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Rockets minutes forecast

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Samiam1234, Feb 21, 2018.

  1. Samiam1234

    Samiam1234 Member

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    So I like the recent D'antoni trend of scaling the minutes down, and just saw the sample size of the last 15 games, and Harden is averaging just slightly over 34 minutes.. In February he is at 33.7 minutes, while still averaging 30 points on 43% shooting at 37% 3's and 8.6 assists.. In January ever since Harden returned he was averaging 34.4 minutes which is skewed by two (38 and 47) minutes games when we lost Paul and Ariza. The last three games before Ariza went down (post Harden return) he was averaging 28 mpg as well. I think if we can play harden gordon and Paul right around 30-33 minutes, Capela 26 minutes and Ariza, Luc, Tucker and Ryno around 22-24 minutes giving wright/nene or Johnson/Green 15 minutes each that would be my ideal scenario. Also in a back to back rotate between wright with nene and Johnson with Green. This obviously won't happen as D'antoni would never go with a ten player rotation and Ariza would never get around 22-24 minutes even though Luc has definitely shown and earned at least equal playing time.
     
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  2. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    after watching nba long before mda came here, i'll believe this 10man rotation when i see it
     
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  3. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    People will see how much Joe Johnson and Wright will help this team.

    Joe Johnson will allow Harden and CP3 to take nights off or decrease their mins per game. Joe Johnson
    will also get nights off to rest. JJ can run the team thru the half court . In the one game JJ played, he was
    started off stationed at the 3-point line corners. As the game progressed it looked like MDA just told him “do your
    thing.” At that point he started going iso & posting up. JJ looked much better at that point. Team will benefit
    down the stretch from the presence of JJ....so will CP3/Harden.

    People will see a carbon copy of Capela in Brandan Wright. @ballscientist1 take note. Wright will allow
    Capela and Nene to take nights off down the stretch and get plenty of rest going into the playoffs. Wright
    will set picks, roll, dunk it home. Just like Capela. Wright will block shots. Just like Capela. Wright has
    a higher block% than Capela. This helps the Rockets down the stretch as they ready themselves for the
    playoffs.

    Gerald Green, Eric Gordon, Ariza and Luc MaM can take turns taking nights off. Matchups can determine
    some nightly allocation of mins. Who plays and who should rest. Coaches decision. Be fresh going into the playoffs.

    I’m expecting PJ Tucker to continue starting at PF. Ryan Anderson continues coming off the bench.
    It would be nice to get an additional PF thru the buyout market if possible; but the Rockets should be ok
    finishing out the season.

    With players getting rest and MDA using analytics for favorable matchups to help determine who plays
    on most given nights....the Rockets should win most of their remaining 25 games on the schedule.
    Harden, CP3, Green, Tucker, Luc MaM, Wright, Nene, Joe Johnson, Ariza, Eric Gordon are all experienced
    players. Capela was tested in the past two playoff year runs. All of these players know the end game.
    Egos will not get in the way of distribution of mins if the team plays it right. Guys could play one game a
    week and be fine with it.....as long as one of Harden or CP3 is playing. Being ready and rested for the
    playoffs is first and foremost importance.
     
    Chamillionaire, Deuce, Soneca and 8 others like this.
  4. TracywtFacy

    TracywtFacy Member

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    Fine in theory, but this is MDA, we all know his history. Also add the fact that whilst being fresh for the playoffs is important, so is securing the 1st seed. As long as we are in the race, MDA will not sacrifice one regular season win for some extra rest.

    The best thing we can hope for is a lot of boring wins...
     
    Roomba, D-rock, bilaal14 and 3 others like this.
  5. topfive

    topfive CF OG
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    Hell, for that matter, take an entire class.
     
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  6. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Each can go hand in hand.

    Look at the remaining schedule. Which games present a problem. T-Wolves? Thunder? Boston?
    Put the best matchups out there in those games. Rest certain players other days. Really it’s not that hard.
    If Morey thought MDA wouldn’t play them to rest guys down the stretch.....then he wouldn’t have picked
    them up. Joe will play so we can see how his post up presence works with our spacers.
    Those 3-point shooters need to get or receive a pass from Joe J after driving or posting up. You don’t
    need every game to study that. These are vets we are talking about. Joe needs plenty of rest as well.
     
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  7. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Really if MDA and the Rockets play this right.....Rockets should win every game remaining in the reg schedule.

    Injuries will be the only issue.
     
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  8. MorningZippo

    MorningZippo Member

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    No you.

    The Kings are better than the rockets, because 2 x 2 = 3
     
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  9. LorneMalvo

    LorneMalvo Member

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    This is the most delusional thing I have ever read. Joe Johnson has not been a good NBA player on either side of the ball in about 4 years.

    He literally had a decent two or three game stretch against the smallest wing rotation in the NBA playoffs last year and has gotten an unbelievable amount of hype and overratedness for it. Utah is a good, well-coached, competent NBA team on both ends that could very well end up making the PS, and they gave him away for absolutely nothing. He is that bad at this point. He has one of the worst RPM's in the entire NBA. A bottom 15 RPM of all 488 qualifying players.

    Joe Johnson did 5 points on 9 shots against literally the worst team in the NBA during non garbage time, and you come to conclude he will carry units?

    Unbelievable the stuff I'm reading.

    You people better genuinely hope this guy takes absolutely no minutes from any of the decent players(Luc, Gordon, Anderson, Green).
     
    #9 LorneMalvo, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
    mario_v likes this.
  10. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Joe Johnson had an outstanding post season with Miami two years ago and with Utah last year.

    The Rockets offer spacing that Utah can only dream of when you think they run out there Gobert/Favors
    combo. Which of those two spread the floor?

    Playoffs are a different animal. Mostly a half court thing you probably don’t understand.

    Not saying you are wrong. Just saying I would like to see Joe Johnson vs :
    Clips (Tobias Harris, can JJ score on TH; can he somewhat defend TH)
    Thunder (Melo, can JJ make Melo work; how does he do guarding Melo)
    Spurs (Can JJ keep Kawhi occupied so that he doesn’t guard Harden; can the savvy JJ stay in front of Kawhi)


    I would not play Joe Johnson vs Boston. Or Utah. Or the Raptors. Etc. there in lies the games that you sit him.
    There are some games he would do better than others. A wrinkle in the offense that just might surprise the
    level minded person. Morey I’m sure sees it in the analytics that you might not.
     
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  11. Samiam1234

    Samiam1234 Member

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    I do like your optimism on JJ and I would love it if JJ can have a similar Kyle Korver type effect. It doesn't seem to be very far fetched JJ averaged 9.3 ppg last year on 44% from field and 41% from 3 point, His minutes can be reduced to about 14-16 for higher efficiency use, thats all the rockets can afford with a star studded line up any ways, and even then he will have to almost alternate nights with Gerald Green.
     
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  12. Samiam1234

    Samiam1234 Member

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    I am not going to make myself falsely believe that wright is anything close to Capela.. Firstly I know he is no where the rebounder.. In fact he is a very below average rebounder for some one who stands 6-11 and block shots the way he does. I do like the high field goal percentage that does tell me he is good at catching and dunking lobs and plays within his strength, but I have also heard he is highly turnover prone and does not have anywhere the hands capela does.. Again I love the idea of have Capela like player for almost 40 minutes a game but I am going to reserve judgement till I see him play.. rebounds concern me
     
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  13. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Joe Johnson: basketball-reference.com
    15-16 (Miami) regular season
    13.4 pts......2.8 rbs........3.6 asts......56.9% (2P%)......10.5 FGA........51.8% (FG%)

    15-16 (Miami) playoffs
    12.1 pts.......4.7 rbs .....2.5 asts......49.1% (2P%)........11.3 FGA.......43.0% (FG%)

    16-17 (Utah) regular season
    9.2 pts..........3.1 rbs......1.8 asts......45.4% (2P%)........8.0 FGA........43.6% (FG%)
    16-17 (Utah) playoffs
    12.9 pts........3.9 rbs ....2.5 asts .....48.9% (2P%).......12.1 FGA......43.6% (FG%)

    Notice increase in FGA’s from reg season to playoffs. Notice Utah #’s increased across the board in Utah playoffs.


    per stats.nba.com playtype in regular season and playoffs.
    http://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs

    Joe Johnson
    Post Ups..................................Frequency......................ppp...................NBA percentile

    15-16 Regular season (Miami):....10.7%..............................1.15............................80.7
    15-16 Playoffs (Miami):................16.8%.............................1.03............................85.3
    Compare that to:
    15-16 Playoffs: Livingston (GSW)..11.3%.............................1.00............................81.8

    Post Ups...................................Frequency......................ppp....................NBA percentile
    16-17 Regular season (Utah):........10.5%.............................0.78............................23.7
    16-17 Playoffs (Utah):....................10.6%.............................0.75............................32.3
    Compare that to:
    16-17 Playoffs: Blake Griffin (Clips)..23.3%...........................0.71............................29.0

    _____________________________________________________________________________
    Joe Johnson
    Iso...............................................Frequency......................ppp.....................NBA percentile

    15-16 Regular season (Miami): ........11.4%............................1.03.............................90.4
    15-16 Playoffs (Miami):....................13.9%............................0.96.............................75.7
    Compare that to:
    15-16 Playoffs: LeBron James (Cavs)..23.3%.........................0.94.............................73.0

    Iso.................................................Frequency......................ppp....................NBA percentile
    16-17 Regular season (Utah): ...........15.3%.............................0.79.............................43.1
    16-17 Playoffs: (Utah):......................19.2%.............................0.86.............................44.4
    Compare that to:
    16-17 Playoffs: Paul Millsap (Atl):.......19.3%.............................0.93.............................55.6

    Maybe Joe Johnson has nothing left in the tank; but don’t judge Joe on one game in which he has never
    played or practiced with his new teammate before.

    I’m not saying Joe Johnson is expected to carry the team in the playoffs. Just perhaps against some of these
    bottom feeders that the Rockets play at the end of the schedule. You mean to tell me the Rockets can’t
    let Joe Johnson/Eric Gordon/Gerald Green run the team vs Atl, Dallas, Suns; while letting Harden/CP3 rest.
    WITH SOME PRACTICE. Maybe these Rockets are not as good as I think.
     
    #13 ApacheWarrior, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  14. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Hmm. I can’t speak to everything you mentioned in this post. Just that Brandan Wright needs to be good enough
    to give Nene rest. Codman mentioned that he was exhausted (in different terms).

    Nene can be used predominantly vs teams down the stretch with big “Bigs”

    82games.com
    Has a “Hands Rating” with each player. The higher the number the better. It is composed of:
    *Offensive Fouls
    *Bad Passes
    *Ball Handling Turnovers
    *Other Turnovers

    I just pulled some names for reference

    Player................”Hands Ratings”
    Harden.....................35.0
    CP3...........................32.7
    Curry.........................26.7
    Kyrie.........................21.8
    Horford.....................19.0
    Embiid......................10.9
    Drummond...............11.8
    Brandan Wright......12.3
    Capela........................7.2

    From that site one can find the PER of each player at each position they play at:
    Capela has only been at Center: 48-min PER 29.5
    Wright at only Center:................. 48-min PER 25.6
    It’s Wright at PF that brings down his PER total

    Edited: LaMarcus Aldridge is also 12.3 “Hands Ratings”

    Also, one (any reader of this post) shouldn’t be confused by Tyreke Evans/McLemore/Chalmers
    passing the ball as a CP3 or Harden. That’s no contest for placing the ball where it needs to be.
     
    #14 ApacheWarrior, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  15. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    Is it just me?!?

    But i think B wright is going to do wonders for this team..... by boosting the 2nd unit drastically. Maybe the best lob threat behind DJ in the whole NBA. Look for him and Cp3 to get the connection harden and clint have. CAN'T WAIT!
     
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  16. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    I’m looking forward to the games starting as well. Brandan is a very underrated pickup. People will marvel
    at Morey for the Brandan Wright pickup, much like they marvel about the Gerald Green “How did they get that guy”

    http://stats.nba.com/players/roll-man/

    Roll-Man................................Frequency.......................ppp..............................NBA percentile
    Brandan Wright (17-18)
    ...........28.1%.............................1.21......................................75.7
    Capela (17-18).............................34.5%.............................1.34......................................88.1
    Nene (17-18)................................39.7%.............................1.07......................................50.8
    T Black (17-18).............................36.2%.............................1.27......................................84.7

    So one can see that Brandan Wright will have his frequency go up about 6-8%
    Problem with T Black is that he didn’t play above the rim as much; not nearly as much as the Rockets wanted
    him to play. Except for his last game. Wright has no problem going above the rim on a regular basis.

    Ryan and Nene have really fallen in this category since last year.
    Roll-Man.................................Frequency....................ppp...............................NBA percentile
    Nene (16-17)..............................31.7%.............................1.25......................................90.3 (vs 50.8 this yr)

    Ryan Anderson (17-18)..............17.5%.............................0.90.....................................19.2
    Ryan Anderson (16-17)..............17.7%.............................1.12.....................................68.8

    Capela (16-17) ...........................28.0%.............................1.14.....................................72.9
    One can see a Capela progressed this year from last year in this stat.
     
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  17. rockbox

    rockbox Contributing Member
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    I hated the MDA hire at first but I must admit that his system brings out the best in certain types of players. Great point guards, shooters, and roll men. Brandon Wright is going to look like a 10 million dollar a year player in this system with CP3 and Harden passing him the ball in situations where all he has to do is catch it and dunk it. 48 minutes of elite Pick N Rolls with 3 solid shooters spreading the court.
     
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  18. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    looks like people may be setting the bar a bit high for wright has if hes going to be playing the same amount as capella. The rotation at the 5 is never going to be just bw capella and wright.
     
  19. D-rock

    D-rock Member
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    Just hope BW can stay healthy. That's been his biggest hurdle in taking next step.
     
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  20. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    We (most of us) have said the same about Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon
     
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