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The astros need to go all in this year

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Air Langhi, May 15, 2017.

?

Go all in?

  1. Yes

    47 vote(s)
    70.1%
  2. No

    20 vote(s)
    29.9%
  1. bobrek

    bobrek Proud Mofo
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    Hernandez, Martinez, no difference. :)
     
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Muh bad.
     
  3. bobrek

    bobrek Proud Mofo
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    But you are correct....that was a big injury.
     
  4. Major

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    To be fair, there is a grass-is-always-greener syndrome here. Marlins fans would likely trade 1 of their rings for 10 years of division titles and competing in the playoffs every year.
     
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  5. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run
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    Yep, plus willingness to trade based on history shouldn't influence preferences going forward. You have to assume that getting in the playoffs = very solid shot at WS. If you want to win a ring, you'd rather have a solid shot every year than a solid shot 1 year. Too much can happen in a single year (injuries, hot/cold players, etc.) to say that a 100+ win team will be more likely to win the WS than a 90 win playoff team.

    (Kinda the %age view someone presented earlier, except I'd say the %age when you try to predict this far in advance has to be relatively equal for any year you get in the playoffs.)
     
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  6. Major

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    i think it sort of depends on the circumstances. 1 1998 team probably has a better chance than 3 1997 teams. And I think RJ upped the 1998 chances a lot because it gave them something they didn't otherwise have (a legit ace) and took them from being a random playoff team to arguably the best team in baseball. On the flipside, adding an ace to the 1990's Atlanta Braves has more of a marginal effect.
     
  7. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    donkeypunch likes this.
  8. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run
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    Agree that circumstances can change things. But that works for you and the other side--such as another player (e.g. Hitchcock) or team getting insanely hot out of nowhere.

    Which is why, when predicting going forward, I think you have to optimize for just getting to the playoffs as much as possible. So I'd say make the deals that give you a lot more upside, but not at the expense of very likely killing your playoff chances in 5 years based on expenses + no minor leaguers. Tanking again shouldn't be in the plans, though it may eventually happen.
     
  9. Marteen

    Marteen Member
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    I don't like the comparisons to last year's Cubs. Didn't they need 7 games to beat an injury depleted Indians team after being down 3-1 while also needing one of the most bizarre timed rain delays you will ever see? As good as they were last year, they got pretty lucky last year. I hope the Astros don't put themselves in a position where "You don't have to go all in. Let's cross our fingers and see what happens". I do understand to not go all-in, though.
     
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