The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

In 2 hours, 45 minutes, the sovereignty of the UK will be completely restored and there is nothing that the EU will be able to do to stop that. Any agreement that the UK enters into will be cancellable at a moment's notice, with the approval of anyone in the EU being neither requested or required.

Today is the UK's independence day from the EU. And it is also the day when the EU has to recognize that one of its primary member states has just successfully seceded from the union for the first time in history. This is a very big day - for all of them.

 

The UK has officially left the EU.

Congratulations to everyone in the UK for a well earned celebration of a hard win victory.

Brexit has been officially accomplished, with a deal. All the people who insisted it could not or would not be done were wrong, yet again.

 

Verhofstadt is right, though. The EU is in a sense at a stage similar to what we were after the initial articles of confederation, which were first adopted in 1777 but not ratified until 1881, and were eventually replaced by our current US Constitution in 1787. We were not an effective "union" until after the Revolutionary war was won and the US Constitution was adopted, ratified and put into effect.

The EU was never sold to be a union like we are. But that is what Verhofstadt is proposing. The Euro zone rules (the shared currency) have been bent and deformed to the point of near absurdity. The trade zone always made a lot of sense and probably likely still does, but the EU has pushed their under the radar agenda for a political union through their authority for this to a degree that has caused great pushback and resentment in countries throughout the EU. This is not limited to the UK by any means.

The EU either needs to:
1) pull back to being a free trade zone, without the aspirations to develop a United States of Europe (including the push for cultural and political integration) and they need to rethink the Euro zone rules and membership, or
2) they need to go all the way and become the United States of Europe. This middle place that they are in now is unsustainable.

If they try to push ahead for full integration into the United States of Europe, it appears that they are very likely to fail spectacularly at the current time. But with leaders like Verhoofstadt, they idea of pulling back is inconceivable. So more than likely, they are going to have to muddle through a lengthy period with some rather intractible problems as their status quo.

It is not a good situation for the EU to be in and the UK has done well to get themselves out of it.

 

California, you mean. Let them secede.

 

Boris Johnson has come out today and announced that there will be full customs checks on goods from the EU beginning apparently in January 2021. This is being seen as the UK preparing for the worst in an effort to build up some additional leverage in the upcoming trade negotiations with the EU. Some might even suggest he is posturing and being a bit bellicose about it.

Johnson to impose full customs checks on goods from EU – report

Boris Johnson intends to impose full customs checks on all goods coming into the UK from the EU in a break with previous government policy, according to reports.

“We are planning full checks on all EU imports – export declarations, security declarations, animal health checks and all supermarket goods to pass through border inspection posts,” the Daily Telegraph reported a senior Whitehall source as saying. “This will double the practical challenge at the border in January 2021.”

The paper reports that businesses will be informed of the policy on 10 February. If confirmed, the new policy would mean physical checks on food such as tomatoes, cheese and meat coming in from the EU, including beef and dairy from Ireland, as well as paperwork on imports.

Such a dramatic change in policy could be seen as a hardening of position to gain leverage in upcoming negotiations as the trade-off between access to the single market and regulatory alignment will be a key element of talks.​

The Johnson government has previously announced that there WILL be friction in the trade between the EU and the UK going forward. So the same completely uninhibited free trade arrangements that have been in place for decades will be altered and there will be some level of checks, regulations, tariffs etc. The UK apparently does NOT intend to maintain uniform compliance with the requirements for membership in the EU free trade zone.

That being said, the UK and the EU both have every interest in designing customs processes that are as efficient and low maintenance as possible. I am confident that both the UK and the EU governments agree with that, at least conceptually.

So, on the first full day of British independence from the EU, the games have begun.

 

The EU volleys back by insisting it will take Spain's side with regards to its territorial claim to Gibraltar.

Brexit trade talks: EU to back Spain over Gibraltar claims

The EU will back Spain over its territorial claims to Gibraltar in the next phase of Brexit negotiations by giving Madrid the power to exclude the British overseas territory from any trade deal struck with Brussels.

The Observer has learned that the Spanish government has insisted on reference to the Rock in the EU’s opening negotiating position, which will be published in draft form on Monday.

Boris Johnson will be presented with the choice of reaching agreement with the Spaniards about Gibraltar’s future or exposing its citizens to economic peril by pushing it outside any EU-UK trade deal.​

The game is afoot. It is on, I tell you. It is on.