Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

The debate for which power forward to acquire in the off-season has been discussed numerous times before, but getting one mid-season is absolutely the best course of action. Paul Millsap is better than LaMarcus Aldridge by almost every advanced statistic (comparison below). Paul Millsap, in my opinion, is the most logical choice and he is by far the best fit, most attainable, and the most tradable.

Advantages of a mid-season trade:

1) Rockets can sign and trade Millsap if needed after the season. This is the most important fact that gets left out. If the Lakers can’t get far in the playoffs or if Kevin Love just can’t stand Khan anymore, we can package Asik + Millsap + other assets to get this done.

2) This also gives us a better chance to retain Parsons, which I think is crucial for us to contend. Parsons is worth $8-10 million at least on the open market, so we can spend $7-8 million more on elite talent, which is the difference between a Howard/Love and Millsap.

3) Rockets pay the least amount for an upgrade, since a player’s value diminishes the most right before trade deadline if the player cannot be re-signed by original team

4) Allows a trial period to assess fit without commitment, and gives us a better chance to sign him if it works out

5) Does not affect cap room going forward if Millsap is not re-signed

Why Millsap over Aldridge?

1) Paul Millsap is better than Lamarcus Aldridge by almost every advanced statistic.

Paul Millsap (Career; This Season)
True shooting % - 56.4; 54.6
Effective field goal % - 52.1; 49.4
Total rebound % - 20.1; 19.6
Ast % - 10.3; 15.1
Stl % - 2.1; 2.1
Blk % - 2.8; 2.2
Off rating – 113; 113
Def rating – 104; 105
Win shares per 48 min – 0.156; 0.162

Lamarcus Aldridge (Career; This Season)
True shooting % - 53.6; 51.4
Effective field goal % - 49.4; 46.6
Total rebound % - 13.1; 13
Ast % - 9.7; 12.4
Stl % - 1.3; 1.4
Blk % - 2.3; 2.7
Off rating – 112; 106
Def rating – 107; 106
Win shares per 48 min – 0.144; 0.117

2) Millsap is “easily” attainable, while Aldridge is not on the market. Utah has Favors, Kanter, and Jefferson, so the most likely to not re-sign is Millsap, so he comes at a premium discount before the trade deadline.

3) Millsap is a better fit. The advanced stats don’t lie. Millsap is better at spreading the floor and passing, which is a must for this offense. He also can set a better pick, has higher basketball IQ, and does things that don’t show up on stats.

Other advantages of Millsap:

1) Millsap allows us to keep our options open regarding future cap space. Out of all the potential upgrades at PF, Millsap may be the only one willing to sign for a 2 year contract (of course at premium salary). Contracts of both Lin and Asik will end 2 years after this summer. By giving Millsap a premium 2 year contract, we set ourselves up for maximum cap room for off-season in 2015. Harden will only be 25 with still 3 years left on his contract.

2) Millsap has the Harden effect. Much like Harden in OKC, Millsap is not playing enough minutes and is negatively affected by his own players. Utah’s offense goes through Jefferson on the low post, so Millsap is getting less touches and his usage on offense is limited. Favors also is playing lights out and he’s the future for the Jazz; again, Millsap gets the shaft. This presents a great buy low opportunity for the Rockets.

Conclusion

Paul Millsap is the absolutely best option for the Rockets at the power forward position. He fits our offensive scheme and is underappreciated by most fans. Millsap is also the most attainable player for a significant upgrade and his situation presents a great buy low opportunity. If the Rockets trade for Millsap during the season, it enhances our position by giving us many more options in the future.

 

I think we have around $7-9 million in cap space, so we can absorb a large chuck of his salary without giving them equal salary in return. The Jazz will need a back up power forward, but they are more looking for wings. One trade I think we can do is giving them Patterson + Morris for Millsap. Patterson can back up Favors and Morris can slide to the 3. As you have seen with the Rockets, Patterson can also play the 5 for limited minutes, so it's a win-win situation for both teams.

 

I often hear this response, but I have already provided advanced stats showing that Millsap > Aldridge, which is the 2nd star many people want. Also, in my original post, I stated how getting Millsap IMPROVES ours chances our landing a 2nd star by packaging him and Asik.

Everybody gets manhandled by elite 4s out there, but we have Asik to help out. His efficiency on offense balance this out. As you can see

Landry is only an offensive player, and not in the same league as Millsap. Landry's total reb% 12.2, ast% 5.2, stl% 1.0, blk% 1.5, is horrible compared to Millsap's at 20.1, 10.3, 2.1, and 2.8 respectively.

Utah was thinking about playing Millsap at the 3 before, so yes, he can definitely fit in with an uptempo team. He won't be playing 3 for us, but he is the ideal 4 IMO.