The Best Trade that didn't happen & The Yao Effect

True about Rajon, but this is the definition of magical thinking. Sometimes people win the powerball lottery too, it does mean it is a good investment strategy. Dakota had a similar thread about the Spurs-Rockets comparison last week.

Yao is a fine player. But as we have seen, the Rockets have aspect of their team that in fact flourish without him (see: 22 game win streak). Its not like they then won 40 games in a row because he was back. There is a larger context - the whole being different than the sum of the parts.

My argument is that Yao has strengths and weaknesses, and that Yao teams have not been substantial enough to be considered legit contenders. I do not see this team being so uniquely matched to his skills (which lets assume return at full capacity) that we will all the sudden make a Rondo-like leap into the stratosphere.

You can argue back "no one saw Rondo coming." I would also argue that alot of folks that we thought would be marginal players are, in fact, still marginal players.

I understand it is part of being a fan. And as i type this, i sort of want to delete it, because i think being a fan is a more legitimate and authentic way of watching a team. I honor your experience with it. But i dont think it holds up logically.

 

If he's actually referring to a trade that didn't happen which benefited the rockets, then i would have to say the horry for elliot trade that got rescinded.

And yes, the Barkley trade needed to happen, if we had any shot at beating Seattle.

 

When we brought Barkley to the Rockets it signaled the end of Hakeem.
Hakeem played soft the whole season deferring to Barkley rather than shine like the star he was. This was the beginning of the end for Hakeem

 

I really wish it were that simple..

but you do bring up a valid point

chuck hayes and david anderson just can't compete with yao and his scoring ability..

but then u have to take all the lost opportunities caused by our shooters passing to yao..

in the end, however, we will be a much better team with yao mainly because of his defence. we lacked that guy in the post that could clog up the lane and make it hard for our opponents to score in the paint. With the great wall out ppg might not change very much, but our opponents ppg will definitely decrease.

 

We lost to seattle in 7 games in 1993 and if you look back at that game an official incorrectly called out of bounds on Hakeem while we were up by 3 near the end of the 4th that would have made a huge difference determining who won. Since Seattle got the ball back and scored it became a much closer game than it was suppose to be.
Now in 1996, we got swept. Looks like, oh yeah your right Seattle has our number. No, two years of being knocked out of the 1st round watching us hold up trophies in those years created the bad matchup. They were pissed at themselves so much they were going to beat anyone in the playoffs that year, except the Bulls who were on their own quest. In fact, Karl's job was on the line that year if they didn't at least get to the finals.
Point is the Barkley trade wasn't needed. How about just signing Kevin Willis, thats what even Cassell said in 1997. Instead we go out and get Price/Maloney to replace him, Eddie Johnson replacing Horry and Barkley/Willis replacing Chucky Brown/Mark Bryant. If we just sign Willis:

Cassell/Maloney/Recansner
Drexler/Elie
Horry/Mack
Willis/Brown/Bryant
Hakeem/Jones
-Elie can play 2/3
-Horry 3/4 (at this time, later a 4/5)
-Willis plays 4/5
-Cassell became one of the best points in the league and we knew it was gonna happen!

Barkley was not the reason we beat Seattle. If he was that determining of a factor, how come it took 7 games still? We took them to 7 in 1993 too and deserved to win it. Seattle was just the 2nd best team in the west at that time but we didn't dodge any bullets because they were taken out in the 1st round in 94,95. We would have beaten them had they advanced, Olajuwon wouldn't have allowed us to lose those years (lol, just taking notes from the Jordan faithful) Face it JBIIrockets, we were the best team! Now that you know that you can be a real Rockets fan

 

There are two (opposite) arguments I don't agree with:

1) Adding Yao "instantly" improves defense... Don't you all forget all the painful memory how Jazz picked Rockets apart using PnR?

2) Rockets win 22 straright without Yao. While Yao was in the first 12 games during that stretch. You can really argue that he helped to build the momentum during that stretch.

 

Wait, so you are saying that one weakness of a defense with Yao means it is not improved overall?

DOES NOT COMPUTE !!!!!

He was part of the streak, I believe the first 12 were WITH Yao.

Come on people....get some starbucks wake up, and get with the program.

DD

 

shsu33,

Kenny Smith admitted on TNT a few years ago that his Rockets couldn't beat Seattle.

 

Terrible analysis. Learn to statistify.

Your claim that the Rockets would score 9 more ppg with Yao in the lineup is rather dubious, considering that the Rockets scoring average last year was higher than it has EVER been with Yao Ming. They averaged 102.4 ppg last year. They have never even broken 100 ppg with Yao in the lineup. Yet somehow you think that with big slow Tofu gingerly trotting around and hoping some random bone doesn't snap in half, they would have averaged 111.4 ppg, best in the NBA and higher than the Suns.

Clutchfans statistics class is now in session and you've just been flunked by the master.

 

Oh my god, can you imagine if Jordan was a rocket instead of a bull? And played with dream? We'd win the two that Dream did, plus Jordan's six plus that finals against the Celtics in Dream's rookie year. Man oh man!

 

Well, I did not say there will be no improvement, just that it may not be as significant as you suggested. You see, the problem is that there is no solution to that ONE weakness.

 

The winner right here....

 

Sure there is, strong weakside rotation, trapping the ball, lots of different ways to be effective against it......

Shaq has 5 rings and he flipping SUCKS at PnR defense....

I am sorry, I forgot your point ...

DD

 

LOL. I can't believe his thread has 3 stars. Now Miami Heat should score 120 per game based on points per game by their super stars.

 

Points Per Game
'08-'09: 98.4
'09-'10: 102.4

Points Allowed Per Game
'08-'09: 94.4
'09-'10: 102.7

Point Differential:
'08-'09: +4
'09-'10: -0.3


So while we actually scored more without Yao (faster pace), we also gave up more points.

While this still isn't a good barometer, a 4 point swing w/Yao is more likely. If you apply this to your method, you get an extra 6 or 7 wins which is much more realistic than 17 or 22.

So taking the high number and assuming a healthy Yao would have given us an extra 7 wins, that would have put us at 49-33 which might have gotten us into the playoffs as the 8th seed.

There are obvious other factors and I think we would've gotten a few more wins than that. Probably a win total in the low 50's and somewhere around the #5 seed.

 

Way to contribute to ClutchFans, noob!

I think this one takes the title of Best Trade That Never Was in the Entire History of Professional Sports.

 

Uhh Scola is a horrible defender.

 

You're not factoring in that more shot attempts for Yao = slower pacing and fewer shot attempts for other players.

 

Well that settles it then. I guess kenny should give one of his rings to Payton now. I'm sure kenny would have tried his hardest and those other teamates of his would have tried hard too. Maybe if the team you think was better than us didn't choke in the 1st round those other rox would have proved something to kenny