The Athletic-The opportunity cost of trading Andre Iguodala — mapping out a decision timeline

The opportunity cost of trading Andre Iguodala — mapping out a decision timeline



By Omari Sankofa II
There are three important dates fans should keep in mind as they keep an eye on the Andre Iguodala situation in Memphis: Oct. 21, Dec. 15 and Feb. 6, 2020.

• Oct. 21 is the day before the 2019-20 NBA season kicks off, and the deadline for when the Grizzlies have to pare their roster to 15 players (it’s currently at 17, not counting two-way and Exhibit 10 players).
• Dec. 15 is when free agents signed before Sept. 15 can officially be traded, expanding the likelihood of being able to match salaries in a deal.
• Feb. 6 is the trade deadline, significant for obvious reasons.

Last Monday, The Athletic’s Shams Charania tweeted the Grizzlies refuse to buy Iguodala out of his $17.2 million contract and want the veteran to report to training camp. Acquired from the Golden State Warriors in June along with a future first-round pick, Iguodala has more value as a trade chip than as a foundational roster piece. His championship experience will better serve a contender than a young team that could be years away from the playoffs. And Memphis appears to be set on exploring the trade market in order to maximize the return on the already lopsided transaction with the Warriors.

On paper, it seems to be a straightforward decision. Why should a rebuilding team waive a player who could be flipped into additional assets? There’s no right or wrong answer here, but bringing Iguodala into the season carries an opportunity cost that could clash with some other priorities. The three dates listed above will each bring a series of decisions for the front office. Let’s explore them.

Roster decisions, roster decisions
Memphis has to waive or reach buyouts with two players to reach the 15-man roster limit by Oct. 21. Opinions will vary on who those two players should be, but there are realistically only a handful of candidates.

We know that Iguodala wants a buyout, so we’ll list him. Solomon Hill and Miles Plumlee, acquired from the Hawks in exchange for Chandler Parsons earlier this summer, are theoretical buyout candidates given that Memphis initially tried to reach a buyout with Parsons before trading him. So let’s include them here too.

Ivan Rabb and Bruno Caboclo, who are both on partially guaranteed deals and owed less than $700K combined, should also be listed. Rabb appears to be closer to the bubble than Caboclo after an underwhelming sophomore season and rough summer league showing. Regardless, the Grizzlies could part from either of them cheaply, and they’re listed here for that reason. We’ll also include Josh Jackson, who is on the hot seat.

The Grizzlies are in the midst of a rebuild, and there’s an argument that they should prioritize developing their young players over hanging on to veterans. By that logic, Plumlee and Hill would be the odd men out here. But they could also be tougher to part with. Hill is owed $12.7 million, and Plumlee is owed $12.5 million. Both Hill/Plumlee and the Grizzlies would have to agree to a buyout, and there may not be an incentive for Hill and Plumlee to do so without a line of suitors waiting to sign them. The Grizzlies could also waive them and simply eat the $25.2 million owed, but it seems unlikely as of now given that they were reluctant to release Parsons and his $25.1 million owed.

What if the Grizzlies have to part ways with two of Jackson, Caboclo and Rabb? Jackson is owed roughly $7 million next season and has a team option in 2020-21. Releasing him would likely be cheaper than pursuing buyouts with Plumlee and Hill. But while the front office isn’t high on Jackson, the fact remains that he’s a former top-four draft pick and young enough to turn his career around.

The front office has tough judgment calls to make here. While the potential return on an Iggy trade is enticing, holding onto him adds a complication to the current roster situation.

The (potential) trade market
Several teams have expressed interest in trading for Iguodala — the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets reportedly among them.

A prohibiting factor in a trade is Iguodala’s contract. He’s on the books for $17.2 million next season, and few contending teams have the capability of matching his salary in a trade. Let’s take Houston, for example. The only player on its roster who is trade-eligible and close enough in salary to match is Clint Capela. I would be stunned if they flipped Capela for Iguodala.

On Dec. 15, numerous NBA teams will gain additional paths toward facilitating a trade for Iguodala. The Lakers, another team interested in Iggy, currently lack enough tradeable contracts to acquire him. By mid-December, they would be able to trade Danny Green or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plus another player plus a draft pick. Whether either of those trades are good for both sides is another debate, but the point is that LA will gain the ability to make a trade that it currently cannot because of the CBA’s rules regarding free agency signings and trade eligibility.

The trade market will improve after Dec. 15, that much is a given. But it’s hard to say exactly how much. The Grizzlies reportedly have a high asking price for Iguodala. Dec. 15 will not improve any team’s draft pick situation, at least not immediately. The Lakers, Clippers and Rockets each moved multiple first-rounders this summer. The teams reluctant to part with an additional first-rounder now could still be reluctant in four months for the same reason. By hanging on to Iggy, Memphis is betting that at least one contender will become desperate — far from a guarantee.

If the waiting game successfully lands a first-round pick, the end will justify the means. If it nets a second-round pick, it won’t be the same success. And considering the flurry of draft pick transactions this summer, the latter seems more likely simply because several of the interested teams don’t have many, if any, first-rounders to trade. Keeping Iguodala through opening night is a commitment to keeping him until mid-December, at least.

End of the line
Assuming a trade doesn’t happen sooner, Feb. 6, 2020, will represent a dilemma for the interested parties — panic trade for Iguodala and secure his services for the rest of the season, or pray the Grizzlies fail to secure a deal and attempt to sign him outright after the inevitable buyout?

It’ll represent a dilemma for Memphis too, because keeping Iguodala for that long would’ve cause the Grizzlies to pass on other roster-building opportunities, increasing the pressure to land a great haul in a trade.

Beyond the draft, offseason free agency and trades, midseason signings have become a legitimate roster-building tool for rebuilding teams and contenders alike. The Rockets found key contributors in Danuel House, converted from a two-way deal, and Kenneth Faried this past season. The Grizzlies had great success last year with signing Joakim Noah and Caboclo. Looking further back, the Sixers hit a home run in signing Robert Covington to a multi-year deal in November of 2014. A smart midseason signing can positively swing the trajectory of a franchise, as Covington was later included in a package to help the Sixers land Jimmy Butler.

Roster spots, like cap space, are a tool that can effectively beef up a rotation if used correctly. Teams often enter seasons with an open roster spot for this reason.

If the Grizzlies want to take a flier on any unsigned young players, they’ll need a roster spot to do so. If they decide they want to bump Yuta Watanabe, who is having a great summer, from his two-way contract to a standard contract during the season, that’s another roster spot. Keep in mind that Memphis may need to take more than one player back in an Iguodala trade to match salaries. That’s an additional roster spot, at least.

Iguodala isn’t the only veteran on the roster who could be flipped midseason. Contending teams will also show interest in Jae Crowder, and the parameters of a Crowder trade could also place additional stress on the current roster.

The reward for keeping and eventually trading Iguodala could be huge. Sticking with and developing Rabb, Caboclo and Jackson could also pay dividends. As could entering the season with an open roster spot, enabling the Grizzlies to sign a wayward young player looking to prove himself, or facilitate a different trade with added flexibility. At best, the Grizzlies can only pick two of the three.

There’s no right or wrong answer, but no clear home run, either. And the front office will have to consider all of this as they proceed into the season.

(Photo: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

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