Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by kevC, Oct 17, 2016.
It's risky but I like it. He's confident in himself that's for sure. If he's good then he'll have no problem getting that $100 mil when he signs an extension. This is only a bad decision if he flames out.
Extensions in the MLB are regulated so teams can't just give out any amount they want. It has to be in line with previous extensions. The reference here would be Mike Trout's $144mil extension as the best player on the planet at age 22.
If Otani is worth $100+mil extension next season, then he'd also be worth $300+mil as a FA in 2 years.
Good for him to be driven by competition over money, but he will basically be stuck making the minimum for 3 years and arbitration for 3 years. And that is if the team doesn't dick with him and start him in the minors to get him acclimated to the US (obviously not the real intent).
The more I read the more I think he will sign with either the Rangers or the Yankees, with Seattle and LA being the only other realistic options.
While it is against the rules and counts as circumvention, there is no chance Ohtani doesn't have an unofficial agreement with whoever he signs with that he will start in majors Day 1. If MLB team doesn't keep its word, he'll let it slip that they had an agreement such that Manfred can go all Goodell. In addition, players and agents are not going to want to sign with a team that is untrustworthy. No team is going to risk losing him by screwing around.
Dodgers would be the best fit, except they are not in the American League and do not have a DH.
Yankees are likely the best fit, since they are in the American League and would land him the best endorsement deals. Yankees also have Tanaka.
If the Astros signed Yu Darvish this offseason, ...
We don't need him... we have JD Davis and Tyler White...
...I hear Rick Ankiel is available if that doesn't work out.
There are suggestions that NL is a better fit since he can pinch-hit on his off days...
...they wouldn't have won the World Series.
In the AL he can DH in his off days.
What contractual limitations exist? Can we offer him an option on the ARB-years or an option on the 7th year?
Even something absurd like, say, $50mm in year 7? If he's a 3 WAR player over the 7 years that's 21 WAR @ ~$8mm/yr open-market value:
- That's $168mm of value over those 7 years
- If he gets $3mm/yr for first 3 +
- a hypothetically absurd $12mm/yr for 3 ARBs +
- $50mm option for year 7
That's 'only' $95mm committed over 7 years still yielding > $70mm of surplus value.
There are iterative scenarios like the ARB years @ $15mm/yr on average. In such a case I would submit he's performing well above 3 WAR/yr so the iterations by way of the offsetting path risk largely offsets and likely yields even more surplus value than I calculated above.
95/7 = $13.5mm/yr or roughly a 1.7 WAR open-market equivalent. There's no 1.7 WAR player that would ever actually get a 95mm/7yr open market contract but economically, and perhaps even practically, it's not hard to rationalize this approach to Otani. And it's likely even harder for a 22 y/o to rationalize giving up the kind of guaranteed money in this discussion. Of course without knowing the specifics of contract restrictions it may be a moot point.
He is subject to the international amateur signing restrictions, which means a team can only offer him up to their pool and/or bonus restrictions and Houston can only offer him $300k. No team can promise him an extension or offer a major league contract 7th year or anything like that, and this deal will be heavily scrutinized by the league to make sure there’s no funny business. That said, I think any team that signs him will do so with the expectation that once he has a successful 1/2 season in the majors he will be given a healthy extension.
Yeah I found this and it outlines the unfortunately limited options fairly well: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-to-sign-shohei-otani/
Even this interesting morsel only applies to an extension: "And one way to do it might be to include both an opt-in and an opt-out. Since Ohtani’s next deal will have to have some predecessor, perhaps the arbitration language could be borrowed from the deals signed by guys like Jose Abreu. As a true free agent, Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million contract that guaranteed him $34 million over his three arbitration years. It offered him the ability to opt-in to arbitration, though, instead of accepting the agreed-upon salaries for the last three years if he felt he could earn more by going through the arbitration system."
Well, that's unfortunate. And with a very recent and likely somewhat correlated lifetime ban(s) suddenly in-play for nefarious or under-the-table dealings it's going to be as vegetable lasagna as it gets this first go-around.
He's going to the Yankees. They always do.
I think the Rangers have a good shot. Either way it’s looking like the Ohtani situation will be a bad thing for Houston.
My current dream offseason:
Sign Lucroy $22M/2yr
Sign McGee $14M/2y
Sign Rodney $5M/1yr
Sign Granderson $5M/1yr
Trade Moran, Feliz, and Fiers for Britton
Trade P Tucker and Stassi for lotto prospects
Trade Sipp and $3M for a lotto prospect
Claim 2 young upside arms with options off of waivers (like Tolliver last year)
Opening day 40 man roster:
Bench: Marwin, Marisnick, McCann
Rotation: Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, McCullers, McHugh
Bullpen: Peacock, Musgrove, Devenski, Harris, McGee, Rodney, Giles, Britton
Optioned to minors: Reed, White, Davis, Kemp, Fisher, C Perez, Deetz, Guduan, Gustave, Hoyt, Martes, Paulino, Rodgers, TBD, TBD
Rangers ask Manfred for a special investigator even before Astros sign Ohtani.
Of the 10 top rated players to ever come out of Japan, exactly one signed with the Yankees first.
Would Matsui not for the top 10?
Matsui & Tanaka are the big ones. Irabu forced his way to the Yankees. Obviously lost out on Dice K and Darvish.