The Houston Rockets will win the NBA championship in the next two or three years.

Best is yet to come
for Yao and Rockets
Chinese center showing talent
that could bring Houston a title
In just his second NBA season, Yao Ming (11) of the Rockets has elevated his play to where with the exception of Shaquille O'Neal, he is the best center in the league, says Matt Guokas of NBCSports.com.
COMMENTARY

By Matt Guokas

NBCSports.com contributor

Updated: 7:19 p.m. ET Feb. 28, 2004I place Tim Duncan and Jermaine O'Neal in the power forward category, so right now Yao Ming is the second-best center in the NBA next to Shaquille O'Neal. It's not inconceivable that with Yao the Rockets could win an NBA title in the next two or three years. But for that to happen a key factor will be what the future holds for the league's elite teams, especially the Lakers and Kings, and whether they stay strong.

IT'S NOT JUST
ONE-ON-ONE

In terms of winning a championship, it won't come down to Yao against Shaq, but rather Yao and the strength of his supporting cast against Shaq and the strength of those who play alongside him.

If the Lakers lose Kobe Bryant after this season, whether it's due to his not re-signing or his having to serve a jail term if convicted at his trial, it's a whole new game for the Lakers.

Shaq needs to be teamed with another mega star or future championships aren't happening for the Lakers.

If the Kings don't win it all this year, they could still have a good chance at a championship in the near future, but to win one they need to have both Chris Webber and Brad Miller stay healthy and play at their best.

And there's no guarantee of that.

I have to like the Rockets' chances at becoming champions before too long because they have talent in the backcourt with Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley and obviously talent, skill and size in the middle with Yao.

Add to that very good role players coming off the bench and Houston probably just needs to tweak its roster a bit to better its title chances -- picking up if it can a feisty swingman,who is a top defender and a big forward, preferably one who's a banger and can muscle, be physical and do the dirty work inside.

USING YAO WISELY
The Rockets style of of play is ideal for going deep into the playoffs.

On offense they attack slowly and deliberately, using a run-when-we-can approach

If they can't get out on the break, they play halfcourt basketball and look to punch it through to Yao.

That's the formula that works in the postseason.

A key to winning a title is being able to consistently adhere to that style of play.

When Jeff Van Gundy took over coaching the Rockets at the start of this season, he made it abundantly clear that the team's offense had to run through Yao.

That doesn't necessarily mean an increase in scoring or assists for Yao, although he has increased his point production from a year ago, but more so it means that the Rockets -- by using their big man in this way -- are forcing opposing defenses to react more.

That will in turn make Yao a better passer, offensive rebounder and he'll move better without the ball when he gets up against double-teams, an area in which he needs to improve.

I think the constant battle for Van Gundy is getting Francis and Mobley to deliver the ball to Yao efficiently and frequently.

If they do so, they'll both learn how to play off Yao and they'll find that their own games will get easier.

There's a bit of buzz that Francis could be gone from the Rockets after the season if he doesn't come around to what Van Gundy is preaching.

I wouldn't doubt that, but if Francis is smart, he'll get with the plan because that will not only benefit his game and Yao's game, it will make the Rockets a better team.

MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Yao made rapid strides in his game throughout his rookie season and as he gains more experience, it is just going to get easier for him.

I think Yao has far surpassed the expectations people had of him when he entered the NBA last season.

The general perception then was that Yao was going to be a project, that at 7-foot-6 he was going to be awkward and the NBA game was going to be hard for him -- and that it would take years of work for him to become the player he already is.

But once people saw enough of him, few could believe he has such a graceful feel for and skill about the game.

What's impressed me the most about Yao is his understanding of the game and his ability to communicate with teammates and coaches given the obvious language barrier that exists.

Rudy Tomjanovich, who coached Yao last season, told me the young center had to be told something only once and he got it.

That was a little surprising to me since I thought communication would be a bigger barrier for Yao.

The key challenge facing Yao is to play more physical and to get tougher.

At this season's All-Star game, Yao said he thought the area he had improved the most in was his assertiveness and aggressiveness and I have seen that.

He is more feisty this season, in part because he is getting hit more as opponents are testing him, but he seems to be responding to it in a professional way and keeping his cool.

It's not in Yao's personality to play a physical game, so to see him make some of the adjustments he has made in that regard is somewhat remarkable.

Despite his trying, Yao may not get much more forceful in his game, but I think all of his skills will get more refined.

NO SECOND COMING OF SHAQ
Yao has more basketball skill than Shaq.

That's taking every facet of the game into consideration, scoring, passing, presence, defense, size, etc.

Yao's footwork, passing ability, touch and perimeter shooting are better than Shaq's.

What Yao can't match or exceed Shaq in is pure power.

But I wouldn't make any attempt to beef up Yao.

He already has a very strong low base, which is important to big players as far as the ability to establish low-post position.

His legs and thighs are amply strong and his upper body will get stronger as he gets older.

To try and muscle him up would be foolish.

There will never come a day when Yao proves as dominant as Shaq because Shaq's dominance is tied so much to his physical presence -- his body, size and power.

But to win a title, the Rockets don't need Yao to become a clone of Shaq.

They just need him to keep improving and from what we've seen this season, that's exactly what he's doing.

© 2004 MSNBC Interactive

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"THE BIG BROADCAST OF 2006: AFTER TWELVE YEARS OF PERILOUS AGONY, THE HOUSTON ROCKETS ARE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS. CENTER YAO MING LED THE WAY WITH 34.5 POINTS, 13.5 REBOUND, 5.86 ASSISTS, 4.2 BLOCKS IN A STUNNING PERFORMANCE. HE IS THE NBA'S MVP AND FINALS MVP. CONGRATULATIONS. IT'S YOURS ENJOY IT."