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Rockets don't like "in-between" shots

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 25, 2012.

  1. real_egal

    real_egal Contributing Member

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    I couldn't disagree more, especially the bold part. Let's take some extreme cases to further elaborate the logic fallacy here.

    Dream's career FG% is 51.2%, since his shots were mainly 2 pointers, let's assume they were all 2 pointers. According to your logic and pure math, that's equivalent of a 34.1% 3 pointer FG%. It doesn't sound bad, but still lower than Ron Artest's actual 3 pointer shooting. Of course, you wouldn't say that you pick Worldpeace over Dream. In reality, Dream's 3 point FG% was only 20%.

    On paper, 3 made 2 pointers equal to 2 made 3 pointers. But only problem with that isolated comparison is that every game is played by 2 teams. Your made field goal equals opponent's next possession, but you will be ready with defensive set. Your missed field goal could lead to potential offensive rebounds, but also fast break opportunity for your opponent. So far, missed long 3s are normally not leading to offensive rebounds.

    Not to mention all the defensive match ups, and space for your own teammates, if you can mix your mid-range with long-range and layups.
     
  2. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Rip Hamilton was not a detriment to his championship team, but Chauncey Billups was their finals MVP and needed two less shots to score the same amount of points. Hamilton was a great scorer, but took a lot of shots to get there. Detroit wasn't exactly known for it's great offense, they won on their world class defense.
     
  3. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    This isn't about what makes a good shot, it's what makes a better shot. In Bosh's case, a wide open mid range jumper is a pretty good shot...but if he took the ball strong to the basket it would be an even better shot. You're not making sense here, in close/late game situations you want someone to hurl a mid-range J over driving and going strong to the hoop? Really? Geez, our closer should be Patterson then. A layup has a lower sucess rate than a step back J? Lolwut?

    If your goal is to stretch the D then you should be working on you 3, 3s provide way more spacing than a mid-range, it's also easier to practice than a mid-range, because mid-range shots almost always aren't done with your feet set.
     
  4. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Please, please don't tell me you dared to invoke the Dream posting up against double teams in a discussion of Scola jumpshots. Please tell me you did watch the Rockets during the Dream days, and saw how many open 3-pointers Hakeem created because of defenses collapsing on him. Please tell me you saw how Hakeem scored at will against single-team coverage, scoring at a much, much higher than 51% clip when defenses played him straight up. Oh, and he shot FTs too, which bumps up his actual scoring efficiency.

    Comparing Hakeem's overall shooting to Scola taking an open 18ft jumper is nothing short of blasphemy.
     
  5. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Dream's career percentage is composed mostly of layups, dunks and post moves. He's not a jumpshooter.

    I'm not sure what you're trying to say with the missed 3 pointers. Sure they lead to rebs by the other team, but mid-range Js also lead to rebs by the other team lol.

    Again if you want to provide spacing it's better to hit 3s than 2s. If you want to convert, then it's better to score in the post than shoot a mid-range J.
     
  6. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    last season wade's was 37% not including 3-9 ft, i couldn't get to exact page
     
  7. real_egal

    real_egal Contributing Member

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    ???? What exactly are you talking about? Didn't you prefer 3 pointer shootings? Didn't I say Dream proved otherwise? What does FT have anything to do with his FG%?

    Posting up in the paint normally gives you highest FG%, mid-range game is the second, and long 3s are dead last.

    Who compared Dream with Scola? I brought up Dream's number simply to show you how ridiculous such plain math conversion between 2 pointer and 3 pointer is.

    No, I didn't compare Dream with Scola. Yes, I did watch Dream play, that's how I became a frigging Rockets fan!

    Now, please get back to the original topic, how's Dream's dominant performance supporting your idea of preferring 3 pointers over mid-range games?
     
  8. real_egal

    real_egal Contributing Member

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    Why is it so hard to understand? Mixing inside, mid-range, and beyond the arc, will give you most variety in offense, less predictable and harder to defend. Any extreme is bad in general, that's just common sense.

    Nobody advocated to get rid of layups and 3s, this thread is about Rockets neglecting in-between shots or incapable of such shots.

    I just don't get why some of you are so jumpy about 3 over 2, as if going all 3 is the way to go for any team.
     
  9. IronicMan

    IronicMan Member

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    The people who support this type of systems prefer both the 3 pointers AND at-rim shots, the latter which Hakeem excelled at. It wasn't until Hakeem losts all his athleticism that he mainly became a jump shooter in the dawn of his career. You just don't draw fouls when you are keep shooting mid range jumpers. Just look at how many free throw attempts he was getting during his prime and compare it to Scola's prime.

    In other words, those people are saying that if the player can't shoot 3s, then they better be able to draw foul to get to the line.
     
  10. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    anyone who saw dream during during the championship years knows his mastery of the mid range jumphook did wonders for the entire os flow of the team's offense. Not to mention sam i am's killer mid range game
     
  11. real_egal

    real_egal Contributing Member

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    Except that Rockets don't have an inside game right now.

    If you don't have a semi-reliable jumper, defending your drive becomes easier, because opponents can give you enough room.
     
  12. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Great stuff durvasa as usual and I see it all. In my opinion, I think the more ways you can score,the harder you are to defend. I don't have stats to back it up,only experience from college ball and playing against guys. There are very few complete offensive players in the game right now. Maybe its because they have done enough of certain things to become successful. That's also why you see guys shoot 45% and be considered good shooters. Not to long ago, 45% wouldn't get you off the bench. Those guys shot a high % because they could score aywhere from 23'9 to layups. I want posters to understand this also, being a 3pt shooter doesn't mean you can shoot, it just mean your range is that far. Guys like bosh,aldridge,and even some of the older bigs like david robinson and even hakeem could shoot 3s and probably make them at a decent clip had they chose to,but they didn't. Later in kevin johnson career, people were surprised when he was knocking down 3s at a good clip. It didn't surprise me because he chose to kill guys from 17 ft.

    When you watch guys play,especially guys who can get to the rim,they don't even have to be great mid range shooters,but you best believe when the game is close,those guys rely on that shot. Paul pierce,kobe bryant,durant,dirk,lbj,wade, anthony, and pretty much every guy who is a go to player on their team. Why? Teams aren't going to allow you to get to the rim. Since its late,they're already pressing you up on the 3pt line. So the hard charge,head down,pull up mid range is the shot to take and make. Even if you think of it this way, jordan is probably the greatest scorer in the history of the game in the modern era. His 1st step quickness and athleticism,ball handling,and mid range game is what allowed him to get to the rim and finish,but get fouled a lot. The triangle offense is based inside the 3pts line for the most part and because jordan was inside the 3pt line a lot,he only needed 2 driblbles or so to get where he needed to go. Because he was inside the 3pt line, his hard charge then pull up was basically unguardable. This is one of the main reasons why he's a career 50% too. So whether its called a ineffecient shot or not,the greatest scorers in the history of the game shot a lot of those ineffecient shots.
     
  13. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Avoiding 'in-between' shots can lead to high efficiency, but it can be overdone and has its limitations.

    We all know Kevin Martin would be an allstar if he's a capable defender. However, even martin in his prime often disappear in 4th quarter or clutch time. Why? Because his bread and butter - 3 pt in transition/open/off screen... and pumpfake to slash inside - were taken away by intensified perimeter defense and help defense in the paint. Also, his lack of stength/explosiveness doesn't fit the '4th quarter NBA rule' - Refs simly call the fouls differently at that point(more contacts allowed).

    In Martin's case, high efficiency is more or less a byproduct of his inability to create his own shots, especially in clutch time.
     
  14. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    If you dissect Harden's offensive game it is apparent that his drives start at the 3 point line. Why? Because the defender must respect the 3 point shot. As soon as the defender stops the close out Harden burst around him for the rim. We saw Parsons also do that a few times against the Knicks.

    The spacing of the defenders when at the 3 point line is much more conducive to a drive to the basket. Closer in it is much easier for the help defender to cover the drive because the defense has collapsed. With proper spacing at the 3 point line help on the drive is much further away.

    If you look at Harden's shot charts it is not like he does not shoot the pull up jumper, but there are fewer of them than 3 point shots.
     
  15. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    speaking of superstars and jumphooks and kings, what did james learn from the dream over last year's summer. I gues the lesson is that a focal point of an offense best be a midrange beast
     
  16. leslie

    leslie Member

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    In Bosh's case, if Scola is the defender, he should take the ball strong to the basket because it would be a better shot, but I don't think attacking Asik in the paint is more efficient than taking a wide open mid range jumper. Heats got a big lead because of his mid-range jumpers. You also have to consider that those jumpers took Asik out of the game and this opened up the lane for driving players.

    In late game situation, I don't mean that we hand the ball to Patterson and let him be our closer. However, if he takes an open shot on a pick-and-pop, it's a high quality shot. If his defender rotates to double team Harden and leaves him open on the weak side, we do want him to take that open shot. In fact, Lowry and Scola played a lot of pick & pop late in games last season.

    For final possession, a step back jump shot is good because you don't want to leave time for the other team to tie or win. I believe it has a better success rate than a layup because the other team would fully commit to stop the drive in a final possession, so you can easily create separation from the defender by stepping back. Here we are comparing open shots to contested layups. I remember many of Pierce's game-winners are step-back jump shots. Just two weeks ago, Kemba Walker had a game-winning step-back against the timberwolves.

    If a player can make both at a good percentage, he should take a three instead of a mid-range but this is not always the case as mentioned by others. Even if the expected point per possession is higher by taking 3s, I suspect that the variance may also be higher (Does anyone have stats on this?). If you must score on the current possession (say to make it a one-possession game) or if you are already up by 15 points, point per possession is not the objective function to be optimized.
     
  17. lookabove

    lookabove Contributing Member

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  18. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    Crazy thing about that is when I play 2K13, Harden is exceptionally efficient from mid range. He excels at hitting wide open 3s and is above average around the rim.

    I've thought this same thing since Yao and Tracy tho. None of our players could shoot from mid range for some reason, it was either alway a 3 pointer or a layup/dunk around the rim. Drove me bananas.
     
  19. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    quoting my own post in case durvasa didn't see. i know it's asking him for more analysis, but i think it'd be really interesting to see if there is any increased correlation when talking about playoff teams/games.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I think there is a balance between efficiency and usage. The great volume scorers are usually efficient enough at mid range that it doesn't hurt their overall efficiency too much. Not every shot can be taken efficiently from rim or at 3 point line. That said, defenses can't deny three pointers/ at rim shots all game. Mid range should be used late in clock after the offense has tried to get an open efficient shot.
     

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