Rockets tend to lose when Harden aims for triple doubles?

Great graph.

Need a serious talk with Harden.

On a serious note. I've never really care about guards getting tons of rebounds. I don't see how it helps the team win.

 

He should strive to be the assist leader...oh wait.

 

I feel like the team is better when everyone contributes, triple doubles are nice and all, but I'd rather see everyone scoring or rebounding.

 

PB just showed how getting rebounds helps a team win

 

...JCDenton?

 

Snatching offensive rebounds hustling is not the same as guards getting uncontested defensive rebounds.

Anyway, individual rebounding numbers are generally overrated. It's team rebounding that's important.

 

what about when bigs are doing what they're supposed to and boxing out so that the guards do in fact have to come in and get it. i agree team rebounding is way more important because as a whole you can do a lot better.

 

This belongs in the Causation v Correlation thread, no?

Couple problems with your hypothesis:

1. Your hypothesis assumes rebounds cause Harden to get tired. That's a leap of logic, which severely weakens your hypothesis right out of the gate....(see Causation vs Correlation thread.)
2. Harden averages 8.3 rebounds in Wins for the season. 7.5 in Losses
3. 11 out of 19 losses, Harden rebounded under his season average
4. Rockets are 12-3 when Harden gets a triple double
5. Your focus on Triple Double is misleading. In the two 30pt blowouts in the graph, Harden played under 30 minutes, thus giving up chance to get the Triple Double. Might want to focus on Reb% or something else.

 

I think the cause and effect relationship in this connection can be debated.

I liken it to the stat that says teams that run the ball more in football win. This is because losing teams have to throw their way back into the game where winning teams run the ball to eat clock and protect against turnovers.

James Harden does everything and gets huge triple doubles when he has to. We are a worst team when we are in positions that force james to chase triple doubles but we arent worst because he goes for the triple doubles.

 

My point is, who cares who gets the rebounds, the bigs or the guards, as long as it's our team that gets it? When a team's guards get close to the same number, or even more, rebounds than their bigs, and team rebounding is not good, that may just be an indicator of weak bigs rather than strong guards.

 

And yet 80% of the time he does get a triple double we win. He has 15 TD's so far and 12 were W's and only 3 were L's.

Also When he has been "close" to a TD (one or two rebounds or assists away) we have also won more than not. I counted 10 instances were he has been 1-2 rebound or Assist from the TD and again our Winning percentage is 80% with 8 W's and 2 L's

On the other hand when he has not been close to the TD, lets say only a Double Double and at least 4 shy on the third stat to get the TD, our record is 75% with 16 games, 12 W's and 4 L's

 

Was thinking the same.

 

Two short data lessons:

1. Sort the series by rebounds, then plot the data again.

2. Do not smoothen the curve unless you have a very good reason to.

 

When the PG gets the rebound, it is the most efficient and fastest way to start a fastbreak. (Do you not recall the Capela TOs just trying to get Harden the ball after a rebound.) Same philosophy with Jason Kidd.

Plus, we have Harden in the front court playing defense. Whenever he can, he will either start in the front court with Corner-3 responsibilities, or we will switch him off the perimeter to get him in that same position. That accomplishes two things....we hide Harden's D by getting him off the opposing team's pt of attach on the perimeter,,,,ideally getting him on the weakside, and he can rebound better from there to start the fastbreak.

oh, and assigning him Corner-3 responsibilities expends less energy...putting another chink in OP's Hypothesis around Energy.​

His rebounds aren't attempts to get Triple Doubles; MDA pts him in position to get them for the break, which in turn, leads to Triple Doubles. This is the very same as Westbrook.

The theory that JH and WB are going for the Triple Doubles is bunk. That theory might work with guys trying to get their first ever, but JH and WB do it soooo much, it is more an outcome of the system to leverage their PG skills, fastbreaking and natural rebounding abilities.

 

Am I losing my mind? Are we really at the point that we complain about our guy "chasing" a triple double? I get it if he misses on purpose to get his own rebound... or you could make the point that he passes up opportunities to take a guy one on one and go to the hole by passing it the OPEN guy for a shot.... But really? He would be pretty close to Westbrook for triple doubles if he stayed in the game during these blowouts. But he sits out!

Gotta accept that we won't win every game even though we want to... That's what makes the Bulls team and last year's Warriors something to talk about... But I'll say most teams that have won the championship haven't had to win all their regular season games. Let's relax and just watch this legend in the making...

 

I don't care for guards getting rebounds either. Unfortunately for us if we didn't have Harden rebounding we'd be 30th in the Association in rebounding.

Additionally, what makes Harden the most tired is being the sole playmaker when he is on-court. All the juking, crab dribbles, driving, stops and starts, is what saps Hardens energy.

Finally, in last night's game, it was Harden looking for his tenth assist that bogged our offense down. Clips attacked his dribble and smothered him out high with two defenders around him even before he caught the basketball. He couldnt even get to a screen, couldn't really do much besides go way out to almost midcourt and try to initiate from there.

That pursuit of the tenth assist hurt us in the fourth. We were trying to do two things, get Hardens tenth assist, and get 25 made threes. Clips played us defensively to stop those two things and we kept doggedly trying to get them. We shot a bunch of contested threes that had no chance of going down because they forced the ball out of Hardens hands and then the shooter was contested or had to attempt to create because the defenders were playing so far up to take away the three. And we didn't have anybody that could create and finish with the defense playing out so high. Their defenders shut down everybody attempting to drive, Anderson, Gordon, Lou. None of them could get by their defenders.

 

Despite all this blew them away by 20 odd and you're here b****ing.

Look, I don't like it when Harden goes into stat but yday was vastly different. Not at any point in the 4th quarter were Rockets in any danger.

 

Counterpoint: WB is going for triple doubles.

 

Yeah, that's the biggest hole in the OP's premise. Harden's rebounding numbers is not about him expensing energy chasing Triple Doubles.

I think your point about PG's getting rebound being the most efficient way to start a fast break is only valid to a certain extent. It really depends on the PG's style. The most classic example is Magic Johnson. He loved to grab defensive rebounds and dribble up court immediately. Same with Kidd and Rondo. It didn't work so much for guys like Steve Francis (also a great rebounding guard). The PG has to be able to make fast decisions while bring the ball up court, plus he has to have great handle to go full speed with the ball. I actually think Harden is not elite in these aspects. His rebounding is more related to his defensive positioning, and probably the weak rebounding of our bigs.

IMO, the most efficient way to start fast breaks is a big man who excel in outlet passes. Bill Walton is the classic example. A pass is always faster than dribbles. If the PG is already in mid court when he gets the ball, it is that much faster to beat the defense to the basket.

Anyway, my point in talking with YOLO was that the nature of Harden's rebounding number is very different from Beverley's.