Synergy Stats pt.3 - Game 3 Featured Correct Adjustments

Part 1 Part 2

Asik guards LA out of the gate

Here was the ranking of opponent's points per possession in a post play in the regular season.

1. James Harden, 0.53ppp
2. Omer Asik, 0.72ppp
3. Dwight Howard, 0.75ppp
4. DMo, 0.79ppp
...
?. Terrence Jones, 0.91ppp

Starting Asik clearly disallowed LA to get into a rhythm until the 3rd quarter. The negative part of this adjustment is that TJones is an important part of the offense. In the playoffs thus far, he's taken 10.5 FGA per game at an excellent 52.4%, just on par with his regular season stats. Usually this comes off posts and plays to the basket as TJones is a poor spot-up shooter.


TJones in the regular season

So the other adjustment they made to compensate TJones production on the offense end was right in line.

Dwight fewer posts, more PnR and cuts to alleys.

We saw James Harden running the PnR with Dwight at much higher clip in Game 3. As mentioned, this was the Rockets biggest deficiency in Game 1 and Game 2 on offense at a dreadful 0.47ppp yet running it 23% of the time.


Rockets play distribution in Playoffs vs. Blazers



PnR distribution in Playoffs vs. Blazers

It was also really dependent on Harden executing as he runs 50%+ of the PnR plays and was shooting a dreadful 0.23ppp when he tried to score. In Game 3 he executed (or at least regressed to the mean).


Dwights production in regular season

The result is triple-fold. Dwight got away from his inefficient post play, went to a much higher converting PnR (1.28ppp)/cutting to the basket (amazing 1.63ppp), and more than compensated for offensive absence of TJones. Dwight beasted in game 3.


Parsons slashing to the hoop every time

He had an awful game 1 and 2, and also an awful game 3. but coach told him to drive at every given opportunity.


Parsons Goldsberry

He really only has 4 shots and his 3's weren't falling (21.4% in Game 1&2). Coach told him to just ****ing take the ball to the basket every ****ing time. This is a confidence move and a great adjustment, regardless if it produced.


Patrick Bev Spots Up


Bev in the Regular Season

The Rockets started off the game with Bev making spot-ups. Clearly coach told him not be hesitant with the 3 and shoot when he has the chance. Since Harden is handling the PnR most of the time, this is one of Bev's only good converting shots.


Everyone was given the greenlight

This was a great confidence move. The results might have been painful to watch (Harden, Parsons, Lin), but imo it's necessary to get young players grounded again. The Rockets were shooting half the rate of 3FGA in Game 1&2 than they did in the regular season vs. the Blazers. That's just not Rockets basketball. Today they shot 31 3FGA compared to 16 3FGA in Game2.


Final Thoughts

Waiting to implement these changes til Game 3 is something that I think can be criticized but at least seeing these changes motivated me to post again. McHale and staff made the right changes according to advanced metrics.

As a final side note, execution, IQ, and nerves is something hard to teach; advanced stats have a hard time revealing them. Troy came in and stepped up like this is all day while Harden, Parsons, and Lin continue to perform on a rollercoaster. I think adjustments salvaged a lot of this game, but I also think there's some things you can't fix without a veteran leader or a guy like Troy Daniels.

 

As a short follow up on ppp,

- Lamarcus Aldridge fell to earth from game 1(1.30 ppp) & game 2 (1.15 ppp) -> to (0.92 ppp)
- Dwight, to a respectable (1.03 ppp) in game 2 and below average (0.87 ppp) in game 1 -> (1.09 ppp) in game 3. The adjustment really paid off and Dwight has been a real workhorse this series.
- Chandler Parsons, even with all his misses, compared to (0.88 ppp) in game 2 -> produced (1.00 ppp). He has clearly been instructed not to shoot the 3 as much until his game comes to him, at only 3.5 3FGA per game the last two games.
- Patrick Bev continues to shine if he sticks to his spot-up 3FGA, at (1.07 ppp) with four 3's made last night and six attempts.
- Harden with all his faults, went from abysmal (0.73 ppp) in the first two games -> to (0.93 ppp). This is still one-tenth off his regular season average. He dominates the ball and needs to continue to perform for Rockets to succeed.
- Lin likewise from a completely garbage (0.56 ppp) -> had a respectable (1 ppp)
- Troy Daniels scored at (1.5 ppp).

The Rockets will just need to continue to execute on offense and a lot of that will be on the shoulders of Harden. In game 4, I expect more of the focus to turn on defense, where the Rockets were unable to defend things outside of LA's post play.



Effectiveness of Rockets Defense

If you compare to how the arrows have moved since Game 1 & 2, the Rockets continued to shut down the PnR, contained post play, but gave up a lot in isolations, screens, and hand offs (put back and transitions are expected to have higher ppp). The Rockets will need to do a better job on Defense moving forward.

 

Thanks for that response. I'll be honest and say I'm kind of dismayed by the view counts and # of replies. Other guy gave props to McHale in one paragraph for the correct coaching adjustments in game 3 and got 2.1k views. My three parts didn't get that combined haha. :grin:

It's fine though; posters who want to see statistics will hopefully see this thread and it provides answers to several of the other threads:

- Should we feature Dwight in the Post more? (no)
- Should we continue to set ISO/heroball with Harden? (surprisingly, yes)
- Should the Rockets continue shooting threes? (yes to Bev, Lin, Harden, not yet to Parsons)
- Should we run more plays? (yes, but the PnR specifically has been horrible through Harden)

Part 1 has the most telling information imo. Maybe next time I will add a thread title like "Synergy Stats Prove LIN is Better than HAREN!"