Who do you think will win the early states? My picks (1st and 2nd): Iowa (Feb 3): Biden, Bernie New Hampshire (Feb 9): Bernie, Pete Nevada (Feb 22): Bernie, Biden South Carolina (Feb 29): Biden (big), Bernie Biden then generally dominates Super Tuesday and that's the unofficial end of it, IMO (though Bernie can win several more states like in 2016 and Hillary in 2008). What each candidate needs: Biden: Not finish 4th anywhere (3rd might also be a problem if it's both Iowa & NH) Bernie: Needs to win Iowa to have a shot and is possible Warren: Needs to finish in the top 2 in one of the first two states (and probably 2 of 4) Pete: Needs to win both Iowa and NH Amy: Needs to finish top 3 in Iowa and still needs a miracle. Helps if Biden is 4th. Bloomberg: Needs Bernie/Warren to do well in the first 4 states and essentially eliminate Biden/Pete. Yang: Hopeless (sorry) Steyer: Hopeless Gabbard: Needs FOX to come calling so she has a reason to extract herself from this race
Can't argue with any of that. The opportunity window for something volatile to happen to shake up this race is getting small.
I will go a little different just to be contrarian, though I don't disagree with your picks. Iowa - Pete, Bernie NH - Warren, Bernie Nevada - Bernie, Biden South Carolina - Biden, Warren
I think it will be long decided by the time it get to Indiana, so I will just sit and watch. None of the top Democrats are super attractive, but I will take anyone over Trump.
I shouldn't say Bernie needs to win Iowa. He needs Biden to NOT win Iowa, and he needs to finish 2nd at least.
Iowa (Feb 3): Sanders > Biden > Buttigieg > Warren New Hampshire (Feb 9): Sanders > Biden > Warren > Buttigieg Nevada (Feb 22): Biden > Sanders > Warren > Yang South Carolina (Feb 29): Biden > Sanders > Steyer > Warren Sanders starts strong but has another rough Super Tuesday. Buttigieg craters after IA/NH. Warren can't overcome her slow start. Brokered convention. DNC continues to do dumb things that piss off everyone. We all die in a hellfire tsunami.
Only somewhat related, but look at this spending map. This race is nuttybutts. Bloomberg could have some kind of insane Super Tuesday breakout.
I don't think it will work, but I do appreciate Bloomberg's strategic plan. He wasn't going to win those early states while joining this late. So he identified where he has a unique advantage (big states where money rules and states where no one else is paying attention yet) and is going all-in there. Basically, he's playing Moneyball/Moreyball/Ravensball in politics. We'll see what impact it has. I still think he's basically a backup plan if Biden falters. I also love that his ads are basically tearing down Trump / propping himself up. But at no point has he gone after any other Dems, so he's not doing any damage to whoever the eventually nominee is.
They need the other one to drop out and support them (though the recent spat will hurt them even then).
Iowa: Biden > Buttigieg > Warren > Sanders NH: Biden > Sanders > Warren > Buttigieg Nevada: Biden > Sanders > Warren > Buttigieg SC: Biden > Warren > Sanders > Buttigieg
I think it will end up being bad for Biden as their lanes of support have significant overlap. I think it will end up preventing him from sealing the nomination before the convention. It's also bad news for fringe candidates like Yang and Klobuchar because it increases the cost of advertising and they are playing with less cash than others and need to stretch those dollars. The majority of attacks we have seen have come in/during/from debates, of which Bloomberg has participated in zero. I've not seen a single TV ad from a candidate that attacks another candidate, either. At least not one from a campaign itself (in-kind stuff is a different animal).
Bloomberg ain't messing around! But I really hope he doesn't win with this strategy. I'd like to live in a fairytale land where you can't just buy your party's nomination.
I don't feel like I'm qualified to give an opinion on who will win what primary but I'm interested to see how it shakes out. It's all finally coming to a head.
I agree on both. Although, everything I read when Bloomberg joined was that he did it only because Biden was faltering. If Biden does well in the early states, I do wonder if he drops out? It seems like a hard thing to do when you've spent $200MM and you haven't gotten to any of your states yet, but I think his big thing is avoiding Bernie/Warren, so I wonder if he really stays in if it would just help those two.
Biden wins and becomes president Republicans narrowly hold Senate. 2 years of nothing follow. Then in 2022 Dems control everything and only get an updated version of obamacare through. Nikki Haley becomes president in 2024
I'm to the point I don't want either party controlling "everything" .... that's dangerous. A big part of why I don't want a second Trump term is SCOTUS nominees - RBG cant hold on forever and I don't want to see her replaced with a GOP appointee tilting the court and Breyer isn't a spring chicken either at 81. A second Trump term could give us a 7-2 court .... that's not good no matter which way it leans. I'm quite content with a 5-4 court .... literally everything that's been achieved in terms of human rights and social justice in the past 40 years has been with a 5-4 court of conservative leanings and the number of cases I disagree with the high court are few - Citizens United (sure wish they would revisit this one) being one and the ACA individual mandate being another - They get it right the vast majority of the time.