The best strategy: If you have this, you have 70% chance to get LeBron in July 2018

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ballscientist1, Jan 13, 2018.

  1. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    Competitors: Cavs, Lakers, 76ers (dark horse)

    Cavs:
    Rumors say they are going to deal TT/Nets pick/fillers to Clippers for DeAndre Jordan.
    2018 team salaries: 87 millions
    LeBron+ Thomas + Jordan's new contracts 2018: projected 100 million salaries
    Wade and others 2018: projected 13 million
    With repeater taxes: The salaries exceed $400 million?
    Repeater taxes hell leaves them with impossible decision!

    Lakers:
    If the Lakers trade Clarkson and don't take money back in a trade and then stretch Deng on July 1, leaving a cap hit of about $7.3 million, they would have around $70 million in cap space, assuming a $101 million salary cap. And that would assume the Lakers don't add any salary in the draft.
    2018 salaries: LeBron 35.7 million, ,P George $30.6 million
    Starters: LeBron, Ingram, Ball, George, Kuzma
    When they renounce the rights of Randle, they lose the rights to match the offer sheet.
    This team won't be able to defeat Rockets or Spurs in the playoffs.

    76ers:
    2018 team salaries: 67 millions (dump a rookie contract 2 million)
    Add LeBron: $35.7 million
    This team won't be able to defeat Celtics in the playoffs.

    Excluded LeBron, Rockets are the only team that will be better than Cavs next season.
    2018 team salaries: 80 millions
    After dumping Anderson team salaries: 60 million
    LeBron + Paul = 71.4 million
    When Rockets renounce the rights of Capela, Rockets lose the rights to match the offer sheet.
    3 other Free agents: LMM. Ariza and Capela

    If Rockets have around 30 million salary cap space, Rockets have 70% chance to get LeBron.
    Why? you know it.
    Dan Gilbert will trade LeBron to Rockets. (like Paul)
    If Rockets don't have at least 25 million cap space, Dan Gilbert will NOT trade LeBron to Rockets.
     
  2. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    13,449
    Likes Received:
    15,783
    71.3 (repeating of course)
     
  3. Deuce

    Deuce Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    15,860
    Likes Received:
    4,875
    Best chance, recruit LeRoy Jenkins......profit.
     
    Clutch, Nook and Pen15clubber like this.
  4. Blackjack84

    Blackjack84 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2017
    Messages:
    41
    Likes Received:
    35
    If LeBron came here he wouldn't take the max and neither will cp3 they both will take cuts to be able to keep the present roster here and lose Anderson
     
  5. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    At this moment the chances are:
    Cavs: 40%
    Rockets: 25% (rely too much on pay cut, read below)
    Lakers: 20%
    76ers: 15%

    Mike Miller Case:
    LeBron and Wade took pay cut for Heat to sign free agent Mike Miller, then Pat Riley dumped Mike Miller for zero salary. It means he stole LeBron/Wade money and gave them to Heat owner Micky Arison.
     
    #5 ballscientist1, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
  6. Deuce

    Deuce Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    15,860
    Likes Received:
    4,875
    Actually, if Lebron came here he would demand the max and CP3 would take the hair cut. I think he is fine with that if it means getting LeBron.
     
    s3ts likes this.
  7. MorningZippo

    MorningZippo Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    1,658
    Likes Received:
    430
    All of your percentages are in the most literal sense of the phrase, completely random.

    Your justification for your random percentages is because you know it?

    Like, what?
     
  8. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    Paul is unlikely to take one-year contract due to his age. Very likely Rockets will lose Capela, but keep LMM and Ariza.

    Total Salary/lx taxes Budget: 180 million without Anderson and Capela.

    $131+Ariza+LMM.
     
    #8 ballscientist1, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    BigggReddd likes this.
  9. photojoe

    photojoe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    2,320
    Likes Received:
    951
    I want to ask where you came up with these random percentages, but you are a scientist so I will blindly accept them as scientific fact!

    Take that for data
     
    JoeBarelyCares likes this.
  10. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    Read the starting thread first. Your new owner will have many new concerns:
    1. profit concern
    2. LeBron no-trade clause concern (he will NOT allow a team kick him out when he is too old to play)
    3. future and future picks concern (dumping Anderson)
    4. Paul injury-concern
    5. 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 luxury tax concern
     
  11. Blackjack84

    Blackjack84 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2017
    Messages:
    41
    Likes Received:
    35
    Make sure we note that the owner has been on record saying he is more than willing to go into the luxury tax to make this team a championship team so expect him to spend this summer!!!!!!
     
  12. Deuce

    Deuce Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    15,860
    Likes Received:
    4,875
    Who said anything about a 1 year contract?
     
  13. Vin2k2

    Vin2k2 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2006
    Messages:
    1,434
    Likes Received:
    1,620
     
  14. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    reasonable? 5 years 25 million pay cut

    Starting salary: $30.7 million (like Curry, request for pay cut with no-trade clause)

    Sign LeBron, Rockets could lose 3 starters

    Assumption: someone gives Ariza or LMM 2 years 20 million contracts.

    Redick signed 1-year 24 million contract last summer.
     
  15. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    Cavs salary reasonable projection:
    Dump JR Smith and Shumpert for nothing.
    2018 salaries: $61 million
    LeBron and DJordan: $65 million (Thomas walks for nothing)
    Wade and Jeff Green 14 million
    Total 140 million before taxes
     
  16. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    623
    Likes Received:
    704
    Welcome @ballscientist1 to Clutchfans

    First) I would rule out the dark horse 76ers. Too raw. Other options would appeal more to LeBron imo.

    Second) Dan Gilbert “was” willing to spend into oblivion for LeBron and a championship or championships.
    IMO Gilbert is willing to allow the breakup of the Cavs as currently constructed. Much like Miami, LeBron
    has maxed out a teams financial limits during a team’s allotted time period for winning a championship or
    championships.

    Reports say LeBrons wife has requested a move to their LA home as a full time move by 2018. Could be
    interpreted as a cry as, “just get me out of Cleveland......please, move!!”

    Cavs are coming to a crossroads. Some individuals in LeBrons inner circle suggest LeBron has already made
    a decision to leave Cleveland this summer if they fail to win a championship this season. Kyrie Irving trade request
    to Celtics may be a by-product of the Cavs trying to trade Irving to the Clippers for CP3 sooner. A means of
    appeasing LeBron by acquiring CP3.......having been defeated by the Warriors somewhat easily months
    prior. I believe the rumor was Love/Kyrie Irving for CP3/Blake Griffin swap.....since the Cavs couldn’t beat
    the Warriors with LeBron posting 33.6 pts/ 12.0 Rbs/ 42.4 mins and Irving posting 29.4 pts/ 4.0 Rbs/ 40.3 mins
    in that finals series.

    Would DeAndre Jordan and some other change in pieces win a title this year? In turn keeping LeBron in
    Cleveland longer......beyond this summer. Cavs players giving lackadaisical effort in much of this season
    is a signal to me that players don’t have their heart into the game. “Why should we care about playing
    hard if LeBron is going to leave us anyway” type mentality. Cavs would be wise to make some changes
    by the deadline; as that switch is probably not going to be turned on when they want it at the end of
    the season.

    Third) LA is home. Wife will be happy. Will join forces with Paul George. Probably won’t challenge
    the Warriors in the first year due to numerous changes and disruptions (LaVar trying to undercut coaches
    in order to get himself in position to be named coach.......because he thinks he is a great AAU coach & only
    he knows how to coach/pamper his sons). I’m sure he will pull the Lakers off the court if he doesn’t like
    a refs call; like he did protesting the female ref this past summer. That’s great coaching.

    Fourth) Rockets best option to beat Warriors ASAP at seasons end. Harden set for years while still in prime.
    CP3 loves the systems. CP3 just bought a huge mansion. CP3 will get huge extension this summer (if he
    wants multiple years of security over going yr-to-yr). CP3 likes Ariza on same team (liked Ariza while at NO Pels).
    Capela is excellent prototypical center for this small-ball era (perfect for D’Antoni schemes). If Capela walks;
    DeAndre Jordan is willing to join Rockets (from Houston and would love to play in system w/CP3), Tucker/E Gordon
    contracts under control for next yr. Rockets understand that Pace & Space are very effective and that LeBron
    would do well in this system with the current players (perhaps some tweaking). With LeBron and Tucker, do
    the Rockets allow Luc MaM walk? Do the Rockets trade Tucker if they have LeBron and re-sign Luc MaM?
    Luc MaM played with CP3 with LA Clippers and came to Houston on the cheap because of CP3. Gerald
    Green fits right in and probably would love to continue with the Rockets. Up and coming young player(s)
    that can possibly contribute in the form of Qi (if he puts on 15-20 pounds in the offseason) and Hartenstein
    if he works with a shooting coach in the offseason and turns some baby fat into muscle. I expect one if not
    both to be used in moving the Ryan Anderson contract; but if one remains...will get some burn time with
    the Rockets second or third units next season. Especially if LeBron joins the Rockets starters. There should
    be a lot of garbage time next season.

    I’m also a fan of Gentile, Jon Diebler, Troy Williams if they remain or come from overseas.
    Personally, i like the Rockets chances of landing a LeBron moving forward.
     
    #16 ApacheWarrior, Jan 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2018
    bumbum09 likes this.
  17. Newlin

    Newlin Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2015
    Messages:
    3,470
    Likes Received:
    1,250
    But doesn't LeBron just seem miserable in Cleveland? Actually, he really never seems very happy wherever he is.
     
    don grahamleone likes this.
  18. BigggReddd

    BigggReddd Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2012
    Messages:
    2,012
    Likes Received:
    776
    Incorrect. A couple months ago Rich Paul gave an interview saying LeBrons only priority at this point is winning, money doesn't matter. He was told this when asked about the Lakers so that was probably a lowkey "no" because LeBron wont win **** with the Lakers
     
  19. YaoMing#1

    YaoMing#1 Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2002
    Messages:
    4,231
    Likes Received:
    2,085
    That team is garbage.

    Basically losing IT, Shump and jr for Jordan?

    Calderon
    Wade
    Lebron
    Love
    Jordan

    Bench

    Korver
    TT
    Crowder

    That team wouldn’t beat Boston or even the raptors.

    If I’m lebron I rather go to the lakers and team up with Paul George, Ingram and ball.

    That team isnt great but it’s got a higher ceiling than that Cavs squad.

    Deandre jordan is not a game changing move for any team. He’s a nice player to have but he’s not the difference in any team beating the warriors.
     
  20. ballscientist1

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Likes Received:
    14
    Keep the team and add LeBron and DJordan, that is $350 million team salaries in a single season.

    2018 team salaries: 80 millions

    Add LeBron, Paul and Jordan: $100 million

    Add Ariza, LMM, others $20 million.

    Taxes: 150 million

    Your income is only 120 million?
     
Loading...

Share This Page