The inevitable September Collapse of the Texas Rangers

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by SooneRockStro, Aug 30, 2016.

  1. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    I heard today the Rangers are on pace to set an MLB record for 1 run wins. They are an absurd 29-8 in 1 run games. They have a mere +8 run differential as opposed to a +50 for the Astros. They also have an unsustainable win percentage against the Astros. The Astros are going to crush their souls over the coming 6 games head to head and ride high into a division victory.

    There is one thing certain in the universe and that is math. The Rangers are on an unsustainable pace in many respects. The Rangers are 78-54, while their EXPECTED W/L is 67-65. They are an unreal 11 games above expectation. This is equivalent to the craps shooter who shoots for 2 hours without sevening out.

    The Astros are 70-62, while their EXPECTED W/L is 72-60. So one team is absurdly outperforming, while another is slightly underperforming. By the end of the season, order will be restored and the infidels from Dallas will be watching the Astros play October baseball from home.
     
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  2. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I like the optimism, but highly unlikely.
     
  3. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Not really man. 7.5 games disappears quickly when you beat a team head up. The Rangers have been living a fantasy all season, and it should come to an end very soon.
     
  4. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    8-7 Rangers win. LOL. So ridiculous. 30-8 now in 1-runners. Won't continue.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Can't believe they left their closet in for a 6 out save following a tough 24 pitch 8th.
     
  6. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    It's so crazy man. No words. This ish has to stop.
     
  7. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Now 79-54 vs. 67-66 expected. Wow.
     
  8. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    I do agree that run differential is an eye opener and they are lucky to be 7.5 up on us. But that is a huge difference to make up in a month. We will need to sweep a series and win the other and that gives us an outside shot. The wildcard is the way we get in. I would love for you to be right though. We are better then them even though they have had our number.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The Rangers are winning the division. They also exceeded their expected W/L last year as well.
     
  10. underrated015

    underrated015 Member

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    Texas can get a hit whenever they want to. That being said, we need to take 2 out of 3 there.
     
  11. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    30-8 in one run games doesn't have anything to do with skill. It is 100% luck with run sequencing.
     
  12. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Yup, they just need to keep winning and not worry about Texas pulling games out of their ass daily.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    The other day, when Musgrove was pitching, you said "Musgrove has a perfect game through 3". Nobody needed you to say that, everyone who was watching was paying attention, but you said it anyway. Next inning...2-out base hit.

    There may not be enough ****ing rum in Jamaica to keep Jobu happy if you keep this up....
     
  14. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Lol. Keep what up? Superstitions are completely irrational. I started talking about Fiers no-hitter in the 4th inning. He still threw it. The Rangers are going to have a collapse for the ages in September.
     
  15. Buck Turgidson

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    No sh!t, that's why they're called superstitions.
     
  16. Major

    Major Member

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    This is a good analogy. And there's nothing stopping that shooter from rolling for another 30 minutes.

    Of course this pace of one-run game is unsustainable in the long haul. But there's no reason it can't be sustained another month - just as was true a month ago and yet they kept doing it in August.

    Besides which, with a 8.5 game lead, they don't need to sustain it. They can play 0.500 baseball the rest of the way as their expected W-L suggests and it would still be nearly impossible for us to win the division.
     
  17. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    The one issue with that logic is when teams LOSE leads and winnable games, we for SURE label them CHOKERS. We dont even call it luck/"bad luck", its considered a direct lack of ability and losing.

    If you can label chokers as losers, can't you label overachievers as legit winners? Begrudgingly said, theyre just getting it done situationally better than everyone.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    Hey! I've been on that table, I love that table.
     
  19. conquistador#11

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    I just think when six hitters in the lineup are close to an .800 ops, then that traffic around the bases is going to get knocked in for a run more times down the order than most teams.

    I got nothing, jerry.
     
  20. tmactoyao

    tmactoyao Member

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    Agree that they are lucky, but also have to say that they are situationally a clutch team. Very similar to the Royals. They are truly never out of a game. It has a lot to do with their offensive philosophy. Pretty ridiculous considering how bad their pitching is and that the offense usually more than makes up for it.

    Baseball is an extremely lucky sport and even in the age of advanced stats, if you put the ball in play, anything can happen...
     
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