Awesome work. If you count Verlander, Cole, Miley and Peacock as the four main starters from the beginning (which in reality is more the effective truth because the #5 starter replaced McHugh, not Peacock)... wow, that ERA gets even worse when you work in McHugh. That ERA is 5.66 only because the FO didn't realize Peacock effectively was the #4 starter all along, not the #5.
Given his 2.31 ERA since June 6, subtracting the Rockies fluke, I would love to see the Astros stick to their original offseason plan for James to start. Stretching him out via this tandem system seems more ideal than doing so in AAA. His potential as a starter is much more valuable at this point than as a reliever, and it's also significantly easier to develop and or trade for a reliever than a starter. It would also give us that much more leverage in trade talks if we weren't so ungodly desperate right now.
James has real game-to-game control issues, and even when he's at his sure-fire best, I would have concerns about how his stuff plays when a batter is coming up for the 2nd or 3rd time to face him. But, if some of his game-to-game control issues are due to arm fatigue (which all bullpen guys seem to have at one point or another), making him a starter does allow him to develop more of a routine conducive to mitigating that. He looked electric in his first appearance out of the all star break, with a fully rested arm.
I’d be totally ok with a James/Framber tandem as the 5th starter. Even after they add somebody via trade, putting Peacock in tandem with James makes a lot of sense: -Keeps both guys stretched out without having to demote James to the minors -Limits innings for both guys -Preserves insurance against further injuries in the rotation -Gets both guys exposure to pitching in the role they will likely fill in the playoffs
I highly doubt they use a true tandem system like they've been featuring in the minors. Maybe an opener... but you still have to rely on one guy who will get the bulk of work. Also, James is still one of Hinch's plus guys in the bullpen, right behind Harris. One of Devenski/McHugh/Rondon would be called upon to pick up the slack, and Hinch doesn't seem enamored by any of them for high leverage situations (including Colin). Joe Smith being back helps though.
I would advocate just for a tandem system to stretch James out as a starter. He was regarded as a starter last year, regarded as a starter all off season, and spring training, and the Astros badly need a starter. I just think the FO/Hinch may be overthinking it if they don't want to see if James does well as a starter. He may simply not have the reliever mindset. Would be nice to find out. The sad thing is, all our starters are giving up runs in the first inning, so if James does the same thing tonight, he won't have a chance to make up for it, and there goes the experiment.
But the flip-side is that his stuff, when on, is far more effective over a short-burst 1-2 inning stint vs. trying to go 5-6 innings. He doesn't really have a truly unhittable pitch. His fastball is dynamite, but it can be hit hard if he's not locating. Slider varies between being peak Giles/Lidge lights out version vs. something of a cement mixer saying "please hit me" (or he just has no command and its a wild pitch). The changeup has shown some promise... I'd think he would throw it more if he had more confidence in the pitch. If there's anybody who he could pick their brain on, it would be JV... as he's got the similar arsenal, minus JV has a curveball.
Here’s the stat I was looking for on the starters outside JV, GC, WM and BC, from The Athletic: “The team’s other four starters have combined for a 6.88 ERA in 20 starts, averaged fewer than five innings per outing.” That’s pretty terrible.
I did the math, and assuming I did it correctly, between McHugh, Valdez (+ James 1 inning), Martin and Urquidy, our rotation stats outside of Verlander, Cole, Miley, Peacock are: 7.00 ERA 4.15 IP/start W-L 5-9 22 starts 91.33 IP 104 H 22 HR 40 BB 94 SO 1.58 WHIP ERA/WHIP McHugh 6.59 1.22 Valdez 8.25 1.83 Martin 5.59 1.81 Urquidy 10.50 2.50 To think, a quad injury in spring training cost James a chance to start. I can't imagine he'd have done worse than a 7.00 ERA. 4.15 IP/start over 22 starts, and there's no sign of stretching him out. That's probably my biggest pet peeve this season. The FO is now probably going to give up key parts of the farm to make up for these stats.
Seems like we are going to be forced to make two moves with one of those being Tucker due to the mishandling (cheap?) of the pitching staff before the season. That or we are going to go into the postseason (hopefully) as significant underdogs. I knew moving Peacock and McHugh back into the starting rotation was going to be a problem. This year was lining up so well, too.
Pretty crazy that not one of these guys was able to secure the SP5: McHugh Whitley Martin C Perez Valdez Armenteros Rodgers That’s the opening day guy (McHugh) and SIX young arms with varying upside who were in the opening day AAA rotation. Then you had Urquidy who broke out in the minors and couldn’t carry it over to the majors. I’m not sure why they didn’t just name Sneed the starter since he performed fairly well in his 2 long relief appearances.
I made a similar point in the Angels thread. IF we flounder in the playoffs and exit early, the complete drying up of our minor league pitching pipeline will be looked at as one of the main causes.
As it stands, I’m sure there are 2 moves Luhnow wouldn’t mind having back: 1. Signing Brantley instead of Morton, when he had Tucker waiting for a spot. 2. Trading Thornton for Diaz.
Agree on the command. James's stuff is electric. James's slider has been hit twice in the last 3 months after giving 3 hits in first 2 weeks of the season off the slider. He's 12th best in opposing BA. It doesn't take many hits to add runs though with as many walks as he gives up.
If they are just needing to find guys to eat some innings for a month or two, why not look at unsigned free agents that might be cheap and not require trading assets? Guys like James Shields or other dustbin SPs. You can run them into the ground as inning eaters for a half season.
The # 3-5 starters make ~roughly 60% of the regular season starts; that's not the case in the postseason. No team with Verlander/Cole potentially starting ~65% of the postseason games is going to be an underdog, let alone a significant one - *especially* with this (healthy) line-up. (Also, Wade Miley has now been pretty doggone good over his last 35 starts; he might not be the best pitcher on the mound in any given playoff match-up - but he should be competent enough.) The Astros' big concern, right now, is not exhausting their bullpen to compensate for their starters hitting a rough patch. They definitely need, at the very least, some innings eaters. But come October, starting pitching-wise, they'll be OK.
Times like these really make you appreciate Mike Fiers. I'll never forget the service he did us in the summer of '17.
There is no way Lunhow regrets signing Michael Brantley. He’s been the most consistent hitter in the Astros’ lineup and added a dimension they sorely needed (elite contact skills).
This thread has gotten weird. Despite his injury, I've liked Diaz a lot. I can't wait to have him back to stabilize the IF. The horrible play by Astros replacement starters doesn't make me want Thornton over Diaz considering I expect Astros add a SP at the deadline. Minor league pitching performance in the first half of the year is being predicted as a possible main reason if the Astros have an early exit in the playoffs. I'm firmly a believer that the burden for success/failure in playoffs likely rests with JV/Cole/Springer/Bregman/Altuve/Brantley/Alvarez/Correa/Pressly/Osuna and their counterparts on the opposing team. Astros are 2 weeks away from trade deadline and still on pace for 100 wins.
Very true. At this point we just need a 5th starter with a ~4.50ish ERA that can eat innings. Doesn't even need to be on our playoff roster.
