Sources: Morey has been trying to get Rondo/Rubio this month

I am aware. This is the first time I have seen his shot look somewhat fluid after an off season working on it.

 

We all know that Morey went after Rondo hard last year. With the roster changes, it doesn't shock me that he's going hard after Rubio/Rondo. Some people have suggested that we try to trade for an upgrade at the PF slot rather than an upgrade at the PG. I believe that bringing in a top notch PG has more of an impact due to the fact that it increases ball movement and allows Harden to expend less energy on the offensive end.

Roster changes:
Subtract Parsons, Add Ariza: From an offensive standpoint, you lose some ability to beat a man 1 on 1. Parsons' pump fake was effective enough to get by his man on a consistent basis. Ariza is much more turnover prone when he's handling the ball trying to beat his man. While Parsons hit a ton of 3 pointers, Ariza is ELITE in this area. See the heat charts below for proof.

Ariza 2013-2014 Heat Map
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/arizatr01/shooting/2014/

Parsons 2013-2014 Heat Map
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parsoch01/shooting/2014/

Parsons overall 3 point totals last year: 130 3PT Makes, 351 3PT Attempts for 37%

Ariza overall 3 point totals last year: 180 3PT Makes, 442 3PT Attempts for 40.7%

One could make the argument that a combo type PG is better next to a ball dominant Harden. Beverley fits the mold here with adequate handles, an improving 3 point shot, and tough defense. Some have even argued here that Beverley is better than Rubio. I love Beverely, he's my fiancé's favorite player... but take off the homer glasses please.

Morey sees something else. You can bring in a pass first point guard, with questionable shooting, and increase the team's probability of success.

1. Harden doesn't have to expend too much energy on the offensive end, thus increasing his defensive efficiency.
2. Your point guard is going to be better at hitting the spot up shooters. When you have shooters like Harden, Ariza, Daniels and Terry, you need a guy that is actively looking to distribute. The John Wall/Ariza combo last year led the league in assist:corner 3 ratio. We all know Morey prioritizes the corner 3.
3. Beverley isn't making guys work on the defensive end. This is a big reason why Portland was successful against us. Lillard has deficiencies on defense and wasn't exploited by us. Tony Parker absolutely destroyed the Blazers. He had games of 33 points/9 assists, 16 points/10 assists, 29 points/6 assists against them. Scroll down on this link to see how Lillard's efficiency dropped against SA http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01/gamelog/2014/
4. Rondo(+3.4 in his last full season) and Rubio (+3.6) have higher defensive win shares than Bev (+1.6). That Rubio number really stands out to me.

 

Because, you know, we don't have enough finishers already. We're weak in that department..........right? And Rubio takes so many shots down there just wasting possessions....right?


We were #7 in the league in finishing last season.


But we were basically dead last in steals and worst in turnovers. And significantly below average in assists. That's a lot of one-on-one basketball by Harden and a lot of contested shots. Rubio solves those problems.



Now.......

which one of those point guards has a higher (Assist + Steals)/Turnover ratio than Rubio???????????????

 

lol

He is not worth the money he wants and it would be ludicrous to lock our cap down for him.

Still too simplistic?

 

Well, win shares are based off minutes played. Beverley played about 2/3 of the minutes that Rubio did. If you adjust Rubio's win shares to the same amount of minutes as Pat, his offensive is +1.5 and his defensive is +2.4 for a total of +3.9. Beverley's offensive is +2.7 and his defensive is +1.6 for a total of +4.2.

 

Did you watch the Wolves last season? Do you have any idea what happened with them, what their offensive issues were?


The reason why Rubio has such a low shooting percentage is he has been stuck on one of the absolute WORST 3-point shooting teams in the whole league for 3 years running. Despite Love (and now Martin) Minny has ranked at the bottom of the league in 3-point shooting. And no, it's not Rubio's horrible 3-point shooting that is the cause of that. If you remove all Rubio's 3-point attempts, Minnesota was still terrible, at the bottom of the league in shooting the 3-ball. And you know that Rubio was the guy that was creating those shots, not the guy shooting them or spacing the floor. He was the guy with the basketball in his hands. When that is the case, opponents crowd the paint on the handler, not allowing him to get off very many good looks inside. It is the compound effect of being willing to let the jump shooters shoot it and only worrying about covering Love out there or Martin when he was on the floor and thus collapsing in the paint.

Put CP3 on last year's TWolves and his finishing percentage would drop to around 55%.



Oh....did I mention....Rubio takes the least amount of shots of any starter in the league in the paint.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

This is incorrect. Minutes played is already built in:

A. 1973-74 to present NBA

Crediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver's book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James in 2008-09 as an example):

Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.

Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.

Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.

Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.

 

For his career? Patrick Beverley.

 

Close...but not quite. And that's with Bev not really being a playmaker too.

 

Beverley Career:
Reg Season(268+114)/110
Playoffs (28+10)/10
Score: 3.5

Rondo Career:
Reg Season(4237+953)/1413
Playoffs (845+191)/262
Score: 3.71

Rubio Career:
Reg Season(1458+419)/524
Playoffs: None
Score: 3.58

Rondo > Rubio > Beverley

 

You're right, I calculated off of averages initially instead of totals.

 

For the last time Steals /= good defense.

Case in point.... Go watch tape from last year, check the stats, and see the field day Pat Beverley had on offense vs. Rubio.

Last thing the Rockets need in the perimeter is another guy floating around in the passing lanes instead of staying solid, helping the helper, and contributing on the boards.

In the West you are playing guys like Curry, CP3, Parker, Westbrook, Dragic, etc. on a nightly basis. Does anyone here really think its a great idea to add a perimeter defender who plays the passing lanes more, or a guy who stays solid and guards his man at 94 feet???? Just curious how everyone here seems to think Rubio is some assassin on defense. Are you sure you are watching the same player I am???

 

You know, Barnes said Elias was a crusader.

 

I Never said he wasnt unknown, just that people shouldnt act like Rubio is some scrub, especially if you barely watch him.

 

fixed

 

LOL

I have to laugh at the exaggerations. I don't know of a single poster who has said that Rubio will solve all the problems the Rockets have and make them contenders overnight. Such gross, misdirected exaggerations.

 

If healthy.... Rondo is VERY MUCH a star!!!

 

was never much of a rondo fan but yes if hes healthy, rondo is a huge difference maker

 

lol

Rondo is the only max guard they can get and possibly still have flexibility. If for some reason he can't fit in with Harden and Howard we could trade him easily to teams and even get something nice in return. The gamble with Rondo is if he is healthy enough. Rubio kills your flexibility because he will never improve offensively enough to be worth the max.

 

The reason we should want Rubio over Rondo is because he won't lock our cap down.

Yes, still too simplistic.