Lol. 99% of the staff around Trump sound more presidential. My 5 year old niece sounds more presidential than the actual president. That is like the lowest of low bars.
Yup. I and many other posters have been trying to explain to the "Trump's economy is the best economy" crowd that Trump's economy is being fueled by unsustainable consumer debt.
My point was more so directed that the wealthy get competence and stimulus while we get a ****ing moron and scraps.
I'm sure I'm not the only one here that works in corporate America. With my company I know there is an evaluation period coming where they'll make a second move on layoffs, and salary reductions. Our first cuts were in early May. Second "evaluation" is set for August. The way that we as a country have completely failed to control the virus and establish a New Normal way of going about our lives in a mostly productive way while establishing safety measures makes me believe that the jobless claims are going to shoot through the roof in a month or two because the first wave of unemployment was obviously hourly workers in retail, restaurants, etc. Corporate America however mostly had the cashflow in most companies to hold tight for a few months. However if my company is any indication, a major "trim the fat" move will happen again these next few months if the economy doesn't have a MAJOR bounce-back which I just don't see happening. I wish I had more reasons to feel more optimism, but this sucks. How were we so unprepared and so incredibly incompetent dealing with a F-ing virus?
This, despite an PPP and "opening up", its is increasingly obvious that another round of aid to workers and the economy is needed...
Corp america is hanging on. It's not just the cash flow but basic business. Which corp would want to maintain the same payroll when demand for their product or service are drying up? Maybe a few, but they got responsibility to stock holders. Fall sounds about right for re-evaluation.
US GDP fell at 5.0% rate in Q1; worse is likely on the way https://apnews.com/b52fed52404951a2...AP&utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
Yep. I think corporate America is poised to dump millions of workers on the federal government to take care of very soon, and I have zero faith in what we have to support that level of citizens that are about to be getting let go. Some corporations have a product and service that can hold demand but so many industries are going to have more lagging indicators where someone who just got laid off in April has some residual spending on non essential goods, but after being unemployed for 3 months, will have less cash available to spend, and that has a trickle up affect. My company is in human capital, and we are just completely dead with the exception of a few Enterprise accounts like your Microsofts who are still sort of acting like business as usual. Basically all other accounts I work with are stopped dead in their tracks. I don't want to freak out, but I feel like people who should know better should be freaking out a little bit more about whats coming.
Maybe that's what the fed is trying to hold up with the printing press. They have said they are willing to even buy individual securities! But will that work or will it just simply get funneled to the top... we all better hope it works if this crisis deepen (and it sure looks like we are about to get into a 2nd phase, one where we know more but yet there is much less political capital to do what's necessary, or worse, to do what we shouldn't be doing).
The Criminal in Chief, desperate for a bump in the pools, might be ready to follow Pelosi's lead and send more money to the unwashed masses. I suspect that McConnell will want to make sure the top 1% get more than their fair share because reasons he can. Months after direct coronavirus stimulus checks were sent and spent, Donald Trump is getting around to thinking another set of checks would be a good thing for his reelection prospects (because you know he's not thinking about the well-being of individual Americans). First he's going to have to convince Republicans in Congress and members of his own administration. Three people "aware of internal administration deliberations" tell The Washington Post that Trump thinks it will boost the economy and thus his reelection prospects. For once, Trump agrees with the smart people. More than 140 of the nation's top economists—and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell—have argued for massive spending, including directly to the people, of as much as $16 trillion, the amount that the Congressional Budget Office projects the economy to lose over the next decade. The House re-upped the $1,200 payments people received from the CARES Act that passed in March in their follow-up bill, the HEROES Act, which the House passed more than a month ago. While another one-time $1,200 payment isn't nearly enough to save families, much less the economy, it would be something. But it’s too much for Senate Republicans and some of Trump's advisers.
Bleak spending outlook, coupled with bleak jobs numbers... US personal income dropped 4.2%, spending increased 8.2%, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) core deflator increased 1%, well below the Fed's 2% target.
"The Federal Reserve established the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) on March 23, 2020, to support credit to employers by providing liquidity to the market for outstanding corporate bonds. The SMCCF supports market liquidity by purchasing in the secondary market corporate bonds issued by investment grade U.S. companies or certain U.S. companies that were investment grade as of March 22, 2020, as well as U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds. The SMCCF's purchases of corporate bonds will create a portfolio that tracks a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds. The Treasury, using funds appropriated to the ESF through the CARES Act, will make an equity investment in an SPV established by the Federal Reserve for the SMCCF and the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility. The SMCCF is established by the Federal Reserve under the authority of Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary."
Remember when "labor participation rate" was important? We expect an increase of 3.1 million in total employment, led by workers who have been called back to their jobs, and a decrease to 12.2% in the unemployment rate when the jobs data for June is released on Thursday. But those figures should be looked at with a skeptical eye. Pandemic economics is now organized around near real-time economic data that tends to de-emphasize lagging economic reports that often appear out of date by the time they are published. By the time the June jobs report comes out, we will have already started estimating the damage to the labor market wrought by pullbacks and shutdowns of business because of an intensification of the pandemic that will appear in the July estimate. What we will be watching? Data collection: In the May survey, the collection rate for the establishment survey was 69%, lower than the normal rate, while the collection rate for the household survey was 67%, about 15% lower than the pre-pandemic collection rate. This means that we can expect significant revisions in either direction across the entire data sets that underscore the establishment and household surveys. If one looks at the variance in the consensus forecast, one will note a high of 9 million in the change in total employment and low of 500,000 — both in contrast with the Bloomberg consensus of 3 million. The standard deviation of the consensus forecast is 1,577%, which should tell one all one needs to know about the general level of uncertainty about the labor market five months into the pandemic. Misclassified workers: The period of March through April was characterized by difficulties at the Bureau of Labor Statistics classifying employed people absent from work because of pandemic-related business closures as unemployed or as a temporary layoff. One suspects that this is a sophisticated coding error that will take some time work through. For this reason, one may want to take the unemployment rate estimate with a grain of salt. The standard deviation inside the Bloomberg consensus forecast is .88%, which is very large compared to past forecasts, with the high estimate of 15.5%, the low forecast 10.1% and the median estimate at 12.4%. Alternative data: Many of us are now looking at private data sources such as Homebase and LinkUp. If one uses that data in addition to other alternative data combined with traditional economic or financial data to create quantitative forecasts, one might forecast a slightly more optimistic outcome for the June employment report. Traditional data: That being said, we will continue to focus on traditional data in addition to the novel data outlined above. This includes the U-6 underemployment estimate, aggregate hours worked, employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate. Finally, given the large shock to the domestic labor market, we will look at the median duration of unemployment and average weeks of unemployment. source: https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-j...ady-be-out-of-date-by-the-time-its-published/
The Trump administration just lent $700 million to a trucking company sued for ripping off taxpayers By Chris Isidore, CNN Business https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/business/yrc-federal-loan/index.html Updated 11:22 AM ET, Wed July 1, 2020
Ray Dalio Says Capital Markets Are No Longer ‘Free Markets’ Recent central bank actions mean capital markets are no longer "free," according to Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates. "Today the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks and the coordination with the central government," Dalio said in a conversation with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker during the Bloomberg Global Asset Owners Forum.
