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Stats may show that with Lawson, the Rockets will have a top 3 offense this season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Sep 16, 2015.

  1. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Let's start with a couple of basic stats:


    Rockets' offensive rating last year: 107.0 (12th of 30)

    Rockets' offensive rating with Harden on the floor last year: 110.6
    Rockets' offensive rating with Harden off the floor last year: 96.6


    Nuggets' offensive rating with Lawson on the floor last year: 108.0
    Nuggets' offensive rating with Lawson off the floor last year: 96.9



    Now, Harden played 36.8 minutes per game last year. So the offensive rating during those minutes was 110.6

    That leaves 11.2 minutes per game that Harden was off the court. Assuming Lawson is on the court during those 11.2 minutes, I will take his 108 rating from his time in Denver and apply it to those 11.2 minutes.


    If you weight the offensive ratings to the number of minutes, the Rockets would have an offensive rating of:


    110.0 in 2015-16. That would have been 5th last year.


    If we take Lawson's offensive rating when he played with George Karl in an even more uptempo system and apply it to the 11.2 minutes Harden sits, the offensive rating comes to:

    110.9 in 2015-16. That would have been tied for 3rd last year, with only the Clippers (112.4) and Warriors (111.6) ahead.





    That is not even taking into consideration that both Lawson and Harden playing together could make both of their offensive ratings increase, thus increasing the offensive rating as a whole even more.



    Now, of course this isn't a perfect measurement. But it gives an idea of how much better the offense could be simply from not having a large drop-off in production when Harden rests.
     
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  2. Rockets025

    Rockets025 Rookie

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    Here's my calculations

    Ty/Beverly/Terry
    Harden/McDaniels/Thornton
    Ariza/Brewer/dekker
    Jones/Dmo/Harrell
    Dwight/Capella

    = top 3 offense
     
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  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member

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    And on defense?

    DD
     
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  4. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
    .......
    .......
    .......
     
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  5. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    Almost certainly better than when we had Aaron Brooks as our starting PG.
     
  6. bmd

    bmd Member

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    That's much harder to calculate.

    Reason being on offense, both Harden and Lawson were the ball-dominant players that the offense ran through. So you can see the impact they have on offense in the statistics.

    But measuring defense in the same way is much more difficult. I'm not sure how to do it.


    But I will say this... last year Dwight missed a whole bunch of games, and even the games he played he was not very good because he was hurt. Beverley was the same... he missed a bunch of games and wasn't very good on defense because he was playing through injury.

    With all of the injuries, the Rockets were still able to have a defensive rating in the top 10 (8th).

    I mean they were playing a good chunk of the season with Terry, Prigioni, and a hobbled Beverley at PG.

    Having Dwight back in much better health, having Beverley back with much better health and playing less, but more intense minutes, and having Capela play instead of Joey Dorsey, there is no reason why they can't maintain a top-10 defense.
     
  7. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    See that's the thing no one is talking about, or at least I haven't seen addressed yet.

    James took a nice leap forward last year in improving his defense. It's so hard to be a strong 2-way player, especially when a team leans on you so heavily on one of those ways. Take Ariza last year. He came in as a purported 3 & D player. "3 & D" "3 & D" "3 & D" , that's all we heard. When his 3 point slump hit, and boy did it...seemed like it would never end, then people said "well it's because he has to play so much D that his 3 isn't falling"

    Both Beard & Ty have gotten bad raps in the past on their D.
    [​IMG]

    But both are relied upon so heavily on the offensive side. I think with both of them alleviating each other with help carrying the offensive load, then both will have more energy to spend towards the defensive side.

    So like bmd was suggesting, I think they could both help each other's O rating increase, but I bet you will see an even bigger impact on their D rating.

    I am rrreally looking forward to James taking an even bigger step forward this year on D. I really hope he is focusing on that.



    Back to BMD's Orating assessment, I think you can see us get into that top 3 on offense. Let's say Ty helps Rocket's Harden-On-Court O Rating get to 112. Then the Ty-On-Court / Harden Off O Rating is slightly less, but more than his Nuggets days, maybe 109. I can't imagine teams are not already preparing for the Rockets to be an even bigger offensive powerhouse than last year, even if the BSPNs of the sports world are ignoring it.

    But it's sort of a stretch to transfer last year's Rockets O Rating to this year's as a starting estimation. Why? Cause of names like Papanikalou, , Black,Dorsey, Daniels, Canaan, Garcia, etc. And because of the endless rotating door of injuries. Our squad this year is so much more stacked, and hopefully we can assume we won't repeat such an injury-riddled regular season.

    And with Nuggets team O rating, well, it was the Nuggets. So hard to transfer a Lawson-led Nuggets O rating to a Lawson-led Rockets O rating.

    But I don't think it's far off to suggest that with Lawson, the team's Orating while Harden is off the court will only drop very slightly. That was the whole point in getting Ty, right? So 110-112 w/ Harden on.....107-108 Harden Off. Very doable. And that's not even talking about the whole enchilada....Offensive Rating differential with the opponent...
     
  8. Sooner423

    Sooner423 Contributing Member

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    ...or Jason Terry for that matter.
     
  9. jump shooter

    jump shooter Contributing Member

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    And if your better offensive calculations are remotely correct then there will be less missed shots which should hopefully put a lot less pressure on your transition defense.
     
  10. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Another good point.
     
  11. Codman

    Codman Contributing Member

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    The early stats may suggest different results based on an examination of individual players. However, when you put this group together and account for the growth on defense from last year, I don't think we'll be too shabby.

    Our starting PG, for the moment, is an absolute pitbull on defense. He is still learning to stay out of foul trouble, but you can count on Bev to be one of the better on-the-ball defenders on the team and in the league at his position. Next, you have to assume that Trevor isn't going to have a let down in his commitment to defense, and just like Bev, he may be one of the most underrated defenders in the league.

    In my opinion, the average fan seems to unintentionally ignore the way in which Trev defends the passing lane and uses his footwork to guard more with his chest, rather than reaching for a nit-picky foul. Trev's defense also goes unnoticed in terms of his anticipation. It's RARE that Trev falls for an up-fake, which in turn, doesn't force our bigs to step up and foul or allow our defense to collapse in the paint.

    James Harden is the wild card in the starting lineup. I'm probably in the minority, but I think James is an above-average defender. This last year evidenced that. I'm hoping the pain of not winning MVP (WHICH HE SHOULD HAVE, even if I were not a Rockets fan), will cause him to invest more time defending his position and helping out.

    I forget who made it, but one poster showed how James' offense and scoring had a positive correlation with him recording a steal, forcing a turnover or contesting a shot. Those actions seem to will him to speed up the tempo and attack the rim, where he is arguably at his best.

    Dwight Howard...I don't have to say much. I don't give a hot damn if he smiles and laughs during games. The man is still underrated on the defensive end and flat out changes games. Even when he's injured, he changes shots and is a rebounding powerhouse. I can't think of another player in the league that I feel more comfortable securing a rebound. Shaq is retired, Dream is still a legend courtside, but other than Manimal, Dwight is the best rebounder in the league. Again, that's just my opinion.

    When you combine all of that, our defense isn't too bad. However, we cannot rely on Trevor so much to close out in the corners. McHale asks too much of him to cover for the moments when guys fall for stupid up-fakes
    .

    Our greatest defensive weakness, momentarily :p, is at the power forward position. DMo, like I mentioned, is healing slowly. TJ, while a talented forward is somewhat undersized and gets bullied by the ZBos of the league. Dwight is then forced to guard two bigs and our paint-oriented defense becomes a problem. Luckily, that's being worked on, so I've heard.

    I'm actually very excited about the defense that's going to come from our bench.

    Look, I will never apologize for despising everything about the Denver Nuggets and their fans, but I've watched Ty Lawson enough to see that he *CAN* play defense. He just wasn't forced to play defense under an incompetent Brian Shaw. Shaw lost his boys early on, and if you've coached before, you know that defense is the most difficult part of the game to enforce on a group of players that know you're laughing behind their backs.

    Ty is incredibly fast, but not just in terms of his legs. If you watch tape of him, he moves his hands and arms at an ungodly speed. It's even noticeable in his quick shooting release. My point is that TY is going to be a pest on defense, once he buys in to our leaders in Dwight and James, and he's going to be a team leader in steals, alongside Pat Bev. When McHale learns how to find mismatches and plays Pat and Ty together, opposing backcourts are going to be miserable trying to get the offense rolling or spacing the floor for a post-pass. Pat and Ty are going to be lethal. ***This all means nothing if Ty doesn't fight his demons off of the court*** (But, it appears that he's happy, healthy and ready to have another great season. Even in Denver's shi%show, he had a good season statistically).

    Moreover, Jet won't have to worry about getting beat due to old age because he'll have back court support right there.

    Here's where I'm prepared to get flamed, which seems to be a regular thing now, sadly :(:

    I'm expecting Corey Brewer to be in the running for All-Defensive second team. I don't think he is as good as TrevDawg on defense overall, but he does things that are more noticeable. His speed is impeccable, and despite some mental errors here and there (those missed dunks in the Clips series :eek:) , he may be the most underrated defender on the team, outside of the Dwight critics. He's in his prime, on a new contract and, if last year means anything, there's no reason to assume he won't improve defensively. He plays the passing lanes just slightly inferior to Trev, but when he comes up with a steal/turnover, he's much faster than Ariza, and sometimes, more explosive.

    It seemed like he was one of the few guys who could get us easy buckets during offensive droughts. He thrives off of momentum, and when his defense leads to a his own bucket or a teammate's bucket, he locks in even more. Anyway, that's my bet, (with some of the credit coming from my mentor, ThundaD): CB is going to be recognized on defense instead of offense for a change, and yes, I'm aware he dropped 55 on us. He can still be a 2-way player.

    I haven't been as excited for our defense since JVG was our coach, but this group's mixture of speed, youth and vets and (hopefully) some consistent competence and stronger in-game adjustments by Kevin will lend itself to a collective focus on defense. I'm excited by the prospect of some risky small-ball with Ty, Pat and Marcus, too. We have a strong,albeit odd, unique lineup possibilities.

    Can someone call Dream or Camby out of retirement for some extra juice? Kthanks;)


    Sorry for the long post. I love talking defense.

    4Four,
    Cod
     
  12. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    Yeah I like that... more easy buckets, less opponent points off transition.
     
  13. RocketsJumer

    RocketsJumer Member

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    They should be a top 5 offensive team this season, no question.

    The question is if they can keep a top 5-10 defense.
     
  14. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I think they can. They made big strides last year in that department.

    And it didn't seem to matter who was playing. Even through all the injuries, they maintained a top 10 defense.

    That's good news for this upcoming season.
     
  15. htownballa1622

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    I don't post often but is this a reference to Love?

    Kevin Love in December?
     
  16. Garner

    Garner Member

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    You know what inspires defense?

    When a team of guys truly believes they have a shot at the title.
     
  17. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member

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    Yao was a great defender, so not sure about that.

    DD
     
  18. Codman

    Codman Contributing Member

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    I like that mindset,Garner. Good point. Even "my" players require that belief, or buy-in, to greatness and the potential to win it all.

    With our Rox, I think this team believes they have a great chance to destroy the competition.

    It seems like it has taken a long time, but Morey has been very calculated in building this group. Shoot, keeping Jet may be one of the more underrated signings in all of the league. An aging guard that can still score and lead by example. Those players are hard to find and keep happy, but DM has created an environment with his players and coaches which embraces all levels of experience.

    I'm glad that he's kept the core together for the most part, instead of previous years and a former GM that destroyed chemistry.

    The Spurs are a great example of embracing the journey of ups and downs with an invested group of vets and young bloods, with the expectation that early failures will eventually lead to championship contention years down the road.

    There are a few guys I wish DM kept, but overall, the progression of this roster over the last few seasons seems to follow a smart methodology of building from the ground up, finding the final puzzle pieces and surviving adversity during those tough,unforgettable defeats.

    After the post-season losses to OKC and Portland (painful, still), DM kept the important pieces together and allowed addition through subtraction.

    We are 100 times better without Jeremy Lin and with Patrick Beverly instead, AND, as much as I was a fan of his skill set, Ariza's second stint with us has shown that his value to the team greatly exceeds what a broken Chandelier ;) would have given us at 16 millie a year.

    I'm grateful that, come playoff time, my fellow Rockets family won't have to worry about one player going through some temporary insanity and single-handedly losing two games with an ill-advised turnover and a missed layup, when there wasn't a need to even shoot the ball. (SorryNotSorry---I'm still bitter. Thank you, Mitch, for the rebirth of our PG spot and the spring cleaning of this beautiful bbs)
     
  19. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    Dwight's better.
     
  20. CXbby

    CXbby Contributing Member

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    Ty's offensive rating last year is from playing with Denver's starting lineup, it is not an apples to apples comparison to him leading our bench. However, what we do know with certainty is that he is a plus offensive player, so it should be a boost for those 11 minutes that Harden is off the court. The question is how much.

    Also, in the minutes playing next to Harden there should be some synergy making the overall offensive quality go up even if their individual quantity goes down. This should also help with their defensive energy.
     
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