January.

The Players:

Steve Francis: Signed through 2008-2009 season. The guy started out like an MVP. He was completely unstoppable and playing with more confidence than ever hitting 56% of his field goal attempts through his first 6 games. But after the Rasheed Wallace foul towards the end of the 6th game Steve has never looked the same. I think at first he was actually hurt, but by the time he started feeling better Yao Ming had been inserted into the starting line-up and Steve no longer new what his role on the team was. After four years Steve still does not look like a NBA point guard to me. Too many turn overs and too many wasted possessions by dribbling out the clock and bad passes.

Yao Ming: Signed through 2005-2006 season with a team option for 2006-2007 season. How much better would he have been if he had been able to participate in an off-season program and training camp? I don’t think that there is any question that he is going to be a premier player in the league for years to come. I see him as a first option offensive weapon that can score or find the open man. Rudy T said that he wanted Yao Ming to get at least 30 touches a game but by next season I think he should be getting many more touches than that. Everyone keeps talking about Yao Ming needing to gain upper body strength but I think his main problem is his stamina. It was always obvious when Yao Ming was suffering from a lack of energy and when that happens his whole game suffers. I think the Asian Championships are September 3rd – September 12th in Haerbin, China so I hope the Rockets hire someone to go over to China with him for the summer to work on his strength and conditioning. With out the proper strength and conditioning going into next year there is no way Yao Ming can be the focal point of the offense.

Cuttino Mobley: Signed through 2004-2005 with a player option for 2005-2006 season. Cat is clearly the most under appreciated player on the team. Every year that he has been with the team he has been asked to take a different role and adjust his game to the teams needs and every year he has done just that. He has gone from being a rookie point guard to sixth man to number 2 scoring option to number 1 scoring option to someone who did not have a clearly defined role at all. Cat is still an all-star caliber scoring threat and plays good defense. Cat has adjusted his game this year by taking fewer shots per game than at any other time since his sophomore season at 14.6. Cat does not seem to over dribble as much as he used to but his passing is still suspect and when he gets the ball he still sometimes forgets that there are 4 other players on the court. Like the Steve and Moochie he still seems to forget that the NBA uses a 24-second shot clock.

James Posey: Team has the option to extend his contract through 2003-2004 season. It’s a shame that we did not have another month or at least 4+ play-off games to evaluate this guy. He is an absolute physical specimen that can run the floor at top speed all night with out ever getting tired. He can jump out of the gym and when his head is in the game he plays defense on an all-NBA level. The problem is that for a couple of months he was absolutely horrible to watch, he had no offense at all and his defense was sporadic while he seemed to get himself into foul trouble on a regular basis. During that time he looked like he did not posses any basketball i.q. at all. However during the last month of the season all of that seemed to change. Just before Rudy T had to step down for the year Posey started playing like an all world small forward. He played great defense, shot the 3 pointer extremely well and he was clearly the Rockets best player at moving with out the ball to set up his own shots. No other Rocket gets down the floor on the fast break faster or has the ability to finish a play higher above the rim. What I enjoyed most about Posey during the last month was that he forced nothing on offense letting the game come to him but he forced everything on defense creating a lot of steals and a lot of fast breaks that ended with ally-oops.

Eddie Griffin: Signed through 2004 -2005 season with a team option for the 2005-2006 season. This had to be one of the biggest disappointments of the year. He did not appear to be a lot stronger than last year, his shot looked like a line drive, his rebounding got worse as the year went on as did his shot blocking. There was too many times where he looked lost on defense causing other players to get out of position trying to cover his mistakes. On top of all that he gets busted towards the end of the year for pot. There were still some games where he showed he could really go after rebounds and during the last month of the season it started looking like he had been working on putting some arc on his shot which helped improve his field goal percentage to .435 in April after improving it to .413 in March. Eddie is still young and still shows glimpses of what could be but he will have to do a lot of work in the off-season to work on his strength, post game, free throw shooting and adding some arc to his outside shot.

Mo Taylor: Signed through 2006-2007 season. After coming on strong offensively in February and March he tapered off in April. He looked like he was really starting to get his legs back under him in the second half of the season. He is clearly one of the Rockets better offensive players. This year was unlike his earlier years because he did most of his scoring close to the basket with a baby hook as opposed to the 16 to 18 foot jump shot that was his main weapon in the past. If Eddie does not make big improvements next year I expect Maurice to regain his starting spot in the line-up.

Kelvin Cato: Signed through 2005-2006 season. With out a doubt he was the Rockets most improved player this year. Big physical and very athletic he went after rebounds with authority. Kelvin started playing well about halfway through the 2001-2002 year and has continued to improve. If the Rockets had not drafted Yao Ming he would have been one of the better rebounding and defensive centers in the league. Cato moves to the basket with out the ball as well as any center in the league getting highlight real dunks in almost every game. For the 5th straight year Cato has shot over 50% from the floor because he takes such high percentage shots but this year we have seen him start to step away from the basket to take the little 10 to 12 foot jumper with some success.

Glen Rice: Signed through 2003-2004 season. I think he out performed most people’s expectations this year, particularly after he went on the injured list around the middle of the year. When Rice came back he played his best basketball as a Houston Rocket. He shot close to 50% from behind the arc for the months of February and March and became a big part of the rotation finishing the games on the floor before Larry Smith took over as coach. Glen looks like he could have something left as a reserve off of the bench but entering his last year of a contract that pays him about 10 mil next season he could be worth a lot more to someone looking to free up money for ’04.

Moochie Norris: Signed through 2006-2007 season. Signed through 2006-2007 season. Signed through 2006-2007 season. Signed through 2006-2007 season. Imagine Les repeating that sentence over and over as he is banging his head against a wall. There are no kind words to describe the kind of year Moochie Norris has had. Just look at how his minutes per game have continued to drop as the year progressed. The first couple of months he played about 20 minutes a game, about 16 minutes a game the second two months and finally only about 13 minutes a game the final two months. I think the only way to get rid of Moochie would be to trade him in a deal with someone else. The little dribbler still can’t count to 24 and still likes to play 1 on 4 basketball when there are much better options on the floor than him. I can’t believe how I wanted Moochie resigned a couple of years ago. With his long contract he is the new Matt Maloney.

Terence Morris: Signed through 2003-2004 season. Terence just got caught in a numbers game. After a good preseason he was not able to establish anything at the beginning of the season due to an ankle sprain. The improvement on his outside shot was unmistakable this year unfortunately he was not able to show it off much this year. He was the 3rd option behind Kenny Thomas, James Posey and Glen Rice for most of the year. Even if Glen Rice is not on the roster next year Terence could find himself as the odd man out since he does not bring the same amount of energy to the game as Posey and Boki could start getting minutes as the primary back up next year since Rudy T has already referred to him as this years 1st round draft pick.

Bostjan Nachbar: Signed through 2005-2006 with a team option for 2006-2007 season. Is there a bigger wild card on the team? Boki’s level of success could dictate so many things about the Rockets direction in the off-season. We know almost nothing about what he is capable of doing on the basketball court so this off-season will be especially important for him to work on his game and participate in the summer leagues. Will he be the next Peja Stojakovic, Mirsad Turckan or somewhere in between?

Jason Collier: Restricted free agent. If the Rockets decide not to trade Kelvin Cato in the off-season and do not anticipate trading sometimes during the regular season then I would think that they would just let Collier walk. Collier did have some good minutes during the year when he had the opportunity but he just did not get any meaningful action. The good part about Collier is that he can play either center or power forward but it means nothing if he collects his game checks while on the injured list.

Tito Maddox: Restricted free agent. When I read that Tito was only signed through 2002-2003 season I was surprised because I thought he had a 2-year contract. Although Maddox is a restricted free agent he does not have bird rights with anyone because he has not been in the league long enough so I would suspect that they would have to go into there exception money to sign him if they want to keep him since the team is over the salary cap. Tito could be an extremely important piece on the Rockets team if they decide to keep him do to the ineffectiveness of Moochie Norris.

The Rockets ended the year with a cap of about 50 million dollars, which puts them about 19 out of 29 teams for the highest salary. Portland finished the season at number 1 with a payroll of about 105 million followed by 2. NY at about 93 million, 3. Dallas at about 72 million and 4. Sacramento at about 70 million. As expected the L.A. Clippers finished in the 29th spot at 42 million. No team finished below the 40 million-dollar salary cap but the Clippers do have 9 free agents (4 are restricted including Brand, Miller, Odom and Maggette). So in keeping a little perspective the Rockets are not bad in comparison with the rest of the NBA as far as salary cap goes. Steve will get a big raise this year but nothing major other than that as far as I know and the Rockets may be able to move some salary this year for various reasons. Rice should be a hot commodity at some point in the season for the cap space he will provide in 2004.

all contract info was researched at “Patricia's Various Basketball Stuff”

What must be done in the off-season?

The first thing that must be accomplished is taking care of the coaching situation and that starts with Rudy T. Will he be healthy enough to dedicate himself to next season? We can’t have another year where our coach has to leave the team for the final month of the season. It is reasonable to believe that the Rockets would have been good for a couple of more wins under Rudy T than under Larry Smith. When Rudy went out we were playing our best basketball of the season and when Larry took over we immediately began playing our worst. We had the 2 worst offensive nights in team history against Portland and Utah under the guidance of Larry Smith and it cost us the play-offs.

If Les is convinced that Rudy T is healthy and can completely dedicate himself to a full year then I don’t have a problem bringing him back. But if there is any question at all then we need to either put Rudy in the front office or give him his gold watch and a nice little ceremony at the half time of one of the games next year. If Rudy T does not come back then we need to go outside the organization for a coach. Larry Smith is horrible as a head coach and clearly not the answer.

Ideally the best way to improve would come from with in. Eddie Griffin spends the off-season improving his game and finally meets expectations rebounding, blocking shots, playing good defense and hitting better than 45% of his shots. Bostjan Nachbar is earns his playing time and is unleashed as the starting small forward showing a deadly accuracy from outside and enough athleticism to take it to the basket and fly above the rim. James Posey is moved to the starting 2 spot playing great defense, hitting his open 3s and running the floor on the fast break finishing with highlight reel slam-dunks. Steve Francis starts getting us into our offense early into the shot clock, making his mid range jumpers while being the best scoring point guard in the league. Yao Ming shows up stronger and in better condition than ever. The Rockets run the offense through Yao Ming and he dominates the league. Cat resumes his role as super sub bringing lightning off of the bench. MoT and Cato continue to provide strong front court relief.

If we only lived in a perfect Rocket world.

The other options are by getting into the draft if we have something of value to trade. Could we get high enough to grab T.J. Ford if he comes out? T.J. is the next coming of Jason Kidd, he just comes in a smaller package. T.J. sees the floor better than any point guard to come out of the draft since Kidd and he does not turn the ball over. There is no one else in the draft that really excites me outside of Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony and we are not getting close to either of those guys.

Clippers anyone?

Free agency is the next option. One player that is a free agent that might be available to us is Eric Piatkowski. There is nothing great about him except that he can really shoot the rock, which would stretch defenses for Yao Ming. Imagine a Matt Harpring type of player on the Rockets, someone that does not dominate the ball and will hit the open shot from behind the arc or off of a pick. Want to know why the Jazz are good year after year? Even with 40-year-old men? It’s because they identify players that can hit an open shot, play as a team and bring them in. Stockton, Hornacek, Harpring, Malone, Kirilenko are all players that will hit the open shot if you don’t get in their face. They aren’t going to make a career out driving around you so they pass the ball. Houston needs a few players like that.

Some other possibilities are bringing in some other position players.

Andre Miller would allow Steve to move to the 2 spot where he would not have to concern himself with running the offense. This would allow Cat to move to the bench as a sub if we did not have to include him in a trade. This solution still does not solve our outside shooting problems though.

Lamar could come in and be a type of point forward. He has better overall skills than James Posey but he is not as athletic and does not play as good defense. If James can play next year like he did during the last month of the season then Lamar would be a waste of time. However, as is the case of Andre Miller, Lamar does nothing to solve our outside shooting problems.

Elton Brand could team with Yao Ming to form the NBA’s top front court and then we could just pound the ball down low. Particularly if Yao Ming comes back stronger and with greater conditioning so he is not exhausted after running the floor for 2 minutes.

The fact is that Piatkowski is probably the only one of the four mentioned that we would have a chance to get with out a sign and trade. Do we have enough to get Sterling to trade one of his top stars to us? Will Sterling really let all of his top free agents walk?

Michael Olowokandi is almost as good as gone after what happened to him last summer so would Donald Sterling be interested in Kelvin Cato as a replacement? Cato only made 6.5 million last year and is still signed for the next 3 years. If you look around the league at what the other starting centers make that can get 10 boards a game and play defense Cato would be a bargain at 6.5 over the next 3 years. That is only about $500,000 more than what Kandi (who made 6.06mil) this past season. Could Cato be a catalyst in a sign and trade with the clippers?

How about Glen Rice? Glen could offer his assistance shooting 3s for a year and then give the Clippers 10 million in cap space next year. Certainly you would have to sweeten the deal with draft picks or some other players but doesn’t it sound like the kind of move Sterling is always looking for?

Anyway the point is that if Donald Sterling stays true to form he will not keep many if any of his high powered free agents. According to Mike Lipetzky at real gm the biggest non-rookie contract that Donald Sterling has ever signed off on was the 3 year 15 million dollar contract he gave Piatkowski 3 years ago! Knowing this we have got to look into the cache of talent that exists with in the Clippers organization to find out what is available and what we can afford.

Finally

There are many different directions that the team can go in the off-season and many different strategies that we can use to restructure the team. However, I think it would be wrong to blow up the current group of players outside of making one or two non-blockbuster moves. And while we always have to be prepared for the Elton Brand type of trade should it come along we should continue to expect the current group of players to work on the deficiencies in their games that were so clearly exposed this past season.

Yao Ming – Strength and conditioning
Steve Francis – Decision making, defense and outside shooting
Eddie Griffin – Strength, shooting, post game and free throw shooting
Cuttino Mobley – Outside shooting and decision making
James Posey – Outside shooting

And please add some outside shooters regardless if its Piatkowski or someone else.