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The Best Trade that didn't happen & The Yao Effect

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ncagg42, Jul 16, 2010.

  1. ncagg42

    ncagg42 Member

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    Being a Rockets fan my whole life, one of the most upsetting trades in our franchises history was when we forked over all our young talent for an aging Charles Barkley. I liked Barkley, but I liked what we gave up for him more. Even though Bosh was young, I think he is vastly overrated (this is a whole different topic however) and I believe with what we have we are much better equipped to win a title. Here is an interesting summary I came up with a pretty simple formula:


    Looking back at least year, I decided to see, from a statistical approach, how we would have fared with a healthy Yao in the lineup. Yao averaged close to 20 points a game in 08-09 while Hayes/Anderson averaged a combined 9 points a game. Therefore there is a plus 9 average increase on points scored for us, and that isn't even factoring in the defensive, rebounding, double team, etc. impact for us last season.


    We would have won 22 more games
    (we lost 19 games by less than 9 points, and 6 games by 9 points (i assumed we won half of those in overtime)

    That would put us as a number one seed in the west. You might say maybe Yao wouldn't have given us a 9 point swing? ok well we would only need to win 17 more games.


    I am not saying this formula is 100% accurate, but I am saying it for all of you out there who are kind of down right now with the team we have. This is the most excited I have been in a while. Plus this is the first season Yao has ever entered that he rested before the season, usually he is training in China for the olympics and never gets a break.


    Just thought I would share
     
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  2. ncagg42

    ncagg42 Member

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    And sorry typo, Hayes and Anderson averaged 11, thus a 9 point swing. Didn't affect any of the calculations though.
     
  3. RedDragon01

    RedDragon01 Member

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    But...but you're not factoring in that the posessions that Yao did not have were given elsewhere to players that you're not mentioning here. You can't just say that we would gain X number of points because Yao's points minus Chucks and David's equals X. We don't magically get more possessions unless you factor in how we got them.

    Your estimate of our increased win total is far too high, based only on the stats you're using with your formula.
     
  4. RedDragon01

    RedDragon01 Member

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    That doesn't mean that you shouldn't be excited to have Yao back. Sorry. I didn't mean for my earlier post to sound so harsh. :)
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    Good thread, now factor in how important he is on defense and stopping the layup line at the rim.

    Just by standing straight up at 7'6" tall he would have made the Rockets a lot better defensively, probably at least 3 or 4 points better, if not more.

    DD
     
  6. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Interesting and simple analysis. I tend to believe that we would have been significantly better. I tend to believe we would have won the division.

    However, do you really think we would have gotten past the Lakers with Yao and the rest of the crew? I don't.

    We don't have a Kobe. Artest neutralizes Scola when we play the Lakers. And that leaves Yao dealing with both Gasol and Bynum. Not to mention, with Battier/Ariza stuck on Kobe, Odom is left with Kevin Martin and no name defenders. We just do not have enough horses man. We need another horse. We need two more upgrades.
     
  7. verti89

    verti89 Member

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    in 2008-2009 we gave up 94.2 ppg and we scored 97.5. in 2009-2010 these numbers were both very close to 102. so essentially we gave up more points but we also scored more points.

    like has already been said your stats dont really account for the fact that AB and Scolas stats went WAY up due to the fact that we had no go to guy in the middle.
     
  8. IamKhan

    IamKhan Rookie

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    Scola will defend Odom , Martin will defend Artest, and we will have to live with the results.

     
  9. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The Barkley trade was a good deal and almost helped the Rockets back to the NBA Finals. The team already knew that it was not going to be able to afford to keep both Horry and Cassell, who each wanted a fat new contract from Houston.

    Also, if you're going to talk about the "Best Trade that Didn't Happen", from the standpoint of a trade that could have been made but wasn't, it's hands-down Ralph Sampson to Portland for Clyde Drexler, Fat Lever and the #2 pick (Michael Jordan).

    Also, any attempt at extrapolating what last year's team would have done with Yao is a fairly fruitless endeavor. Totally different style and pace was played last year without him to make up for his absence.
     
  10. Artie_Fufkin

    Artie_Fufkin Member

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    ...and with Yao, we would have played a completely different style. There's really no formula to figure out how many more games we would have won with Yao.
     
  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    Of course not, but there is no denying the team would have been a WHOLE lot better.

    DD
     
  12. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    My rose colored glasses see that last year's Yaolessness gave incredible upside to this year's Yaofulness.
     
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  13. DwangBoy

    DwangBoy Member

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    I honestly don't think Bosh is THAT much of an improvement over Scola, only because Scola plays GREAT defense. Yeah, Bosh can go out and get 40.. but he's not as strong as Scola and certainly lacks the defensive skills of Scola.

    Also, Scola is a better leader and team player. Bosh woulda looked better on paper, but our team now is capable of WCF.
     
  14. valorita

    valorita Member

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    LOL. If basketball statistical analysis was only this simple...

    I don't even know where to begin, but I'll try to explain some of the faults in this sort of logic.

    Yao having a +9 scoring over whatever our C combo was last year does not directly equate with the win differential you've described in your post. There are many many variables that you have to consider and compensate for. For example, Yao scoring more points also equates to him getting more shots and touches throughout the game. Simply put, this means that the other 4 guys on the court will get less shots and thus less points because even with Yao, the effective% is not going to increase proportionally to the decrease in shot attempts. Your estimates also do not account for the minute production comparison or the added effect of whoever Yao's backup would've been last year.

    In short, there is no way that we can say we would've won "X" more number of games last year just because Yao's averages were higher. It is true that we definitely would've won more games but your calculations are not taking into account the numerous variables associated with basketball. That is why you have to play the game and not 'guestimate' on paper.
     
  15. Danbury

    Danbury Member

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    Sorry, but no way are the Rockets a 64 win team with Yao. AB and company would've had to give some of their shots to Yao, and who's to say he would've made them or not. Who knows where we would've been in rebounding, would AB have been able to drive with Yao clogging the middle. There are way to many variables to make this kind of assumption.

    I agree the team would've been and will be much better with Yao, but not 22 games better. Probably more along the lines of 8. If Yao is healthy and IF he can play to his old form, the Rockets will be a 50 win team this year.

    I completely disagree with your premise that they are better not having picked up Bosh. If the Rockets are a 50 win team with Yao, they would've been a 55 win team with Yao and Bosh, and potentially still a 50 win team with only Bosh (in the case of another Yao injury).
     
  16. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    Statistics are nice, but they can be used to form any side of an argument.

    They are a great help, but they are not the end all be all.

    That is why Morey has basketball people around him to help put the 'eyeball' test to his statistics.

    DD
     
  17. waytookrzy079

    waytookrzy079 Member

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    I like where you were headed with this thread...

    But i don't think your stats match up well with the situation.

    If you have Yao in the lineup, the pace would have been slower, which means less shots, attempted and lower averages for Brooks, Martin, Ariza, and Scola.

    Offensively, I think we would have scored maybe just as much as we did last year...maybe a little less.

    Defensively is where YAO becomes the biggest factor.

    Rockets in 08-09 were #4 in defensive rating (Yao + Deke in the middle)
    Rockets in 09-10 were #17 in defensive rating (Hayes + Andersen)

    Yao makes a bigger difference on the defensive end than many think or realize.
     
  18. TmacsRockets

    TmacsRockets Rookie

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    Let's trade for Danny Granger.
     
  19. mofuggin_OG

    mofuggin_OG Member

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    wow, this is some of the dumbest specualtion i've ever read. seriously man :( :(
     
  20. JBIIRockets

    JBIIRockets Contributing Member

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    ncagg42, why did you hate the Barkley trade?

    The Rockets could not beat Seattle until we traded for Barkley.

    Even the championship teams could not beat Seattle.
     
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