Mike Zarren, assistant GM of the Boston Celtics, said during the basketball analytics panel this year that "player ratings" isn't something they pay a whole lot of attention to. There's a good reason for that. A lot of things go into whether a player is really helping his team win or lose, and its typically not something that can be easily boiled down to a single number. Nevertheless, I thought it would be fun to look at some of our player's statistical ratings through the trade deadline. There are different ways to do it, and if people want to chime in with their own favorite stats (or non-stats if you just want to offer a subjective perspective) feel free. I'll start the discussion by looking at two player ratings stats which I find interesting -- adjusted statistical plus/minus (ASPM) and regularized adjusted plus/minus (RAPM). For more about how these stats work, see this excellent overview. Briefly, ASPM is a boxscore statistic (like, for example, PER), but it is specifically formulated to be a good predictor for adjusted +/- (in this case, RAPM). The formula was derived by Daniel M, and you can see the details here. RAPM is a stat that attempts to determine a player's +/- impact based on how the team performs with him on the floor, taking into account the 9 other players also on the court. I got the RAPM stats from here. Below, I show the stats this season for all the Rockets players who've played at least 400 minutes, plus the top 25 NBA players in total minutes played. While that pool of NBA players will naturally skew towards the stars, I thought it would still be interesting to see how our guys stack up against them. The ratings, of course, weight every minute of NBA action equally (so, Dragic isn't getting extra credit for what he's shown as a starter, though one can argue he should). In the final columns, I average the ASPM and RAPM ratings to create (hopefully) more accurate composite ratings. Code: [SIZE="1"][B] BOXSCORE Adjusted +/- Tm Player MP OASPM DASPM ORAPM DRAPM OFF-comp DEF-comp OVRL-comp[/B] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MIA LeBron James 1541 +7.8 +1.8 +3.0 +0.6 +5.4 +1.2 +6.6 ORL Dwight Howard 1696 +1.6 +3.6 +2.0 +1.3 +1.8 +2.4 +4.2 MEM Marc Gasol 1561 +1.1 +1.7 +2.7 +1.7 +1.9 +1.7 +3.6 LAL Kobe Bryant 1670 +4.6 +0.7 +1.6 +0.3 +3.1 +0.5 +3.6 OKC Kevin Durant 1635 +4.7 +1.1 +1.2 -0.5 +2.9 +0.3 +3.2 POR LaMarcus Aldridge 1466 +3.1 +0.1 +2.0 +0.9 +2.5 +0.5 +3.0 MEM Mike Conley 1415 +1.3 +1.4 +2.7 +0.7 +2.0 +1.1 +3.0 PHI Andre Iguodala 1521 +0.8 +2.2 +1.2 +1.7 +1.0 +1.9 +3.0 OKC Russell Westbrook 1515 +4.2 +0.2 +1.7 -0.3 +2.9 -0.0 +2.9 ATL Josh Smith 1536 +0.5 +3.1 +1.3 +0.8 +0.9 +1.9 +2.9 MIN Kevin Love 1593 +3.6 +0.3 +2.1 -0.4 +2.8 -0.0 +2.8 LAC Blake Griffin 1535 +2.9 -0.1 +2.6 -0.1 +2.8 -0.1 +2.7 [COLOR="Red"][B]HOU Kyle Lowry 1347 +2.2 +0.7 +1.5 +0.4 +1.8 +0.6 +2.4[/B][/COLOR] LAL Andrew Bynum 1407 +1.3 +1.9 +1.1 +0.3 +1.2 +1.1 +2.3 POR Gerald Wallace 1503 +0.4 +0.7 +1.7 +1.5 +1.0 +1.1 +2.1 PHI Jrue Holiday 1489 -0.4 +1.1 +1.5 +1.4 +0.5 +1.3 +1.8 LAL Pau Gasol 1608 +1.3 +1.1 +0.4 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +1.5 PHO Marcin Gortat 1424 +1.7 +0.8 +0.2 -0.1 +0.9 +0.3 +1.3 NJN Deron Williams 1456 +5.0 -1.5 -0.1 -0.9 +2.4 -1.2 +1.2 [COLOR="Red"][B]HOU Samuel Dalembert 1090 -0.5 +1.8 +0.5 +0.1 -0.0 +1.0 +1.0[/B][/COLOR] NJN Kris Humphries 1430 +0.1 -0.3 +1.4 +0.0 +0.8 -0.1 +0.6 [COLOR="Red"][B]HOU Chase Budinger 703 +0.8 -0.9 +0.9 +0.1 +0.9 -0.4 +0.5[/B][/COLOR] MEM Rudy Gay 1508 +0.2 +1.0 +0.0 -0.6 +0.1 +0.2 +0.3 [COLOR="Red"][B]HOU Chandler Parsons 1150 -0.0 +0.4 +0.3 -0.2 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2 HOU Courtney Lee 943 +0.3 -0.4 +0.3 +0.0 +0.3 -0.2 +0.1 HOU Marcus Camby 894 -2.3 +2.6 +0.1 -0.6 -1.1 +1.0 -0.1 HOU Goran Dragic 941 +0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4[/B][/COLOR] MIL Brandon Jennings 1528 +2.8 -0.5 -1.6 -1.8 +0.6 -1.1 -0.5 [COLOR="Red"][B]HOU Kevin Martin 1264 +2.0 -1.4 -0.7 -1.3 +0.6 -1.3 -0.7 HOU Luis Scola 1362 -0.3 -1.2 -0.2 +0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 HOU Patrick Patterson 938 -0.9 -0.8 +0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0[/B] GSW David Lee 1428 +1.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.8 +0.2 -1.3 -1.1 [B]HOU Jordan Hill 469 -1.0 +0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.3 -1.4[/B][/COLOR] TOR DeMar DeRozan 1507 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.5 WAS John Wall 1556 +1.7 -0.9 -1.9 -2.5 -0.1 -1.7 -1.8 SAC Tyreke Evans 1521 +1.1 -1.0 -1.9 -2.2 -0.4 -1.6 -2.0 [/SIZE] Here's a chart. The higher the player is, the better their composite defensive rating. The more to the right the player is, the better their composite offensive rating. I did shift the names slightly in some cases to make it more readable (the marker underneath each name represents their ratings).
Someone needs to send out a search party to find Kevin Martin. Being out there all alone could be dangerous
...+1 Great work!!! I would slightly disagree though, simply off the basis of the chart alone. It easily depicts the "value" of a player in relation to his effectiveness. Should it be a variable that is the primary reasoning on going after a player or staying away, no. However in relation to spot in rotation & understanding who this player is competing against on a nightly basis can give you some insight on potential success. For instance I'll take our rookie Parsons. Defensively he is on par with two players at his position; Durant & Gay. According to the diagram he is just as adequate as Gay offensively as well. Now Gay does have a solid big man who is superb offensively diverting away from his attempts but that ultimately makes him more effective. Putting it into perspective they are similar players talent & skill set wise, the major difference b/t the two overall experience. The diagram only depicts two players at the SF position better than Parsons defensively but one is within the same realm offensively that is Iguodala. From this diagram their are two players at the SF position we would want to replace Parsons with what we have seen from him thus far(must be factored in b/c it is limited to a degree, minutes wise no, game planning from opposition to exploit yes) Those players are LeBron & Durant both who happen to be superstars. No, PER shouldn't be the only consideration on taking a chance on a player. However it should be a significant consideration. Great thread though durvasa. Thoroughly enjoyed it.
