Some Free Agency Scenarios, Illustrated with Tables

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, May 2, 2012.

  1. Dark_Tower

    Dark_Tower Contributing Member

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    That might do it - but b/c they probably aren't going to get Howard, Lopez becomes a higher value asset. At this point, it's going to come down to just how much the Nets value Brook Lopez, and after the Dwight debacle, it's hard to say what value they've placed on him.
     
  2. Deckard

    Deckard Contributing Member

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    I've never been bowled over by Lopez. For a guy his size, he should be a better rebounder, and I've never been that impressed by his defense, although he is a shot blocker. What Lopez has going for him is that he's 7 feet, has a pretty good offensive game, and is only 23. So he has room to improve. This past season has essentially been a waste for him because of injury, but I'm assuming he's recovered by now. He's also restricted.
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    A few response to some of the thoughts posted in here:

    1. Regarding Lopez: Not sure if he's the answer talent-wise. Besides, I'm pretty sure the Nets will have to match any non-stupid contract on the guy. I don't think I'd throw close to the max on him ($12-14.5 million). Something significantly less (like $8-10 million) then we'll probably have an automatic match. After all, DeAndre Jordan got 4 years $43 million and the Clippers matched it.

    1. Regarding Asik: I get the point about him not being "proven" in big minutes and that almost $10 mil a year on the guy is a risk. On the other hand, if he just keeps up his current level of play (elite rebounder and defender) and do it in, say, 25 mpg, $9-10 million probably looks more than fair. Again, I'd compare this situation to DeAndre Jordan, who was a "no brainer match" at $10.75 mil/year for the Clippers last season. Jordan is a better finisher around the rim, but is not nearly as good a defender in my opinion. If Osik does what he does now for 35 mpg, he's be an absolute bargain at that price.

    That said, the $9.974 million scenario was just the "ceiling" of what an outside team can pay Asik. Perhaps a lower offer will get it done, so here is what the team can do if they are to offer him $8.16 mil a year (i.e. their available cap room without making any significant moves):

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    <table class="tableizer-table">
    <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> Waived </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,010,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>SUM</td><td>Average</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik </td><td>RFA-Cap Hit</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $32,661,312 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>RFA-Actual</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,000,000 </td><td> $5,225,000 </td><td> $10,971,302 </td><td> $11,465,010 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick </td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>Add Lee/Dragic</td><td> $59,336,862 </td><td> $58,040,000 </td><td> $36,521,021 </td><td> $24,471,125 </td><td> $16,148,014 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>15</td><td>14</td><td>10</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $(1,296,862)</td><td> $- </td><td> $21,518,979 </td><td> $33,568,875 </td><td> $41,891,986 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td></td></tr></table>

    3. Also about Asik: I decided to look at the Chicago Bulls cap situation in a little more detail. Aside from Asik being a free agent, several of their players are on non-guaranteed contracts next season: Korver ($500K guaranteed), Watson and Brewer. If they bring all 3 of them back and match an outside max offer to Asik, below is what their salary picture looks like.

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    <table class="tableizer-table">
    <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr> <tr><td> Name </td><td> Notes </td><td> 2011-12 </td><td> 2012-13 </td><td> 2013-14 </td><td>2014-15</td><td>2015-16</td><td>2016/2017</td></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td>$15,000,000 </td><td>$15,300,000 </td><td>$16,800,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td>$4,370,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td>$3,200,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Matching Offer</td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,225,000.000 </td><td> $14,510,000 </td><td> $15,162,950 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td>$14,510,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$81,907,063 </td><td>$69,757,229 </td><td>$64,472,295 </td><td>$64,091,835 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>12</td><td>8</td><td>6</td><td>5</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>($23,867,063)</td><td>($11,717,229)</td><td>($6,432,295)</td><td>($6,051,835)</td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

    It should be noted that, under NBA Rules, Asik's cap impact for the Bulls will be $5,000,000, and $5.225 mil for the next 2 years rather than the average salary for the life of the contract as long as the outside offer is more than the MLE. So, the math for the next 2 seasons would be the same whether they match a $9.974 mil/year offer or a $8.16 mi/year offer or even a $7 mil/year offer.

    In any case, the Bulls would be well over any likely tax threshold (currently $70.3 mil) no matter what.


    Here's what happens if they are to waive all 3 of Watson, Korver and Brewer:

    <style type="text/css">
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    <table class="tableizer-table">
    <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>2016/2017</th></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td>$15,000,000 </td><td>$15,300,000 </td><td>$16,800,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>Waived</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>Waived</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>Waived</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Matching Offer</td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,225,000.000 </td><td> $14,510,000 </td><td> $15,162,950 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td>$3,181,977 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$69,837,063 </td><td>$72,939,206 </td><td>$64,472,295 </td><td>$49,581,835 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>($11,797,063)</td><td>($14,899,206)</td><td>($6,432,295)</td><td>$8,458,165 </td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

    They'd still likely exceed the tax threshold if they match an Asik offer. The team salary would be at $69.8 million on just 9 players. And they's have to replace 3 rotation guys, including (1) their best shooter, and (2) their #2 PG when D. Rose will be working his way back from ACL surgery and Lucas is also hitting free agency.

    With the increased salary on their other players next season, their salary will also most likely exceed the tax threshhold.



    4. Of course, one thing the Bulls still have is the amnesty clause. The natural candidate for this, if there is one, is probably Boozer.

    Here's what it would look like if they get really aggressive on salary cutting and waive Korver, Watson and Brewer on top of amnestying Boozer.

    <style type="text/css">
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    <table class="tableizer-table">
    <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>2016/2017</th></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>Amnestied</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>Waived</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>Waived</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>Waived</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td> </td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td>$3,181,977 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$49,837,063 </td><td>$52,414,206 </td><td>$33,162,295 </td><td>$34,418,885 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>8</td><td>7</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>$8,202,937 </td><td>$5,625,794 </td><td>$24,877,705 </td><td>$23,621,115 </td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

    This most likely takes them below the tax level, but with a roster that cost almost $50 million on just 8 guys not accounting for Asik, they won't have any meaningful cap room and will have to replace all 4 of the guys they let go. They also most likely won't have any salary cap in the following year, either.

    And remember, just because you amnesty a guy and take him off your salary cap, you still have to pay him.

    In any case, there Bulls are not in a happy place salary wise and this is why a significant offer to Asik will force the Bulls to make some interesting choices.
     
    #43 Carl Herrera, May 4, 2012
    Last edited: May 4, 2012
  4. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    I think anything above an average offer of $7.5 would be tough to match for the Bulls from a team-building standpoint.

    The Arenas rule doesn't really do them a favor with the way Asik will count against the cap after the first two years.

    I mean are you really going to pay Noah and Asik a combined $22.5M+?
    Don't forget, Taj Gibson will become a RFA himself after next season. He'll get paid a good amount of money.
    Boozer is paid a lot. Deng is paid a lot. Rose just got his max deal.

    I think an offer that averages out to $8M/year gets it done. That is, if no other team will be willing to offer more for Asik's services, of course.
     
  5. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    Great work, Carl. Asik could be the next Gortat, who got a midlevel max contract, but is now well underpaid.
     
  6. ArtV

    ArtV Contributing Member

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    I agree that throwing a semi-reasonable amount toward Asik would cause the Bulls to have to make a choice...break the bank or make some cuts to keep him. Personally I think they will let him go and he is worth a semi-reasonable amount of risk.
     
  7. BimaThug

    BimaThug Contributing Member

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    Great job, CH!

    I actually have a "private" spreadsheet of my own that I go by, but I decided not to include it in my cap updates. The chance of trades changing the numbers was just too high to make it worth it IMO. Still, it's nice for people to be able to see everything laid out in front of them like that.

    I think the Rockets will make at least one or two trades on draft night and/or in early July, making all these numbers relatively moot. They could make moves to create more cap room; or they could make moves to shrink their cap room to the point where just re-signing their own guys and using their cap exceptions (MLE, BAE) might make the most sense. So many variables.

    I'll likely do another cap update after the draft during the July Moratorium that sets out more concrete avenues available to the Rockets. But even then, there's no accounting for whatever trades are out there in July, August and September.

    Regardless, this is great work by CH. A pleasant dose of reality and analysis amongst a sea of depression and hate on this BBS.
     
  8. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    BimaThug,

    First, thanks for the comments. Glad to see that my thinking and numbers are not way off-base from someone who knows.

    Second, regarding spreadsheets: I personally find them a good way to help a reader understand this kind of information but know how others may prefer the narrative form when reading or presenting info. Having studied and taught math before entering the legal field, I have mostly dealt with colleagues (and opposing counsel) who are more oriented toward the verbal/narrative form than toward the visual/numerical form. Just kind of interesting how it works.

    Third, I agree with you that there will likely be trades and moves to either increase or decrease total salary going into July. Just thought it's useful to point out where things stand now to illustrate the "opportunity cost" of making such moves. For example, if the Rockets want to have more than $8.16 million in cap space, they'll have to renounce their FAs and/or give up players or draft picks in order to get there.

    On the other hand, if they elect to take on significant salary in a trade, presumably for established talent or for a draft pick, they'll end up losing a chance of making the kind of free agency moves listed in the OP (and later posts by myself and others). For example, if the Rockets can get Dwight Howard, they would probably gladly say "screw it" to cap space. However, let say that Detroit offers the 9th pick if the Rockets would just take on Charlie Villanueva's contract (by trading Sammy D's expiring/partially guaranteed deal to them), I'd have to think about what FAs I might be losing out on pursuing when I make the deal.


    Anyhow, I am looking forward to the Rockets offseason moves and your upcoming updates in response to them.

    Edit: One more thing--- What to do with Marcus Camby (and to an certain extent Sam Dalembert) given the salary situation? If you want to bring Camby back, you'll have to either (a) give up on the dream of having cap space, (b) convince him to take the $2.5 million "room exception" or (c) clear some other salary off the books (by way of trades or by burning the amnesty clause) in order to retain him and have cap space. Kind of a similar decision on Dalembert: The cost of retaining him (though you don't need to sign him long term, just pick up the 1-year option) is either giving up on having cap room or having to burn other assets (trading away players/picks, using up the amnesty) in order to clear cap space elsewhere.
     
    #48 Carl Herrera, May 4, 2012
    Last edited: May 4, 2012
  9. t0mdotcom

    t0mdotcom Member

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    I would like the Rockets to go after a young center like Roy Hibbert. Might have to overpay a bit (i believe he is restricted), but this guy has gotten better every year. in 2012: 12.8 pts, 8.8 reb, and 2.0 blks.

    Secondly, resign Dragic and Lee, thus making Lowry and Martin expendable. Maybe we could swing a deal for a stud PF. Include Patterson, Lowry, Martin, and draft picks in the deal. Scola could then come off the bench, which might be better due to his age. Maybe we could pry Lamarcus Aldridge from Portland?
     
  10. RocketsMAN!

    RocketsMAN! Member

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    Here is the crop of Cs that I feel would be worth a look. If Asik is the medium of what the Rockets could sign, this is how I then see who is attainable in relation to Asik:

    Unattainable: Bynum, Hibbert, B.Lopez, McGee
    Omer Line.
    Attainable: Kaman, Camby, Hawes, R.Lopez, Wallace, Orton, Przybilla, Fesenko

    Within the Unattainable category, Bynum looks Untouchable, but Hibby, B.Lopez and McGee don't and their price tags are going to put the Rockets in a financial corner.
    With the Attainables, I see some good pieces that would be relatively cheap. I like Kaman to the Rockets, but not if it financially ties our hands behind our backs for the future - only on a good deal would I do it. Same with Camby. R. Lopez is Restricted, But he's a backup. He's going to get offered close to starters money because he's 7 ft. tall. Wallace is getting slower, and can't rely on height to block shots like a Camby or Kaman or Przybilla (who is 32 already).

    Orton and Fesenko are young'ns still, but I don't think Orton will even be reliable as 2nd string center. Fesenko on the other hand could present a good option at backup, and he's in the same age group as Asik and Hawes @ 25, but his utilization looks equal to Orton's.

    Hawes is intriguing to me. He's not primarily a post threat, but he rebounds and blocks shots and can score from the perimeter. The cap hold for Hawes is $8,102,048. Statistically, he played fewer minutes that Kaman, but put up almost identical numbers, and he's only 24.

    Asik (per 36): 12.9 RB/2.4BLKS/7.5PTS
    Hawes (per 36): 10.5RB/1.8BLKS/13.8PTS

    To me, Hawes looks better because he could avg. a double/double. But next to Scola/Motie, who aren't known for their defensive prowess, I would rather have Asik unless someone who was once unattainable becomes attainable in Houston's eyes.
     
  11. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    I suspect the first thing we do when free agency starts is to go after Lopez and try to sign him to an offer sheet, probably $40-45 million over 4 years and force the Nets to match or lose him.

    If they match, it really limits their trade flexibility.

    If they don't match, we get another young asset on a decent contact to add to our stash of assets.

    It's really a no-lose situation as long as Lopez checks out physically.
     
  12. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    Daryl?

    But seriously, if we can steal away a good young center, great. Obviously, as you mention, it comes down to his durability. His last season would have to be "one of those years" and not an Oden-esque sign.

    The way Lopez regressed on the boards in his 3rd year is a little concerning. I'd have to check; maybe that's when he was paired next to a Windex guy.

    I'd rather steal Gortat if the cost is palatable, and if Phoenix is going for tank mode, but our situation on bigs isn't the best, and Morey will likely have all lines in the water to see where he gets the nibble. So to speak.
     
  13. RocketsMAN!

    RocketsMAN! Member

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    He was playing with Kris Humphries, who was a rebounding magnet this season, so much so that he was a valuable pick in Fantasy Basketball.

    If B. Lopez finds a way to Houston, we will not be disappointed with his boards, that's a guarantee.

    He and Motie would make the Houston starting frontcourt something other NBA teams will worry about for years!
     
  14. dreamshake97

    dreamshake97 Member

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    Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee Bucks – $2.5 million – Unrestricted

    improved his career 9ppg and 6rpg to 13ppg and 8rpg this season… he is unrestricted and ONLY 24…

    6'10 PF.. i'd take him in a heart beat.. he is young, has great size and is nba tested with proof he has improved yearly..

    don't know what he will get, but u take him, and now u can move Scola in a possible draft day deal to move up in the draft..
     
  15. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    I hate you for reminding me that I'm depressed.
     
  16. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    I like Ilyasova, but I doubt he's actually 24. There were/are a lot of rumors about his age and nobody really knows how old he actually is.
    Few people (in Europe anyway) buy that he is 24, though.

    If you believe OHMSS -- and granted he's somewhat of a fishy source :)p) -- Ilyasova was was born in 1982.

    Putting the age aside, while I like Ilyasova, I don't see how he fits with this team. I mean, the last thing we need is another above average/'good' player. Much less another PF.
     
  17. dreamshake97

    dreamshake97 Member

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    That's why u move scola.. IF he is 24 he has better upside.. Plus he's 6'10 and scola is maybe 6'8..

    And that entire free agency list is good to above average players.. So anyone we sign in FA won't change our franchise. I was looking more at his age and the fact he has improved yearly.. But if he's older that would change my mind
     
  18. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Gortat isn't going anywhere. His contract is too good. Lopez is the cog we could possibly sign and also cause the Nets to either lose for nothing or have to pay and clog their cap for next season.
     
  19. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    To me, lopez size and skill level would make me overpay than to pay asik who brings 0 offensively. Gortat was at least skilled offensively. Jordan is a monster finishing. Lopez for 12m per makes a lot of sense. If they losewilliams and humpries,maybe the rockets can offer scola and lowry in a sign and trade for him. I worry a little about do nuts and lopez as a 4/5 comb, but its all about team rebounding anyway. Chandler is a good rebounder at the 3 and dragic is a good rebounder at the pg. They could be a good rebounding team without a guy getting more than 9 per game.
     
  20. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Camby, Lopez, Donuts and one other big like Patterson would be a significant upgrade in the paint over what we have now.
     

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