Just having a look at the standings per the road wins vs home losses formula (shout out to heyP). Surprisingly it is showing the Pelicans as a top 8 team, with the Clippers struggling to survive the Thunder charge. GSW 15-2 MEM 14-5 POR 12-5 HOU 16-7 SAS 12-6 DAL 16-8 NOP 9-5 LAX 11-7 PHX 13-9 OKC 10-7 UTH 8-13 DEN 6-12 SAC 6-15 LAL 6-17 MIN 4-18 Clearly the Pellies are taking care of business at home, if they step up and claim a few more road wins, could surprisingly see them in the playoffs this season. Boo to that I say!! Someone head on down to New Orleans and knock them over a few times so we get that lotto pick.
Interesting. Any idea how what this combo has looked like in past seasons and how it compared to actually standings?
At seasons end it will always be fairly accurate in reflecting the final standings! Teams play 41 home and 41 away games, so, implicit in the RW-HL standings are the other wins and losses that are happening. It won't always play out perfectly, a team with an extreme home advantage may indicate higher in the standings than they actually place (ie, Denver only lost 3 home games in 12/13, and would be 1st in RW-HL by %, but finished 3rd overall on record. I don't track it religiously, but have been observing it on the side for a while, and it seems very useful at predicting the bottom half of the playoff teams.
for the season, NBA team home court advantage is the lowest in the last years. Home court advantage is overrated and not as important as long time ago.
Not really sure how your graph relates to this thread? BUT In the West, the top 4 teams have won 80 of 99 games. That's 81%. It was also 81% last season for the top 4 playoff teams. Home court is fairly important in the West in the playoffs. Who cares how many games the Wolves, LAL, etc are winning at home? Simply isn't relevant.
Its not like we only have several terrible teams this year and other years teams are so even. Its simply a trend in the last 30 years that home court advantage is jut not as important as before. The top 4 teams in the west also post about 68% road winning percentage and NONE of the top 8 teams in the west has a road losing record. Check last year's playoff record, I think the no. of road wins in the first round was a record in the NBA history also.
I think his point is that on the whole, home court is gradually losing its advantage over the years, for whatever reasons. Therefore, using home-road split is gradually losing its meaning.
I also from time to time like to look how the standings shake out based on RW vs HL, but there are some deceiving teams because of how their schedules have shaken out thus far. The majority of the teams have pretty equal home and road games so far, but there are a handful that have a disparity of 5 or more one way or the other. Clippers are hard to judge. They have played 9 more home than road games and are about to play 8 straight road games.
I mentioned this point in the other thread. Longevity is not the factor in this era to evaluate a NBA superstar. Generally speaking, you will see players in this ear to reach their peak faster and their career life will be shorter, and teams seems to be over using them more often. Overall all the teams are now younger and able to play through back to back games or tougher road schedule than before. I think we will see less and less great players over 30s and still performing in a high level nowadays. This is also related to the CBA and the length of the contracts, if you are only going to keep the players 3-4 years for sure instead of the old days 6-7 years, well just ride the horse then.
Zach Lowe and Simmons discussed this on the last BS report. They had some theories, but Lowe admitted he hadnt done any in depth research into anything just yet. They talked about ease of travel for road teams helping a lot. Simmons had the idea that it's just easier nowadays for fans of the road teams to get a hold of tickets so the home crowds aren't nearly as loud and that sometimes it's pretty even split between fans.
Exactly the use of checking the 'adjusted' standings on occasion. It's no exact science - if the Clips go on to win 6 of 8 on the road, suddenly they have changed the above standings somewhat. But one might be surprised if that happens? Of playoff teams, only the Bulls and Rockets have better away records than home records at this stage of the season - so despite the 'diminishing' home court advantage in the NBA, it is still there to a degree?
see, you get 5 stars, and I get 1 star when I show this stat mid season. Usually, because it showed we were overrated. funny how it works that way. We are at an unprecedented Riley Stat moment in Rockets history. We are tracking at a 58 win season. Note: you are using a winning percentage. Riley Stat uses a +/-. We are +10 Road wins above Home losses, placing us at #2 seed right now. That's our true Riley Stat ranking....not 4th. The reason we use +/- is because at the end of the season the team with the highest + will ALWAYS be the higher seed...not the team with the highest percentage. no, it is the Pat Riley stat. He is the first to present it to the media.
Thanks heyP. I couldnt find Rileys method of rating it, but i knew he was the master. I will have to update this in a couple weeks
BUMP: Updating this for the stretch run with the 'current' standings of Road wins - home losses. 1. GSW 23-2 2. Memphis 21-7 3. Houston 19-9 4. Portland 15-6 5. SAS 16-7 6. LAX 18-9 7. Dal 20-11 8. OKC 14-9 9. NO 14-11 10. PHX 14-16 11. Utah 13-16 12. Denver 9-19 13. Sac 9-19 14. LAL 7-21 15. Minny 5-24 The positive for the Rockets, in terms of final seeding, is that Portland have 2 extra road games, and that Memphis may have just forfeited todays game (although being 4 games behind makes it hard to catch them). Seeds 3-7 could really fall to anyone still.
I guess I like it because it works in favour as opposed to the actual standings right now, but we have now the worst +/- of the top 7 in the WC! We are giving up more than a 100 PPG average, which pictures a more negative picture. I think we're not in great shape at the moment, not just because of the losses, but also how we've collapsed late in the games lately and start off way too cold. Something needs to change and quick, maybe Howard will be the answer.
I know you and heypartner believe that this is the best predictor of the final results. But there is really no significant differences with the actual standings. The only exception is the Spurs.
I've heard a number of analysts attribute home court advantage going away to instant replay and how referees are criticized for blown calls.
