The Dwight Effect: A New Ensemble of Interior Defense Analytics for the NBA

This is a long read, but for DH haters this show how valuable he can be to his team. As long as he's healthy and happy with teammates which I think this young team would mesh well with his personality, the Rocket will become instance contenders.

http://www.sloansportsconference.co...of Interior Defense Analytics for the NBA.pdf

"We also contend that dominant interior defenders often deter shots from even happening. Many NBA players will be reluctant to “challenge” a dominant interior player or be more likely to “settle” for a jump shot further from the basket. We evaluated this effect by examining the percentage of field goal attempts that occur near the basket when a qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of the rim. We found that the most deterrent interior defender in this sense was Dwight Howard. Overall, when a qualifying defender is within 5 feet of the basket, the NBA shoots 57.2% of its attempts close to the basket; however, when Dwight Howard was the interior defender this number dropped to 48.2% (Appendix 1A). This is what we call the “Dwight Effect” – the most effective way to defend close range shots is to prevent them from even happening. Although Howard does not lead the league in blocks, he does lead the league in “invisible blocks,” which may prove to be markedly more significant. When Howard is protecting the basket, opponents shoot many fewer close range shots than average, and settle for many more mid-range shots, which are the least productive shots in the NBA. Furthermore, out of centers who have faced at least 100 total shots in the basket proximity study, Serge Ibaka ranked last; when he is within 5 feet of the basket, opponents shot 74% of their shots in the close range area. This means that Ibaka is likely to be around any shot near the basket and suggests that while Ibaka leads the NBA in blocks per game, part of the reason is that he has many more “potential blocks” than almost any other defender. Full results for Case Study 1 are presented in Appendix 1. We also discuss the challenges and limitations associated with this study in the Discussion section."

 

Yeah HMMMHMM,

David Lee nice offensive player and rebounds, but show you how bad defense is.