47.2% That is the combined free throw percentage of Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Joey Dorsey, and Clint Capella. The Rockets will be playing the vast majority of their minutes, if not all their minutes, with at least one of those guys on the floor. It should be expected that Rick Carlisle is going to resort to Hack-a-X frequently throughout the series. How worried are you about this? Will James Harden even get a chance to take control of the series if these guys are taking 30-40 free throws a game?
Not worried about Dwight or Smith. They only have to shoot 50%+ to make it work out for the Rockets. The thing I'm more concerned is the ability to stop Harden's momentum when he gets rolling as well as how crapoy the games will be if they're shooting free throws all game.
It appears as if the staff and Morey have made their decision regarding it. Capela got pulled immediately, Dorsey stuck around for a few possessions and they trust Smoove/Dwight to handle their businesses. As long as everyone is on the same page, im not concerned. Average at least 1pt per possession, prevent easy transition buckets and play lockdown defense on the other end. Bad TV, but shouldn't hurt the team
A little worried but not on the top of my concerns. I feel that if we play defense the way we are capable of, it will negate most of the bad aspects of our game.
The only time we lost the game due to that strategy is when McHale panics and takes out the player being hacked. Taking out Smith is fine, but NEVER take out Howard. We lost two games last season because he took Howard out and they exploited our lack of defense in the middle, the first Laker game at home and game 1 of the playoffs last season.
Not that worried. Rockets haven't lost many games when the opponent resorts to hacking Dwight. Dwight gets better the more time he goes to line anyway; it allows him to establish a rhythm.
What if we are purposely missing them so teams prepare for hack our big men, then we come out shooting 80%
We need James Harden to make those full court 3 point heaves whenever Smith/Dorsey/Capela/Howard get fouled. If Harden makes a couple of those, I bet they stop Hack-a-whoever. On the other hand, if we have full playoff games ruined by the hacking strategy, then the NBA will be forced to change the rules next year. Nobody wants to watch that.
I say it because we were up when they started it and the tempo of the game was in our favor until then. It slowed way down and gave them a chance to take advantage for the lead and eventually the win. It was effective enough for Smith to miss 100 ft's that game in which we wouldve won if he wouldve made half of them and would've forced them to stop the hacking strategy. Theres no definitive way to say we wouldve lost or won that game with them employing that strategy, its all hypotheticals, but IMO it did NOT help and Im sure there are a lot of people here who agree.
A Howard-Jones-Smith rotation should be able to get over the infamous 50% mark that determines whether the hacking is successful. That rotation is certainly our "Plan A". If all of them get hit with fouls and we have to reach for Capela or Dorsey then it gets dicey.
I think people are starting to over play this. If we are getting hacked we are in the penalty already which is a huge advantage. Worst case is you have to take Smith or Dorsey off the floor which is no big deal. Any excessive use is going get every member of the mavs in foul trouble.
Just a couple points here. For this year at least, it's actually 50.5%. They are a combined 299/592 without Capela. Secondly to consider the "real" free throw shooting percentage of these guys in the playoffs is anybody's guess. But for the sake of argument let's assume Dwight gets 32 minutes, Smith gets 32 minutes, and Jones gets 32 minutes. That's 96 minutes between them....covering both the 4/5 spots. If you assume that there is no discretion in how they are fouled...that they are all fouled and sent to the free throw line at the same rate, and their post season free throw shooting percentage remains at the same level as their regular season free throw shooting percentage, then overall they will yield a free throw shooting percentage of a little over 55%. But NBA teams are smart. They're not likely to keep fouling Terrence if he remains around 60%. So then their targets become Dwight and Smoove. That's roughly 52.5%. And that's probably good enough...................IF................if Dwight, Smith, and Jones can handle all the minutes at the 4/5 spots WITHOUT Dorsey. But here's where the stress factors come in: 1. 3 guys playing all the big minutes means they gotta stay out of foul trouble. That means more tentative defensive play to stay on the court. 2. Those 3 guys have to control the glass and win the rebounding war against mostly bigger, heavier, longer big opponents in order for us to ultimately keep advancing. And Terrence is already undersized at the 4 to begin with. (Smith and Dwight are really undersized too against the WC bigs but they're so good defensively that being a little undersized doesn't hurt them as much as it hurts Jones.) So in my opinion the question about free throws is will Dwight, Smoove, or Terrence cave mentally in the post season and post a significantly worse free-throw shooting percentage? If they don't cave, then I don't think there is a problem with their free-throw shooting per se. But that's all sans Dorsey/Capela. You put Dorsey/Capela in the equation and we're in trouble. I really think it's this simple. IF...we see Dorsey (or Capela) playing significant minutes for this team when the game is undecided while we are in the bonus....THEN....we are in deep doo-doo. Because...the only reason why Dorsey(or Capela) should see the court in the playoffs for anything besides a spot minute or two here and there while we aren't in the bonus is if: 1. One of the 3 primary bigs is in foul trouble. or 2. One of the 3 primary bigs is injured. or 3. One of the 3 primary bigs is getting blasted defensively and McHale has no choice but to get Dorsey out there to help defensively. IOW, if Dorsey (or Capela) sees game action when the game is undecided and we are in the bonus it is because we are DESPERATE and probably sinking already.
Dwight, josh smith, Dorsey, Capella better start shooting 1000 free throws right at this moment.... This is how they will improve and shoot better.
