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[The Ringer] Peak Rockets > Peak Warriors

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by lnchan, Sep 18, 2018.

  1. lnchan

    lnchan Member
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    https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/9/18/17873104/best-nba-teams-prime-ranking

    Which Team Would Be Best If Every Player Was in His Prime?
    Group I: The Unsurprising Best
    2. Golden State Warriors, 60.6 wins (’14 Kevin Durant)
    1. Houston Rockets, 60.9 wins (’09 Chris Paul)

    The margin between these two teams couldn’t be slimmer. Here is the full breakdown of their 12-man rosters:

    Peak Warriors
    Player Win Shares Season
    Kevin Durant 19.2 2013-14
    Stephen Curry 17.9 2015-16
    Draymond Green 11.1 2015-16
    Andre Iguodala 9.6 2007-08
    Klay Thompson 8.8 2014-15
    DeMarcus Cousins 7.9 2013-14
    Shaun Livingston 4.6 2015-16
    Jonas Jerebko 4.4 2009-10
    Jordan Bell 2.9 2017-18
    Kevon Looney 2.8 2017-18
    Quinn Cook 1.6 2017-18
    Danuel House 0.6 2017-18


    Peak Rockets
    Player Win Shares Season
    Chris Paul 18.3 2008-09
    James Harden 16.4 2014-15
    Nene Hilario 10.8 2009-10
    Carmelo Anthony 10.7 2013-14
    Clint Capela 10.2 2017-18
    Gerald Green 6.1 2013-14
    P.J. Tucker 6.1 2013-14
    Eric Gordon 5.3 2010-11
    Brandon Knight 4.5 2014-15
    James Ennis 3.1 2017-18
    Marquese Chriss 1.8 2016-17
    Michael Carter-Williams 1.3 2013-14


    The Warriors have a slightly better starting five and DeMarcus Cousins gives them an undeniable edge as the sixth man, but Golden State’s bench lags behind Houston’s at each spot from 7-12. That might not matter as much in a Peak NBA playoff series, but it does in the regular season, where teams must go 12-plus-deep to survive a full schedule. The final difference is small enough, though, that even a minor adjustment to how minutes are allocated would flip the result.

    Of note for the actual 2018-19 season is that the bulk of the Warriors’ roster is comprised of players either in or near their prime, while the top of Houston’s depth chart is full of players who peaked a half-decade or longer ago. That could prove impactful as the two teams battle for Western Conference supremacy again following their seven-game playoff series last spring; Carmelo Anthony might not be the answer for Houston in a real NBA game over the next nine months.

    He’s the answer in fake NBA games, though—remove Melo from the Peak Rockets and the Warriors edge comfortably ahead of Houston, while the Rockets tumble to third place behind Minnesota, too. It’s as we all predicted last month: Carmelo Anthony would make the difference in the next Warriors–Rockets duel.

    There’s only one more player who could make a bigger difference—just one more wrinkle worth mentioning about the final standing order. If the Wolves did add Noah to round out their Timber-Bulls core, their peak complement would leap to first place, with 62.5 wins. Do it, Thibs; this is the closest you’ll ever come to a title with that long-aged group.
     
    #1 lnchan, Sep 18, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  2. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    i refuse to believe the worriers are not no 1
     
  3. BHannes2BHonest

    BHannes2BHonest Contributing Member

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    media conspiracy? :confused:
     
    don grahamleone likes this.
  4. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Eh I think they're underrating Iguodala in his prime. He was a solid second/third option (picture a cross between Gordon and Ariza) who got stuck playing as the primary option in Philly and Denver
     
    roslolian likes this.
  5. kevC

    kevC H-Town Bowen
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    This is a real dumb way to do this. Taking total win shares ignores all kinds of context.
     
    BigggReddd, Sen89 and heypartner like this.
  6. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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  7. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    Interesting, but irrelevant.

    More relevant is which team would be better if it played to its current potential. On paper, that might still be the Warriors. But I think Houston is still a bad matchup for them, and gets them to play below their full potential.

    Course, for the Warriors, their full potential includes the full force and back of the NBA and its officials, which is hard to overcome.
     
    hakeem94 likes this.
  8. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I know. Sum of Win Shares across a team is supposed to come very close to the Team's actual wins that year.

    So, GSW as a team beat that 60.6 "Peak Performance" in '15, '16 and '17 (by huge margins), and we scored a 63.5 as a team last year. Think about it. Compare the Ringer using a collection of Peak Performance years to the WSs of actual teams, and you'll find the Warriors shattered 60.6 in '15, '16 and 17.

    Also, curious foot note: if we subtract Ryno, Ariza, Luc and Tarik from our 63.5 total WSs last year, and add the new players, we score a 54.4. I guess that's where the O/U number of 54 Wins is coming from, that we see posted. They basically are just recalculated total WS for the players scores from last ;year. lulz
     
    #8 heypartner, Sep 18, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  9. kevC

    kevC H-Town Bowen
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    At the very least, they should use WS/48 and extrapolate with reasonable amount of minutes per player.
     
  10. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    Everyone forgot about PRIME Nene.
     
    hakeem94 likes this.
  11. Swiss Roll

    Swiss Roll Member

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    I like the idea, just use WS/48 instead of total WS, Harden's best season was last year, not 2014-15.

    Warriors:
    2015-16 Curry: .318
    2013-14 Durant: .295
    2015-16 Green: .190
    2014-15 Thompson: .172
    2016-17 Iguodala: .167
    2013-14 Cousins: .166

    Everyone after is below .150


    Rockets:
    2008-09 Paul: .292
    2017-18 Harden: .289
    2017-18 Capela: .242
    2010-11 Nene: .201
    2012-13 Anthony: .184

    Everyone after is below .150
     
    don grahamleone likes this.
  12. ClutchCityReturns

    ClutchCityReturns Contributing Member

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    Curious where last year's team would have been projected based on raw 2016-17 WS's. I'm guessing well under 65...
     
  13. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    A quick look estimate is Morey added about 19.7 WSs to the team. It was a huge summer.

    The outgoing winshares in the Paul trade was about 14.7. So, without actually adding up the 2016-17 WS (let's assume they were 55 to match the Wins), then projected WSs calculated via trades ands signings is 60. The team achieved 63.5 WSs, and won 65 actual.
     
    ClutchCityReturns likes this.
  14. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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    Somehow the peak of the Worriers were much longer and they had like 4 Allstars carrying the load.

    Thus resulting in the Championships and obviously their management must be top notch as well.

    The NBA game is one of tear and wear, nobody is coming away without an injury.

    This year it is going to be interesting as the Worriers when healthy have 5 top guys in their starting 5 while the Rox have 2 or 3 positions with HOFers and Alltime Greats, best of their positions.

    Worriers still have the advantage of keeping their roster together and having played a lot longer with each other.

    I wish Kerr would retire for a change!
     
  15. Mr. Space City

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    warriors have prime refs so they get the edge.
     
  16. tinman

    tinman You want to protect the world
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    I thought this was about shoes
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    This math exercise is a nice way of saying that our guys used to be better than they are today.
     
  18. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Don't see how DeMarcus doesn't push the warriors over the edge here. They have 6 all stars. The rockets have 3 or 4 if you say Capela is an all star.
     
  19. ParaSolid

    ParaSolid Member

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    heyp, based on your post, the sum of win shares projects wins pretty accurately. Looks like we could see a 55 win team next season then?
     
  20. tinman

    tinman You want to protect the world
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