[The Athletic] The Warriors and Rockets aren't as similar as you think — it's a fascinating strategi

I thought there was an article earlier in the month or last month contrasting the way the two teams play. Is this just a rehash of that?

 

Kenny smith said , Houston is explosive, like 13 points in 2 mins against Minesota which is considered a top 5 team. Warriors probably can do 16, and with durant there just pretty much beating any team out there on the break. Houston really has no chance unless Moute, Tucker, and Paul play stellar lock down D.

Ariza basicly has to give Durant fits and contain him some how... then it will be close and rockets need harden to Shoot and if that don't work paul has to take over if they are preventing harden from scoring. Pretty much it.

 

They aren't as similar as you think is correct. Warriors can consistently make 3's rockets cant.

 

Does GSW have more talent on the offensive end than we do? Of course. People should not forget this one simple fact however: there is only ONE ball. What that means is this:

- Barring offensive rebounds, teams trade possessions
- Only one player has the ball at any given time
- Each successful possession has only one scorer

What this means for the Rockets in a vacuum is that per possession, it doesn't matter if they have 4 allstars in a spread offense while we only have 1 player running the PnR if both are comparable in their ability to end a score. The point of an offensive system is to efficiently manufacturer points and we have a damn good one under MDA, Harden, and CP3.

I hope people do not misunderstand what I am saying that roster doesn't matter, that their all-stars do not matter in comparison to our 2 superstars as they absolutely do in the sense that they can sustain injuries and fatigue much better than our team can. However, if we can keep up the energy in a series with them where 2-3 of our shooters are hot, we have as good a chance as any to beat them.

 

We also get to the line more, rebound offensive boards better, and steal more than they do. GSW are really good, but not unbeatable. Are the odds in their favor? Yes, but we are far, far closer than any other team this season except the Celtics.

 

Realistically, we would probably win 2 games max in a 7 game series vs Warriors if we shoot lights out.

 

If Harden gets his foul called, we have a game. If harden pump fakes and draws the foul and no call, we lose.

I prefer the ball in CP3's hand the last 2-4 minutes left. Harden seems to be careless sometimes at the end of games with the ball.

Rockets have chance to win the series, but not as talented. Will need to come with a good strategy but gsw can shoot lights out on any given day by multiple players. Good luck rockets.

 

My biggest observation is the amount of players they have that can't shoot the 3. GSW really only has 4 capable 3PT shooters this year in Curry, Thompson, Durant and Young, the rest of the team can't shoot worth a lick basically, Casspi shocking has only made 9 threes total this season in 40 games.

GS is thought of as an insane 3PT shooting team, but its funny how top heavy their shooting is. Green, Iggy, Livingston, McCaw are all key non center rotation players who are shooting 30% or below.

 

If KD didn't join the Warriors, they would not be unbeatable. I think the Rockets would take them in 6.

Now with KD, i would not let Klay or Curry shoot. Rockets need to force KD and Dray to shoot the 3s...would prefer to leave them open than let Klay or Curry kill us.

 

Or rather.. if we can get the defensive rebound every single time

 

Also MDA needs to preach defense on top of what you said to beat GSW but he has never done that.

 

When I watch the Warriors play, it's like they are so good that their primary scorers don't even need to contribute on the offensive end so they just focus playing defense all game. Then when the time comes that they need a clutch bucket, they just give it to one of Klay, Curry or KD and they'll make the shot.

When I watch the Rockets play, not only do we struggle defensively on many possessions, one of Harden or CP3 must play well offensively otherwise we'll just lose. Also, our system is clearly very different than theirs. While, we maybe have the occasional nice ball movement when Harden is sitting, Warriors have it all the time and their bench players (filled with ring chasing vets) can all pass very well. Compared to the Warriors, you'll notice our role players fumble the ball all the time when asked to do the same thing. Ariza, Tucker, EG, Black are all TO prone when they try to play-make.

It doesn't help that Harden is the king of turnovers because he often tries to draw fouls which leads to TOs when refs swallow their whistle.

tldr: Warriors are more consistent offensively and defensively. Rockets are more streaky on both ends.

 

good analysis, pretty much agree on all of it.

The big difference I see is how the gsw offense is centered around off-ball movements and their pick n rolls coming off of action from offball screens. combine that with their shooters and their offense is a lot less of an effort. As much as steph could iso bigs the way we force paul and harden to, he doesn't do it nearly as often, opting to run off 2-3 offball screens before he gets into his pick n roll or spots for the shot. It's so much less effort than the types of scoring cp3 is doing. KD similarly is so polished of a shooter that a lot of his opportunities come from spotups, catch-and-shoots off down screens, etc. Combine that with klay doing similar actions and draymond setting dirty screens and having the ability to fake handoffs and playmake, their team is bound to have an easier time scoring than ours.

I'm not sure their bench is superior to ours. I just think they combine their bench players with one to two of their big four and they run similar offensive sets, set dirty screens and one of their big 3 of shooters are ready to go, with guys like iggy and livingston making a living off of their 1-2 goto shots. It's just a lot more off-ball movement than our team overall, which opts to run pick n roll to death until we get a favorable matchup and iso a big. In a lot of ways, the gsw offense feels to me like our offense with Rick Adelman back in the day, except with 10x better shooters/players. Constant movement, pin downs, curls, etc. Combine that with their superstar power and it's no wonder how they score so easy. KD has not had to work nearly as hard to average his 27 than when he was iso'ing all day with OKC. He'd come off down screens but he'd essentially have to still make tons more dribbles to come into his shot. Now, he can score 25 in his sleep with the amount of space Steph (and klay) provide.

The one thing I do feel good about is that this team we currently have, has as many defensive/lengthy wings to defend their stars as we've ever had. They may not be "elite" defenders, but they're solid, and we have the toughness of a guy like Tucker to bang and actually pressure guys like Draymond from having no resistance to find his shooters off their screens. I still think Capella will be the key though. and the flow that cp puts in his stretches. Wouldn't hurt if Harden could learn to find easier ways to score as well in similar ways that the warriors have kd and curry getting their 25 with ease.

 

The problem is that the Warriors when hitting their shots, can really kill your spirit within a minute and turn a 10-15 pt deficit into a 10 pt lead like that. You just cannot let up for even a second!

It’s demoralising how easy they get their shots and hit open threes when you have to fight for every single three and miss wide open ones. If we even had one pure shooter, Klay or Curry, we could match up with them.

CP3 and Harden is not enough unless you have that pure shooter or of course, a great big man. This all offense based since you cannot beat them with defense. Look at our first game, how we still needed to put up 122 to win even with that great defense.

That is why I believe Carmelo would not have made much of a difference. It will take an AD, Lebron, Jokic, Embiid to comfortably battle them. Until then, it will stay a fight as underdogs. I love that role though so let’s embrace it.

If they commit to defense, get some easier shots from three and at least Ryno and Eric find their stroke, we have a good chance. We also have to attack Curry on defense, get him in foul trouble like in the season opener. That will help too.

 

This is delusional. Game isn't played like that, there's other variables that completely change that. It does matter if they have 4 all stars in an offense vs 2 of ours, because they manufacturer offense even more efficiently than we do due to Kerr's system.

Better system + 4 all stars> less efficient system + 2 all stars.

But we can show we can fight, and that hopefully can make up the difference.

SIL

 

We need soild role players that consistently do their jobs => wait for a kink from GSW (each game will be different) then attacking that slight weakness. Most/many all-stars need the ball (taking the ball out of Harden/CP3’s hands) -vs- a role player with a focus on defense just doing their job. THOUGHT: If healthy & a consistent Anderson we are unbeatable, too.

 

As HeyP says... that's the plan... have enough variance that you can win if you play well. If you can't match up, gamble and play that gamble to win. The rest of the league seems to be trying to get the same level of talent. We have quite a bit of talent while not having their level but we have just enough variance in our style that we have a shot to beat them in a series.

 

Basically the only way we beat the warriors in a 7 game series if we get really hot and they go through a slump. It happens and is possible but unlikely given that they have a lot of talented players who would have to slump where if Harden and another player slumps for us we are in trouble.