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Silver Model gives Trump 28% chance to win election

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Aug 13, 2020.

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  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    #1 Carl Herrera, Aug 13, 2020
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  2. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    He gave him a 30% chance to win it last time.

    Is this like a loot crate where I'm mathematically favored for winning an item but never get it until all my time and monies are gone?
     
    #2 Invisible Fan, Aug 13, 2020
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  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    28% ... that's scary.
     
    #3 durvasa, Aug 13, 2020
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  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Yes, Silver was more positive on Trump last time around than the vast majority of models.

    His model is also currently more positive for Trump as well than others out there, which have 85-90+ % chance for Biden.

    Silver says much of the uncertainty is there is a lot of time left and convention, debates still to go and events that can still happen.
     
    #4 Carl Herrera, Aug 13, 2020
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  5. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    #5 KingCheetah, Aug 13, 2020
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  6. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    #6 Mr.Scarface, Aug 13, 2020
  7. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Waterburgers is that Chicago company that makes delicious hotdogs and burgers for Texans correct?
     
    #7 KingCheetah, Aug 13, 2020
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  8. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    Better than those Nasty In -N- Out burgers I see people lining up for in Stafford. LOL.
     
    #8 Mr.Scarface, Aug 13, 2020
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    28% seems right for right now.

    I suspect that it is going to be closer to 40% or more by election day.

    Trump is not likely to screw up as bad as he has the last 5-6 months, he will do things like mess with the postal service, drop funding on special interest groups to get votes and anything else possible to give him a chance of winning.
     
    #9 Nook, Aug 13, 2020
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  10. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    Silver's analysis sounds about right for me. I agree that things might tighten but Trump does have a lot going against him. All that said it should be troubling how his approval ratings are essentially holding steady in the low 40%. Just for reference Obama's lowest approval rating was 37% and GW Bush was 25%. The fact that with things arguably worse than they were in 2008 and Trump's approval rating isn't near Bush's is cause to worry.
     
    #10 rocketsjudoka, Aug 13, 2020
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  11. ROXRAN

    ROXRAN Contributing Member

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    The postal office is a mess as it is... I predict this will be a contentious matter no matter who actually wins. God bless us everyone
     
    #11 ROXRAN, Aug 13, 2020
  12. Anticope

    Anticope Member

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    It's worth noting that Silver mentioned in his column that if the election were held today his model would have Biden at a 93% chance to win.
     
    #12 Anticope, Aug 13, 2020
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  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Correct, he is accounting for the 3 months of time until the election.
     
    #13 Nook, Aug 13, 2020
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  14. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
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    No matter what Trump does in 3 months wouldn't sway my vote. He'll never change. I still believe the man is a psychopath, but that's my opinion.
     
    #14 deb4rockets, Aug 13, 2020
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  15. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    #15 Commodore, Aug 13, 2020
  16. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    My bad thought title said silver models that can give you erections -- way off topic apologies to all.
     
    #16 KingCheetah, Aug 13, 2020
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  17. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Here is some material for you.

    [​IMG]
     
    #17 fchowd0311, Aug 13, 2020
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  18. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    28% is about average for a three point shot. 40% is Harden with the game on the line.
     
    #18 No Worries, Aug 13, 2020
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  19. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    If the 15 million unemployed get their jobs back ...

    If the 165,000 are raised from the dead fully heathy ...

    I will feel really bad for Trump as I voted for Biden.
     
    #19 No Worries, Aug 13, 2020
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  20. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    If that’s the coronavirus, I’m a dead man.
     
    #20 No Worries, Aug 13, 2020
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