STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

JeopardE · Jul 15, 2008

lalala902102001 said:

I've got an advise for you:

dont invest until this economy recovers. Put your money in a money market account.
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What he said. This is no market for beginners. The bears will send you home crying to your mama.

SWTsig · Jul 15, 2008

HombreDeHierro said:

What advice would you give a beginner on getting started?

What are ways to get the biggest ROI? How do you get your outlook on the market?

Im looking into oil and energy....but not sure where to start or what companies to look at.
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as a novice myself, i'll go ahead and say that right now is about the hardest damn time to start getting into the market.... a lot of people seem to think that the commodities bubble is bursting and odds are is that you've already missed the boat.

radapharoah · Jul 15, 2008

robbie380 said:

hey rada...if you haven't noticed yet CZZ is almost trading perfectly with sugar prices. i just saw this the other day and figured i'd pass it along.
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US Election Season Freezes Ethanol Tariff Talk

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--In any other year, historic flooding in corn country and $4 gasoline would have been the breaks the Brazil needed in its long quest to crack the U.S. market.

Unfortunately for Brazil's ethanol producers, it's an election year.

Flooding in the Midwest, which damaged corn crops across the region, exposed how over-reliance on corn-based ethanol has left the U.S. supply vulnerable to dramatic swings between oversupply and shortage. Nationwide, gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon for the first time in June. Both events emboldened opponents of a tariff on Brazilian ethanol, the only factor preventing the cheaper, sugarcane-based fuel additive from flooding the U.S. market.

Granted, high corn prices have already made some export volumes economically feasible. Brazil exported 188 million gallons of sugarcane ethanol to the U.S. last year, and expects that figure to increase fivefold in 2008.
The November elections are keeping the window for eliminating the tariff nailed shut. Congress tends to shy away from major policy shifts in the run-up to the vote, fearing backlash from constituents and anticipating a new, post-election political order. For a time, it appeared that high gasoline prices and a flood-damaged corn crop would trump political concerns. But as the floods appeared to cause less damage to farmland than expected, and gas prices began to plateau, a repeal of the tariff became increasingly unlikely.

"There's a good economic rationale for lifting the tariff, but it's more of a political challenge to get rid of it," said Divya Reddy, an analyst with Eurasia Group, an energy consultancy. "The (flooding) damage would have to be quite severe for them to actually lift the tariff."

Although the tariff's opponents are increasingly optimistic about their long-term chances, the outlook beyond November is unclear. Republican presidential frontrunner Sen. John McCain supports removing the tariff, but Sen. Barack Obama, his Democratic rival from Illinois, doesn't.
Tariff Tug-Of-War

Ethanol is cheaper to produce from sugarcane than corn, but is mostly priced out of the U.S. market by a 54-cent tariff, which was put in place in 1980 to protect the struggling domestic ethanol industry. While several bills were introduced in the current Congress to lift or reduce the tariff, politicians representing agricultural districts have prevented any from reaching a vote.

Last year, U.S. ethanol refiners produced 6.5 billion gallons of ethanol, up from 50 million gallons in 1980. The additive is credited with helping to stabilize gasoline prices after Hurricane Katrina shut down Gulf Coast refiners in 2005. As corn prices have risen, the tariff was for most of this year the main reason many U.S. producers were able to stay in business.
U.S. ethanol producers have had trouble making the case that they are reducing gasoline prices lately, however, as AAA reported a nationwide average of $4 a gallon for the first time on June 8.

"When gasoline was $3 at the pump...the popular thing was to keep the tariff in place," said John Redpath, head of oil and agricultural trading at Deutsche Bank. "Now, it's a different story."

Ethanol's impact on agriculture is hotly debated, with recent estimates blaming the additive for anywhere between 3% and 75% of the increase in corn prices. Corn prices surged to a record $7.9925 a bushel on June 27, amid fears that flood-damaged farmland would not produce enough corn for both food and fuel.

"If you have flooding or if you have a severe drought, you're using what would have been buffer crop for ethanol production," said Josh Byrge, an analyst with the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who last week authored an article in a Fed publication advocating the tariff's removal.

An unprecedented backlash against U.S. ethanol formed during the worst of the flooding, in early June. Meat and food groups, whose members are feeling the sting of high corn prices, issued statements against the tariff. Sen. Richard Lugar, D-Ind., said he supported ending the tariff, a rare move by a farm-state senator.
Flooding The Airwaves

Sensing a shift in public opinion, the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, or Unica, ran anti-tariff advertisements over the July 4 holiday weekend in California and Florida.

But Unica's campaign may end up as the high-water mark for the effort to lift the tariff this year. Weather conditions improved in the Midwest at the end of June, and corn growers say crop damage will be less severe than expected. Corn has fallen sharply over the last week and now trades at $6.55 a bushel. Gasoline prices are also showing signs of cresting, having risen 11 cents in June, compared with a more than 30 cent increase in May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"We're under no illusion that just doing some ad is going to change this, but we wanted to be on the record," said Joel Velasco, chief representative of Unica in Washington, D.C. "We think we need to build momentum."

Unica is most likely laying groundwork for a post-election battle, rather than hoping for change this year, said Reddy, with Eurasia Group.

President George W. Bush only began pushing for the tariff's removal in his second term, a reminder that neither McCain's nor Obama's position today is a guarantee of what's to come, Reddy said.

New support for keeping the tariff could also emerge from unexpected quarters. Some believe importing more Brazilian ethanol would undermine U.S. energy independence.

"Ethanol is an ugly baby, but it's our baby," said T. Boone Pickens, the oil billionaire. "I'm not against any fuel unless it's foreign."
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@ T. Boone Pickens

thelasik · Jul 15, 2008

SWTsig said:

as a novice myself, i'll go ahead and say that right now is about the hardest damn time to start getting into the market.
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Truth. Don't blow your money if you don't know what you are doing.

HombreDeHierro · Jul 15, 2008

thelasik said:

Truth. Don't blow your money if you don't know what you are doing.
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well how do i learn what im doing? lol

Air Langhi · Jul 15, 2008

HombreDeHierro said:

well how do i learn what im doing? lol
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I don't think anyone gets good at trading without losing some money. Consider it your educational expenses.

Mr. Brightside · Jul 15, 2008

JeopardE said:

What he said. This is no market for beginners. The bears will send you home crying to your mama.
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Well that's assuming he only buys long positions. When I first started trading, I only sold short. I am more comfortable being short, then being long. Right now is a great time in the market for short sellers.

HombreDeHierro · Jul 16, 2008

Mr. Brightside said:

Well that's assuming he only buys long positions. When I first started trading, I only sold short. I am more comfortable being short, then being long. Right now is a great time in the market for short sellers.
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short meaning quickly flipping shares?

thelasik · Jul 16, 2008

HombreDeHierro said:

short meaning quickly flipping shares?
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Dude first thing you need to do is grab a book on investing and read it a couple times.

Mango · Jul 16, 2008

HombreDeHierro said:

short meaning quickly flipping shares?
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What is your definition of: quickly?

Short Selling

cdastros · Jul 16, 2008

http://www.investopedia.com/dictionary/default.asp

Kwame · Jul 16, 2008

What do you guys think of ATVI? Their merger with Blizzard is complete and the stock is up over 16% over the last few days. I think the long term prospects of this company are very good. Activision is about to split, so I was thinking that it was good time to buy.

RocketsPimp · Jul 16, 2008

JeopardE said:

Bah, r****ded tech selloff today for good reason. Thanks Icahn.

/still hanging on to AAPL long term. That's the plan, for now. Hard to argue with 1 million iPhone sales over the weekend *despite* this ridiculous economy.
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Does it not matter that many of those are subsidized? Seriously, I'm not sure how the compensation works out.

I still think there is a better chance of AAPL hitting 140-150 than it hitting 180+ in the short term.

thelasik · Jul 16, 2008

Hoping NUE goes up 4-5 bucks after earnings tomorrow so I can make a quick buck.

SWTsig · Jul 17, 2008

thank you FNM for the nice 33% return.

s land balla · Jul 17, 2008

SWTsig said:

thank you FNM for the nice 33% return.

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Is that 33% since you bought? If so, big up yo'self.

SWTsig · Jul 17, 2008

sLaNd B a L L a said:

Is that 33% since you bought? If so, big up yo'self.
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yessir.

RocketsPimp · Jul 17, 2008

Those BAC shares I picked up 2 days ago for 19.18 are looking good now (even though I thought it would hit 17). Wish I could have picked up more to hold.

I threw some "lottery money" at BBI too as a flip at around 2.02. I'm hoping to see 3-3.5 in the next month then I'm out.

robbie380 · Jul 17, 2008

thelasik said:

Hoping NUE goes up 4-5 bucks after earnings tomorrow so I can make a quick buck.
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thelasik · Jul 17, 2008

robbie380 said:

image
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lol, true.

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