[Slate] Why hiring a new coach won't solve your NBA team's problems

I've always found this topic to be interesting......what do coaches at the pro level actually DO? Are they there for the X's and O's? Sure, after timeouts and things like that, they are....but you're telling me someone like Brent Barry or Shane Battier couldn't draw up a play after a timeout? I think it's more like an office psychologist. They have to balance out all of the different personalities on the team, and keep that chemistry together. On a veteran squad like the Rockets, it might not be as difficult of a job....especially when you have guys like Yao and T-Mac who seemingly are very easy to get along with. That's why a volatile personality like Artest can come in, and be very comfortable. If Artest had been traded to the Lakers instead, I'm not so sure things would have been so hunky-dorey, but that's where the prowess of Phil Jackson would come into play.

 

It is interesting that Isiah isn't on the negative list.

 

The article specifically says Isiah Thomas wasn't studied

 

The article comes to the false conclusion that coaches don't do anything. Actually, if it doesn't matter which coach teams have had, it means that most pro coaches are equal in ability. That's very different than saying they are worthless.

 

Every orchestra needs a conductor. Every team needs a coach.

 

What he said.

Yobod, I think most of the X's and O's come from the coach in practice, not in timeouts. Sure, he can draw up a play in a timeout, but building the whole set and setting the whole offensive and defensive philosophy of the team is done in practices and needs a leader.

 

Hire a new coach have less to do with one team,like us,hired Adelman last year,but we still hardly see his system--Princeton.This system ought to we move a lot and need players pass the ball frequently,then get the best postion to shot,with Yao in our team,he is big guy,he can't move frequent,for now we still keep the offenses Jeff VanGundy leaves.We want to change our type of offenses,but it is not so easy.Coach can tell players on the court how to execute strategies,but can not do it himself.

 

David Berri conducted this study. Enough said.

 

Nice find, Hayesfan. I've debated this topic with friends a number of times.

 

Been saying this for years. Good article.

 

One of my favorite thread topics ever posted. Awfully relevant right about now I think.

 

and are new coach will be 9/18 ;D

 

Fallacious reasoning.

The fact that he cites those great coaches from Jackson to Popovich shows that coaches do make an impact. There's just a difference between good and bad coaching. He should have studied how they created that winning atmosphere in the team.

Just study Tom Thibodeau's effect on the CHI Bulls this year.

 

I don't know if there's a good way to rate a coach's performance. I think you have to look at a range of different benchmarks, including feedback from the players and just how easy or difficult it is to work with them.

Could something like "adjusted +/-" make sense for coaches? If instead of modeling a basketball game as 5-on-5, we think of it as 6-on-6 where the "6th man" represents the coaching staff, then maybe that can give us some idea of the impact coaching has on team's performance. This would rely on players moving around from team-to-team to get a really good picture of it, so you'd need a decent sample of seasons.

Really, this wouldn't so much be measuring coaching directly, but rather what I think of as a "chemistry factor" for a team with a particular coaching staff. What a coach does might play a big role in that chemistry factor, but it could also be based on a particular mix of talent.

Here, someone posted a 5-year APM ranking including coaches. I extracted the coach rankings, and here they are:

Code:

Name                    OFF/100p   DEF/100P     NET/100p
Coach_TomThibodeau       0.4        3             3.4
Coach_StanVanGundy       -0.1       2.9           2.9
Coach_ScottSkiles        -1.4       4.2           2.8
Coach_ScottBrooks        1.3        1.5           2.8
Coach_JimOBrian          1.9        0.6           2.5
Coach_LionelHollins      0.9        1.6           2.5
Coach_DwaneCasey         0.2        2.1           2.3
Coach_MikeFratello       -1.4       3.6           2.2
Coach_JeffVanGundy       -1.1       3.2           2.1
Coach_DougCollins        -0.7       2.5           1.8
Coach_GregPopovich       -1         2.8           1.8
Coach_MontyWilliams      -0.5       2.2           1.7
Coach_MikeBrown          0.2        1.2           1.5
Coach_AveryJohnson       -1.5       2.9           1.4
Coach_FlipSaunders       -1.2       2.5           1.3
Coach_KevinMcHale        1.2        0.1           1.3
Coach_GeorgKarl          -0.2       1.6           1.3
Coach_PaulWestphal       0.9        0.4           1.2
Coach_JerrySloan         -0.6       1.8           1.2
Coach_SamMitchell        0.7        0.4           1.1
Coach_LarryDrew          -0.4       1.4           1
Coach_VinnyDelNegro      0.1        0.8           0.9
Coach_TonyDiLeo          1.5        -0.7          0.8
Coach_KeithSmart         0.8        -0.1          0.7
Coach_PhilJackson        -0.4       0.9           0.5
Coach_FrankVogel         0.3        0.2           0.5
Coach_RickAdelman        -0.5       1             0.5
Coach_PaulSilas          0.7        -0.2          0.5
Coach_JimBoylan          1.2        -0.9          0.4
Coach_MikeD'Antoni       0.4        0.1           0.4
Coach_DocRivers          -2.1       2.4           0.3
Coach_KurtRambis         -0.4       0.6           0.2
Coach_MikeWoodson        0.2        -0.1          0.2
Coach_EricSpoelstra      -0.7       0.8           0.1
Coach_MikeMontgomery     -1.2       1.3           0
Coach_BernieBickerstaff  -1         1             0
Coach_AlvinGentry        1.4        -1.5          -0.1
Coach_TerryStotts        -0.7       0.4           -0.2
Coach_IsiahThomas        -1.1       0.9           -0.2
Coach_MauriceCheeks      -0.9       0.7           -0.2
Coach_MikeDunleavy       -1.1       0.7           -0.4
Coach_TonyBarone         1          -1.5          -0.5
Coach_ReggieTheus        0.8        -1.2          -0.5
Coach_JayTriano          0.5        -1            -0.5
Coach_DonNelson          0.6        -1.1          -0.5
Coach_BobHill            0.1        -0.7          -0.6
Coach_BrianHill          -1.7       0.9           -0.8
Coach_NateMcMillan       -0.9       0.1           -0.8
Coach_EricMusselman      -1.1       0.4           -0.8
Coach_EddieJordan        -0.4       -0.5          -0.9
Coach_RickCarlisle       -2.5       1.6           -0.9
Coach_MichaelCurry       -0.4       -0.5          -0.9
Coach_RandyWittman       -0.1       -0.9          -1
Coach_PatRiley           -2.2       1.1           -1.1
Coach_LarryBrown         -1.9       0.8           -1.1
Coach_LawrenceFrank      -1.4       0.2           -1.2
Coach_JeffBower          -0.4       -0.9          -1.2
Coach_KikiVandeweghe     -0.8       -0.5          -1.2
Coach_TyroneCorbin       -0.1       -1.4          -1.4
Coach_ByronScott         -1.4       -0.1          -1.5
Coach_P.J.Carlesimo      -1.9       0.4           -1.6
Coach_EdTapscott         -0.2       -1.4          -1.6
Coach_MarcIavaroni       -0.3       -1.3          -1.6
Coach_SamVincent         -0.1       -1.6          -1.7
Coach_JohnKuester        -0.7       -1.1          -1.7
Coach_TerryPorter        -1.9       0.2           -1.7
Coach_KennyNatt          0.4        -2.6          -2.2
Coach_KimHughes          -0.2       -1.9          -2.2
Coach_LarryKrystkowiak   0.4        -2.8          -2.3
Coach_BobWeiss           -0.2       -2.1          -2.3

What jumps out to me is that, by this analysis, what we think of as good coaching appears to have a much stronger impact on defense rather than offense. In a way, this makes sense as it is really looking at that "chemistry factor". Offense tends to be based more on sum talents of the individual 5 players, and maybe even less so in systems that are very demanding on the defensive end. But defenses are more based on team work and with decent coaching should come out to be better than the "sum of the parts".

 

The article (nice find!) goes on to say:
"More interesting than the names on Berri's list is his finding that the influence of even the best coaches was statistically very small and was distinguishable only from the worst-rated coaches, like Floyd. Even title-winning, Hall of Fame coaches like Pat Riley and Larry Brown were shown to have almost no impact on their teams. Players leaving Riley-led teams actually got better (except, it seems, for Antoine Walker)."
and
"Before we jump to the conclusion that most NBA coaches are just clerks with clipboards, we must acknowledge the inherent problems with measuring a coach's impact."
and
"It's also worth mentioning that not every basketball stats guy agrees with Berri. Dean Oliver, the director of quantitative analysis for the Denver Nuggets, examined NBA coaching in his 2004 book Basketball on Paper. Oliver's research was based on using various methods of establishing an expected number of wins, things like comparing a team's field goal percentage to its opponents'. Oliver then compared these expectations with a coach's actual record. His findings: Coaches like Phil Jackson can be worth up to an additional 12 wins per year. Oliver admits his methods have their limits, and even if a coach is exceeding expectations, it's hard to know exactly why."

 

I think they missed the boat with the impact of coaches. It may be less noticeable with veteran players, who have less room for improvement than players with less than 3 years experience.

Look at what happened to Darren Collison with 3 different coaches. He went from a good player under Bower to crap with O'Brien and back to his normal self under novice coach Vogel.

The Pacers went from 17-27(0.386) under O'Brien to 20-18(0.526) under Vogel with the mid-season change. Collison, Hibbert, Hansbrought and others all made significant improvement under Vogel. This was all done with the same roster at the beginning of the season.