The inevitable September Collapse of the Texas Rangers

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by SooneRockStro, Aug 30, 2016.

  1. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    If the Rangers can keep their current run differential, they should play 50-50 ball for the rest of the season. Their final record would be 94-68.

    If the Rangers can keep their winning percentage, their final record would be 96-66.

    If the Astros can keep their winning percentage, their final record would be 86-76.
     
  2. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Updated MLB playoff probabilities: Who's favored in wild-card races?

    <PRE>AL West
    Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN%
    Texas Rangers 94 68 -- .580 99.0% 0.8% 99.8% 14.4%
    Houston Astros 86 76 8 .531 0.9% 21.2% 22.1% 1.0%
    Seattle Mariners 83 79 11 .512 0.1% 5.4% 5.5% 0.2%
    Los Angeles Angels 72 90 22 .444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Oakland Athletics 70 92 24 .432 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%</PRE>

    Same old, same old in the AL West. The Houston Astros will not catch the Texas Rangers, despite Texas' inability to get its run differential much above parity. There just isn't enough time left, and the Rangers have a stronger roster than they did in April. Texas is the odds-on favorite to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and as crazy as it seems that the Rangers would get home-field advantage over the Cubs in a theoretical World Series because a Giants starting pitcher allowed two home runs in a July exhibition game, well, that's the wacky world we live in.

    <PRE>AL wild card
    Team WC%
    Boston Red Sox 52.3%
    Baltimore Orioles 44.2%
    Toronto Blue Jays 28.3%
    Detroit Tigers 27.8%
    Houston Astros 21.2%
    Kansas City Royals 7.6%
    New York Yankees 6.6%
    Cleveland Indians 5.8%
    Seattle Mariners 5.4%
    Texas Rangers 0.8%</PRE>

    As mentioned above, the biggest story here is the Royals' getting back into the playoff hunt. Although their number of games back wasn't insurmountable by itself, the number of teams ahead of them was a daunting task, but unlike teams such as the Astros, they still have a realistic, if unlikely, chance at the divisional title. The biggest obstacle for the Royals is that the underlying issues with the starting rotation still exist: Danny Duffy is a fine starter and sneaking into the Cy Young conversation, but Edinson Volquez, Ian Kennedy and Yordano Ventura have been up and down all season, and it's really hard to count on Dillon Gee to continue that August ERA (3.69).

    With one of the wild-card spots likely to be one of the losers in the AL East race, the other AL wild card has a relatively high target to get home-field advantage for the play-in game. ZiPS estimates that the average first wild-card team will finish the season with 90.2 wins. For the second wild card, 88.3 wins is the break-even point, simply because with so many teams involved, the chances are someone goes 18-8 or so in September.

    What's striking is how few of the teams in the wild-card race made big deadline moves. The biggest moves were by the Indians, Rangers and Cubs, all of which have comparatively easy playoff races (especially the latter two). We're almost guaranteed to have a team or two miss the wild card by a game and face a painful winter of what-ifs.
     
  3. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Whether or not they can sustain it for the rest of the year is immaterial. I think though, that points differential reflects fundamental roster issues that will be exposed when it comes playoff time. If the Royals had the worst pitching to win the World Series in years, then the Rangers have an even worse pitching staff.
     
  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    While I obviously have no illusions - the Astros can cut the lead to 2.5. So... no, the Rangers don't need to win at their current clip - but they need to beat the Astros at least... twice will probably do it, right? And then be .500-ish in their other games...
     
  5. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    I don't know, I'd rather we both make the playoffs and the Rangers save the ultimate collapse for October. That would be fun.
     
  6. PokeJ

    PokeJ Member

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    no such thing as a collapse in October. 2nd year in a row that a team no one expected to be playing in October is.
     
  7. Houstunna

    Houstunna Contributing Member

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    Rangers are a good percentage luck, but they have hitters. Unfortunately, they're so far ahead we'd need 5-1 (h2h), minimum, to have chance.

    We have our best squad of the season playing now, which helps. I think we'll go 3-3, and finish 5-6 GB.
     
  8. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    King Felix going for Mariners today against Martin Perez. On paper this is a no-brainer pick, but the Rangers pull games out of their ass so who knows.
     
  9. jev5555

    jev5555 Contributing Member

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    Didn't we do this with the Rockets?
    How'd that turn out?
    Let's just let them play the games and let the chips fall where they may.
     
  10. Nimo

    Nimo Member

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    There's also the trend of the Rangers beating the Astros recently. You're assuming both trends end.
     
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Those of you doing it can try to rationalize all you want a statistical anomaly. The thing about anomalies is that they cease to be such when duplicated over time. If its thought that September will suddenly change for the Rangers, while anythings possible, its hopeful thinking at best, delusional at worst.

    Not long ago, I did take a look at their past, and the RS to win% discrepancy didn't start till last season. Perhaps next season will see their 1 run win% fall. Maybe, maybe not. One thing is certain. We are in the mess we are due to our head-to-head against them. Make that one thing even, and we are in the division race.
     
  12. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    Rangers would almost have to lose every single game by 1-run for the rest of the season to get their run differential to align with their record.
     
  13. PokeJ

    PokeJ Member

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    Or out score thier opponents by 13 every game for the rest of the year
     
  14. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I hate the Rangers more than I hate Satan...that being said...

    they've effing owned us for way more than 1 season now. And there's nothing more bitch-ass than a bunch of Houston fans talking about how getting owned is merely a product of luck. So tired of that ish. So tired of hearing that.

    Just win. Win a game against this team. Astros Bloggers out there talking about how the Astros are better than the Rangers. Really? All I see is us in 2nd by 8 games or so.

    So. Tired. Of. It.

    yeah...it's lucky to come back when you're down 35-3. It's lucky to win a WS by a bunch of 1 run games. But none of that makes me feel any better. None of that keeps me warm at night. They're busy hanging up banners now, and our fan base is all in on math. Yet to see a pennant or a parade celebrating a formula. Let's print up tshirts because math says we should be winning.

    Gomez handed them another win today, by the way. The most embarrassing fan base in Houston is the Astros fan base. And the Astros are my favorite pro sports franchise. The excuses for mediocrity are unbearable.

    EFFING WIN ALREADY!!!! 50 plus years!!!!! WIN SOMETHING HOLY ISH!!!!!!
     
    #34 MadMax, Aug 31, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
    1 person likes this.
  15. Buck Turgidson

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    The Rangers are better than we are, they've beaten us like a rented mule for about 7 years.

    I have completely run out of sh!t to talk to my SA/Fort Worth/Austin Ranger friends.

    This is like the Oilers getting manhandled by the Cowboys every year. Or the Aggies dominating the Horns or something. The Spurs I can respect, these other guys hell no.
     
  16. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Absolutely. It's laughable. There's a segment of the fan base that has become intolerable because they've convinced themselves Pythagorean and Copernicus swear we are a better team. Mind numbing and tired.
     
  17. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    curious to see what OP will say when the Rangers (more likely than not) smack us this weekend in Arlington, further adding to their division lead and sending the Astros wild card hopes down.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    Yet still I think to myself, "This is where it all turns around!"
     
  19. sugrlndkid

    sugrlndkid Member

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    Personally, think the best way to approach them is to do everything opposite of what we do with the rest of the league. Stop shifting, look to get on base/using a small ball approach...Throw some pitches at Odor...:)

    they've owned us... Got to psychologically destroy them in order to beat them.

    They have capitalized on our mistakes...and we have not done the same when they screw up. Chance is there...but it is looking very remote.
     
  20. PokeJ

    PokeJ Member

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    Rangers thinking of going to 6 man rotation for the rest of the year. If so Leeis starts Sunday and the Astros miss Hammel and Darvish.
     
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