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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here is a very good article on the Italian referendum and the Austrian Presidential election today that concisely hits the main points in a very efficient manner.

    A couple of things on these events.

    In Italy, if the "No" side wins, that will continue business as usual. This is what the anti-establishment vote (The media refers to them as populists and Hillary Clinton calls them deplorables) is supporting, which is kind of confusing. Everywhere else, the anti-establishment vote is supporting a very aggressive change agenda. Not in Italy.

    The "No" side is supported by four former Prime Ministers. They and the leaders of the anti-establishment campaign, including Beppe Grillo, the leader of the Five Star Party (The Italian Nigel Farage) believe the proposed changes to the Italian constitution go too far and would centralize power too much. So while these people certainly support change, they have the maturity and self control to measure these proposals.

    The most recent polls suggest that the "No" side will win, as it appears to have majority support in every region in Italy. This is really unfortunate, as Italy desperately needs constitutional reform. Italy has gone from one dysfunctional government to another over the last 100 years and I suspect before that as well. Their government structure is too easy for their minority parties to undermine, regardless of who is in charge and regardless of the issue that is being debated. If "No" wins, that will almost certainly continue.

    So the critical change in Italy would not come from the government losing this referendum. It will come if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigns, as he has several times promised to do if he (the "Yes" side) loses.

    The Italians are going to be dealing with a serious crisis of one sort or another regardless of the outcome of this vote. They have tremendously difficult financial and banking problems as a nation and they are struggling with the government enabled migration crisis over there to a degree that may be worse than any other country in Europe, due to their position as the gateway for these migrants coming over from Africa and the unwillingness of other European countries to help by resettling these migrants in their countries.

    Constitutional reform is needed to enable the Italian government to be able to work out a solution to these massive problems. If there is no constitutional reform, then there is not likely to be a solution to these problems either. These reforms are apparently not the right ones, but without reforms, the gridlock in Italy, which is worse than ours here, will continue.

    If "No" wins and Renzi resigns, the Italians will have yet another snap election and a new government, which could be headed by the anti-establishment leader Beppe Grillo, who has been leading in the polls. However, he will have the same institutional challenges to moving his agenda that the current government does.

    If nothing is done about these problems, there will be repercussions, very possibly severe. To say that the Italians are in a difficult dilemma is a huge understatement and the outcome of this referendum will do nothing to change that.

    In Austria, the presidential vote is largely symbolic, as the president has almost no powers there. However, if Hofer wins that will be the first time an anti-establishment party has won a national election in Europe. Up until now, they have won referendums, but never an actual national election. So this vote will not really change much on the ground either. But as in Italy, the response to it and the continuing momentum that this win would provide to other anti-establishment candidates in upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany in the first part of next year, very well might.
     
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  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    In Austria the voting is over but the votes have not been tallied yet. Nevertheless, based on what appears to be a single exit poll, the election has been called and the leftist candidate Alexander Van der Bellen has won. His populist opponent Norbert Hofer has conceded defeat on Facebook.

    Again, the Austrian President has no powers to speak of, but if Hofer had won, this would have been the first time that a populist or anti-establishment candidate had won a national race in Europe.

    Maybe it is just because I am from the USA, where the exit polls are wrong about half of the time, but the idea that anyone would concede a race like this based solely on a single exit poll seems very strange to me. Perhaps these exit polls in Austria are somehow much more accurate than ours are. Certainly Mr. Hofer seemed to think so.

    Anyway, this is a big relief to the establishment in Austria and the EU, not so much because the leftist candidate won, but because the populist candidate apparently didn't. This race was actually a do-over of a race last May that had the result thrown out because of ballot fraud regarding mail-in ballots. In that race, the establishment candidate won, beating Hofer by about 30,000 votes.

    Sorry for my skepticism, but especially after the victory of Donald Trump here in the US, where the media was celebrating his defeat as a foregone conclusion until around 10PM, and then went into a complete meltdown after finding out that all the polls had been wrong after all and that Trump actually won, I am going to want to see the actual vote counts before I put this one to bed in my mind.
     
  3. Raz

    Raz Member

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    Austria has just over 9 Mio. citizens, so unless it's a very close call you get the result pretty early and that's the case here. Bit surprising, since the Austrians are traditionally very nationalistic and right-orientated, so I'm glad they voted against the trend and chose not to follow xenophobia and pointless populism. Hope that's a signal for the way more important elections next year, especially in France and Germany.

    Now let's see what the outcome of the Italy vote will be.
     
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  4. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I like posts like these from you. Thanks for updating me on elections elsewhere across the world.
     
  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    You're welcome.
     
  6. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    EURO crashing hard. catering companies in brussels must be weighing just how much of their staff to layoff now. juncker must be passed out completely drunk as i type
     
  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The Italian referendum on constitutional reform was defeated yesterday by a 60-40 margin.

    While this has been a described as a victory for the anti-establishment movement in favor of change in Italy, its effect is very likely to be the exact opposite. I have been as enthusiastically supportive of Nigel Farage, Brexit, and the anti-establishment movement both here and the US as anyone here on this board. However, the outcome of this referendum really does not do very much to advance the agenda of this movement in Italy.

    Since 1948, the Italian government has been working under its current constitutional government rules. During that time, Italy has almost certainly been the most ineffective and unstable democratically elected government on Earth. Since that time, they have had 63 governments (over 72 years). Prior to the introduction of the Euro in 1999, Italy was notorious for its out of control inflation and the relentless debasement of its currency. At the time the Euro was introduced, the Lira was exchanged at a rate of 1,936.27 for 1 Euro. Also, the banks have nearly always had problems, but they are arguably as bad right now as they have ever been.

    The normal pattern of government in Italy since WWII has been for a major issue to arise, the Italian parliament tries to solve it, they fail, and then either the government is reshuffled, or a motion of no confidence is taken and snap elections are held, resulting in the same constitutional circumstances but new MPs.

    After 72 years of this, Matteo Renzi went all-in to push for constitutional reform, which Italy needs so badly that it can hardly be overstated. A year ago, the prospects of this passing looked reasonably promising. But it failed, apparently because the anti-establishment wave that is sweeping the US and the EU has left the people of Italy in the mood to protest and push back. However, by voting no, they did not actually vote for change - that is what Matteo Renzi was pushing for. What they voted for was for a continuation of the status quo - more of the same - as now the same failed constitutional structure that they have lurched along under for 72 years will continue without alteration.

    To be fair, I do not claim to be an expert in the Italian constitution. They do have a history in Italy of tyrants excessively centralizing power and bringing great ruin on their country in the process, so they are smart to be cautious. But this seems to be less about a careful consideration of the crafting of a properly nuanced system of checks and balances and more of a collective Bronx cheer or a middle finger salute to the elites that are running things.

    Now the most likely scenario is that a new member of Renzi's Democratic party will take over and all of the enormous problems that Italy faces will remain effectively unsolvable, just as before. If new elections are held, Beppe Grillo and his leftist populist party could win, but that really is not likely, nor would it do anything to resolve the constitutional impediments that keep Italy's government from functioning effectively.

    Sure, this vote will serve to encourage and empower other anti-establishment parties and candidates across Europe, and I am personally pleased about that. But unlike Brexit or the election of Donald Trump, the result does virtually nothing to constructively advance the agenda of this movement.

    Even though I am an active supporter of many of the anti-establishment movements that have been sweeping the world over the last eight years, I cannot find it within myself to celebrate this result. If someone can tell me a constructive and not-political reason that I should want to celebrate it, I would very much like to hear it.
     
  8. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    I wish you guys could quit your globalist obsession and focus on the United States.
     
  9. Dei

    Dei Member

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    I wish you would see what's happening to the entire world rather than being isolationist and just looking at your own backyard.
     
    #9 Dei, Dec 5, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2016
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  10. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    America first, right? It's pathetic that you are looking at pics of European leaders to see which ones are good looking. Get a brain. And a conscience.
     
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    I am truly surprised about how few people in politically oriented discussion forums such as this one are interested in discussing this topic.

    I know that our nation is pretty close to being obsessed with all things Donald Trump. However, as unlikely as it may seem to the provincially minded locals around here, what is happening in the Europe right now with regards to the EU, the Eurozone, Brexit and the anti-establishment or "populist" wave that is sweeping that region in open opposition to a large number of their national governments and also the entire EU project is almost certainly a larger and more historically important set of issues than the ascent of Donald Trump is here in the US.
     
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  12. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I've discussed this topic plenty of times, when anyone has shown any interest. I think Britain leaving the EU is a catastrophe for the UK, for the EU, for NATO, and for the United States.

    I couldn't disagree more with your take on Trump, however.
     
  13. AroundTheWorld

    Supporting Member

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    So I live in this region. It's kind of tiring to follow European politics. Although I am not a follower of any of the populist parties we are talking about here, I can understand why some people turn to these parties, when you see how governing parties in Europe have become detached from what people actually want and can bear. What I see is that what used to be a somewhat cozy societal consensus in somewhat homogenous European societies does not exist anymore in light of new challenges, and societies drift apart and become more divided. Uncontrolled immigration of people who show little willingness of integrating themselves and instead want to bring their medieval belief systems and force them onto the existing population is certainly a major driver of frustration and anger.
     
  14. Major

    Major Member

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    Alexis Tsipras and Syriza won in Greece several years ago.
     
  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    IMO, failure of the Eurozone self-regulating inside a region as large as Europe is mostly responsible for these fractures. Greeks who were once the darling little brother had to grow up quickly when newer poorer entries forced it to pay more and receive less aid. Germans have the unwelcome influence of dominating the Eurozone while flooding its neighbors with expensive bank loans in order to cover debtor nations' trade imbalances.

    Italy is just plain weird. They voted a facist in Berlusconi who promised to create a better Italy only to be set back a decade once they managed to extricate themselves from his toxic influence. I'm not sure what exactly it is Italy can export, and it's somewhat fitting their capital is a living mausoleum trapped in time while its politicians are tasked dealing with a rapidly modern and changing world. Which is sad because their college graduates are even more idle than their non-graduate brethren.

    I haven't paid too much attention to the populist angle as I think the EU's issues is more about the direction of their collective identity and the scope and degree to solidify it, ideally by tweaking the Euro's fundamental core rather than short term QE. I think liberalism should reach deeper in connecting and integrating immigrants if they want to continue with their opening door policies that immediately close off opportunities like employment or training once they get in.

    If you want a right wing racist EU nation, just look at Hungary. They might've spared themselves "the immigrant scourge", but the hostility and attention payed upon it probably served as a stark reminder to other nations of what can be at this point in time.
     
    #15 Invisible Fan, Dec 6, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2016
  16. Dei

    Dei Member

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    I do have a brain, that's why I'm picking these right wing groups that would actually return properly functioning nation state democracies to Europe. And I do have a conscience, that's why I want Europeans to be spared from being raped and murdered by the African and Middle Eastern migrants.

    And, yes, national interest first when it comes to government policy but it would be foolhardy not to look towards what's happening with the world. It's not a hard concept to grasp. We want people who share the same values as us to succeed.

    LOL no. Syriza is a left-wing part, anti-austerity party. And they were pretty r****ded at it too - reject Germany's terms for austerity when it's German money funding Greece then come back to them rather than fix it yourself.

    If you're looking for a real nationalist party in Greece, look at Golden Dawn.
     
  17. Dei

    Dei Member

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    Not really. Anything related to the right wing to those people gives them the Nazi jitters. But, yes, pretty happy with the Italy result.

    Don't blame it on right-wing. Hungary isn't as developed as the rest of Western Europe. Simple as that. If their liberals ran it, it would be in deeper ****.
     
  18. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    That's why people don't like your thought.
     
  19. Raz

    Raz Member

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    So you have no idea what FPÖ stands for, right?

    Let me share a quote from famous writer Thomas Bernhard:
    "In Austria you have to be either Catholic or National Socialist. Anything else is not accepted. Anything else will be destroyed. In fact 100% Catholic. And 100% National Socialistic." (ordinary translation by myself)
     
  20. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    His thinking is pretty simple minded. It basically comes down to 3 steps.

    1. Get rid of the EU
    2. Close off all European borders to dark,evil people (Only from the Middle-East and Africa.)
    3. If that doesn't work then just bomb the entirety of Africa and the Middle-East to hell.

    See, he's a really reasonable person.
     

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