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Sources: Expect the NBA back playing by mid/late June with 10 reg season games before POs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by cyberx, May 5, 2020.

  1. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton

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    Late to the party, but OP, I really appreciate you putting "and then POS" in the title.
     
  2. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    There are many different ways people respond to and deal with grief.
     
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  4. John Harvey

    John Harvey Member

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    very true
     
  5. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    This isn't only a die/not die kind of thing. The number of younger folks getting COVID-19 is not inconsequential and neither is the percentage who end up in the hospital, even if most don't die.

    We have too many unknowns right now to do stuff like team sports:

    1. We don't know with confidence all the ways it can be transmitted and how efficient those means are. Droplets are the big ones for sure, but what about aerosols and surfaces? We just don't know with any certainty.
    2. The death rate is not nailed down. It's obviously higher than the flu, maybe 4x as much, but we don't know where that final number will land and it will likely be different for different places and societal practices.
    3. We don't know the why and how of all the symptoms. From clotting and neurological problems to lung fibrosis in previously healthy adults and the crippling multi-inflammations in young children.
    4. We don't know what the long-term effects might be for folks deemed fully recovered.
    5. We can't predict how long it will take a person who shows symptoms to reach full recovery. Some folks are going multiple weeks with low oxygen, fatigue, and other symptoms.
    6. We don't know much about post-disease immunity. How long does it last? Is it like the flu or chicken pox?
    7. Info on therapeutics is sketchy. Remdesivir may shorten hospital stays, but beyond that and the fact that and the fact that Hydroxycholoroquine improves chances of death, we're still waiting on a bunch of studies from around the world.
    8. We don't know with certainty how long people are infectious.
    9. We don't much about asymptomatic spread or what may make a "super spreader."
    10. We don't know all the ways COVID-19 might affect a pregnancy.
    11. We don't know exactly why younger age infection rates are higher in Latin America than anywhere else on the planet.
    12. We don't know how this virus will change over the coming months and years.
    13. Related, we don't have a good understanding of seasonality or lack thereof.
    14. We don't know very much about how it affects school age kids. Are they asymptomatic or do they not get it in great numbers? Can they spread it?
    15. We don't know precisely how prevalent outdoor transmissions are, though we know it is less risky than being inside.

    There's more, I'm sure. The point is, in the face of a new--novel--virus, the uncertainty is immense and it is best to err on the side of caution. I want basketball back as much as anyone, but it's stupid to put so much energy into trying to figure out the impossible right now. Start planning for a delayed start to the 2020-2021 season and we'll be lucky to get that. Until then, distance, wear a mask, and wash your hands.
     
  6. SuperKev

    SuperKev Contributing Member

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    Doesn't look like they will let fans into the ESPN WWOS where the season will likely resume. I live right down the street from the WWOS in orlando, it's nice and I've attended lots of sporting events there.

    It is indeed an ideal spot for the season to resume because it is located in the most isolated area of the Disney property and you can't directly walk or drive there. It has large amounts of parking and lots of space.

    For those who haven't visited that facility its a very large area and hosts all sorts of big school tournaments like volleyball, baseball, basketball, soccer etc.. Sometimes they have multiple big tournaments at the same time.

    If it's allowed I'll definitely go and report what happens here.
     
    D-rock likes this.
  7. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    The point is, we also don't have any real idea as to when we're going to know the answers to many of those questions. You mentioned not knowing how the virus might change over the coming "years." Some of us aren't willing to halt normal life for potentially years over hypotheticals.

    If some players don't want to play, they won't play, and everyone should respect their decisions. It's a personal risk-reward calculation for all of us, at any of our jobs that can’t be done fully remotely. However, outright telling people they can't perform their jobs for years and can't earn a salary — even if they're willing to do it in a bubble-type environment, while largely sealing off the general public and risk of outside spread — is rather excessive, IMO.

    As you indicated, we would be lucky to resolve even a few of these issues by 2020-21. That's why many colleges are looking at starting on time or even earlier in August for the fall 2020 semester, and entirely wrapping up by Thanksgiving. They're trying to mitigate it as best they can with the information we have now.

    Do we have all the info? Of course not. But there's a certain amount of time where for some of us, it's simply not worth what we're giving up. It may be stupid by how you look at it, and that's fine. But before you make any sweeping mandate for society at large, everyone should get to have a say. We'll see what the players want to do in the next week or two.
     
    #487 The Cat, May 25, 2020
    Last edited: May 25, 2020
  8. JumpMan

    JumpMan Contributing Member
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    They could be talking to the Bundesliga. La Liga is also set to opening back up soon. European soccer leagues were all interrupted at around the same point of the season. Gonna read about how they are working through this.
     
  9. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    I think one of the biggest "don't know" for team sports is how accurate the testing is, and how long does person gets infected and becomes a spreader before the person shows positive in a test. I heard reports say that as much as 20% false negative occurs in the first day of infection. If one of the players gets infected. There is a chance that it may not be detected before he suits up to play. And if he plays, there is a good chance that he will infect multiple players on both teams consider the nature of the game of basketball.

    Of course, if every person is tested and quarantined for a few days and then gets tested again, the chances of someone unknowingly being positive are quite low. But you need to make sure that they are really isolated throughout the playing period, which is quite long.
     
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  10. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    good luck with that, you may as well spend the rest of your life at your house cause you will never really really know whats waiting you outside
     
  11. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    So anyone else thinking a single site is asking for the disease to pop up and spread? Will fans be allowed?
     
  12. ktex

    ktex Member

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    Late July is just ridiculous. One month from now is sufficient. Let's go.
     
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  13. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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  14. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    It's not about the individual. It's about the society. I don't have any fear going out. But I don't want to be a virus spreader that can kill some other people.

    It's like driving. There's always a risk. But if you drive recklessly, it's no longer about whether you are afraid to die. It's also about whether you are endangering other people's lives. If a large number of people drive recklessly defying any traffic rules, the whole society is endangered, even for those who don't drive, because the hospitals are going to be overrun with injured people from car wrecks.
     
  15. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    How do you feel about these other scenarios where it's not the regular East/West 1-8 (re-seeding 1-16 or this 'group stage' or whatever other scenarios they're considering)

    NBA Considering 20-Team Group Stage To Resume Season Instead Of Traditional First Round


    The NBA is considering a group stage with the resumption of the season as Adam Silver will have the opportunity to potentially test one of his more innovative changes during this unique period. This format would replace the traditional first round and determine the final eight remaining teams.

    The 16 current playoff teams would quality for the group state along with the four teams with the next-best records, which include the Portland Trial Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs. The remaining 10 teams would be done for the season.

    The 20 teams would be allocated into five tiers in descending order by record.

    Tier 1: Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers
    Tier 2: Celtics, Nuggets, Jazz, Heat
    Tier 3: Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, Sixers
    Tier 4: Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nets, Magic
    Tier 5: Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs

    Groups would then be randomly drawn with one team from each tier. Teams from each group would play opponents within their own group twice, giving each team eight games. The two teams from each group with the best record would move on.

    Sources say the NBA has also considered allowing Tier 1 teams to draft their own groups.

    Eastern Conference teams have already pushed back at the league for the group stage suggestion, according to sources.
     
    joshuaao likes this.
  17. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    the cdc released an estimated death rate of 0.4% for people w/ symptoms. meaning a 0.2% overall death rate if we assume half the cases show no symptoms. i'm not worried about nba players. even a guy like pringles may be up there in age, but unless he has some existing condition he doesn't seem to be at risk

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
     
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  18. PhiSlammaJamma

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    That is like when someone offers you tear gas flavored ice cream. You go the other way.
     
  19. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    That is basically the World Cup alternative I posted a few pages back but with 20 teams instead of 30. I'm totally on board with that.

    https://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.ph...games-before-pos.304972/page-22#post-12959590
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    What's the rate of permanent lung damage?

    What's the rate of kidney damage?

    What's the rate of strokes & blood clots?

    What's the rate of (unnamed mysterious childhood respiratory disease)

    Answer - unknown - but all way greater than normal - and it's not just "the olds'

    But,meh, that's all right, @pippendagimp ain't worried abut NBA players health, he's done the math, so they need to get out there and start ballin', MAGA 2020.
     
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