It's going to take this team some time to learn how to win, and ultimately get to the playoffs. In my opinion that's a few yrs off, and it will also depend on when (or if) Crane is willing to spend big $$ to go after premium FA talent. That said, how many players (in your opinion) from the current roster will be on the team on opening day 2018? Certainly understand injuries, trades etc. I'll go with: Pitchers Keuchel McHugh Catchers none *don't think that Castro is going to turn it around and prove that he can hit INF Altuve OF Springer Marisnick Add Correa & Appel from the farm system, and that's a core of only seven players. Hopefully the #2 & #5 picks from this upcoming draft pan out as well. The reason I'm bringing this up is I think the 'Stros have a long way to go in building a legitimate WS contender (Longer than most people think).
How long you figure? Have you factored in the possibility that they cash-in their abundance of prospects/young players for established/above average players simply to make a run? However, the goal is not just building a WS contender, its building a team that should be immune to any "down/rebuilding" years and has a chance to win every season.
I think 2018 hopefully includes Altuve, Correa, Springer, Carter, Singleton, Moran, Castro, Marisnick, Appel, Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers and Vesaquez. Obviously having the guys above under club control or bargain long term deals is going to allow them to spend a lot once they start winning over the next few years and drawing more AND with a few more drafts to really bolster/replenish the farm with all the call ups. They should easily be able to fill in the holes with superb talent like they have now with Gregerson, Qualls, Lowrie, Gattis?, etc
How many guys do you want in your ideal core? 7 is great. You just have to have other pieces not be utter garbage.
It's not the number of present players that could potentially be the core going forward. It's that most of these guys are young and unproven. Not saying that they won't prove themselves, but right now the jury is still out. . It's going to take time to find guys who can produce like when we had (Bags, Biggio, Berkman, Roy O, Wagner, etc). Not comparing what we currently have to these guys as three guys of that core are HOF type players. Point being they had a few yrs of consistently producing, and then they went out and spent some money by bringing in guys like Kent, Clemens, Pettitte, Beltran, etc. Jury is out on every single player I listed except Altuve as to whether or not they can put up numbers consistently. Let's see if Keuchel & McHugh can repeat last yr. Certainly like the potential I see in Springer, but only time will tell what he is. Correa & Appel haven't even played a game at the major league level yet.
Maybe I am mistaken, but I do not think Jose Altuve has proven he can put up numbers consistently either.
I think you're looking at a very long period of time and comparing it to one year. The players you listed in that core came up over about a 7 or 8 year period. The free agents you mentioned joined the team 10 years after Bagwell came up. Many of the guys in the core weren't even drafted when Bagwell and Biggio started their MLB careers. If you're looking at that kind of time frame to build a core, then what they have on the team today is sort of irrelevant - that's a time frame of 2015 to 2025 or so.
I think you mis-represented what the true 90's "core" Astros players were as you basically discussed two separate eras of Astros baseball (which can basically be equated to before MMP and after MMP). Biggio/Bagwell/Wagner/Kile/Hampton/Reynolds were all brought up/acquired/reached prime in the early 90's and actually started to peak in the mid 90's. Unfortunately, the strike killed what was possibly going to feature a young Astros team poised to make a run, and they didn't get back till 97. You then menition Berkman/Oswalt and the Kent-Pettite-Clemens years, but that all really didn't start till 2001, with 2000 serving as a "transition" year between the two eras. So, if this current team can make what was an equivalent to the Astros mid-90's ascension (pre-strike), then they may not be all that far off.
Altuve has had 2100+ MLB ABs. He is what he is, which is a very good hitter. He is also only 24 years old and about 4 years from his prime.
You're wrong that we are still far away These are all the guys from last years final 4, that has an OPS over .725 Baltimore Orioles Spoiler Steve Pearce .930 (complete out of nowhere fluke) Nelson Cruz .859 Adam Jones .780 Manny Machado .755 Nick Markakis .729 Kansas City Royals Spoiler Alex Gordon .783 Lorenze Cain .751 San Francisco Giants Spoiler Buster Posey .854 Mike Morse .811 Hunter Pence .777 Pablo Sandoval .739 Angel Pagan .731 St.Louis Cardinals Spoiler Matt Holliday .811 Matt Adams .779 Johnny Peralta .779 Matt Carpenter .750 Jon Jay .750 Houston Astros Spoiler Jose Altuve .830 Evan Gattis .810 George Springer .804 Chris Carter .799 Luis Valbuena .776 Colby Rasmus .735 Now all of our guys are somewhat unproven to a degree (Altuve included), While its possible some of our guys falter, it's also completely possible that some of our guys can still bubble up (Marisnick,Lowrie,Singleton,Castro). As you can see the contenders didn't exactly have murderers rows. The Astros need to play with the lineup so there isn't as much feast or famine, and we need to find at least one more frontline pitcher, but that can be done in one offseason if necessary. I see no reason this team can't contend by next season.
And prior to 2014 Altuve had 1500+ at bats and produced wRC+ of 80, 102, and 85. I am happy that he has gone from below average hitter to very good hitter in the span of 1 year, but it appears we have very different definitions of "consistently"
Yeah, I have no idea what his WOPR is, but there's no guarantees that last year wasn't his career year. I don't think so, but who knows....
Like I said, we have a bunch of young players that we have no idea whether or not they can produce on the major league level. Odds are the majority of them will NOT (which every team goes through), and this is why I think we're further away then most people think. If they want to go out and spend a bunch of money on FA that could change things, but we have no idea at this point if Crane will be willing to do this. If you think this team (as is) will contend next year, well all I can say to you is good luck. Even with Correa and Appel.
Springer .804 OPS (300 PA) small sample, but it was a good one Gattis .771 OPS (800 PA) Carter .760 OPS (1500 PA) .799 over the last 3 seasons Rasmus .752 OPS (3000 PA) .748 over the last 3 seasons Lowrie .744 OPS (2500 PA) .745 over the last 3 seasons Altuve .740 OPS (2200 PA) .751 over the last 3 seasons Castro .716 OPS (1500 PA) .740 over the last 3 seasons We have guys who have proven they can hit at the MLB level, for whatever reason you are assuming these guys will mostly stop hitting. That's not even counting the actual prospects like Marisnick, Correa, Tucker and Singleton.
We're talking about a league where Wild Card teams win championships and teams are competing for Wild Card spots with 85-90 wins. This isn't the NBA where 1 seeds win virtually every championship.
A few years ago, Kansas City was 72-90 and had been terrible for a decade plus. The following year, they improved. Last year, they made the World Series. This year, they are 7-2. They didn't have proven talent that was producing on a major league level - that's the whole idea behind rebuilding. No one is saying the Astros WILL be good in a few years. But the design certainly is to do so and the model itself is fairly sound. Of course the players have to ultimately produce, but that's why they have collected so many of them. There will be a lot of Singletons mixed in, and you keep bringing people up until you have a core that works. Then you fill in the remaining holes with free agents.
So you're saying that if the young talent mostly flames out and they do not spend any money in free agency that the Astros will not be contenders? Insightful.
