Cat 4 or 5 and i'm gone. Cat 3 or less and I stay. I'd either stay at my house in clear lake or at my parents house in Angleton, not sure which one would be safer. Anybody? If I leave, I have two large dogs that will have to come with me so that will complicate things.
THe guy that runs that page does a computer show on AM 560 in Beaumont. He is a very interesting guy and usually has some real good tips and computer programs on his show. CK
Looking at the latest discussions, I still think that the models will continue to shift to the east a bit over the coming days. Only one (and it hasn't run since last night) has the south central Texas coast as a target. All the rest are aiming at the upper Texas coast to Louisiana. Given the way models have been this season, they have tended to over compensate for high pressure systems. Katrina models early were all well to the east of New Orleans because of the ridge of high pressure over Texas they predicted would keep the storm further east which it did not. This storm is likely going to bend right around that high pressure system on the northern gulf coast. It will just depend on where that thing is on Wednesday and Thursday as to how much of a northward turn it takes.
That depends a lot on where the storm comes on shore. In a large storm, it won't make much difference (large meaning in actual physical size, not strength).
From this, it looks like there are 3 models that would be trouble for Houston/Galveston area, with the GFS being particularly bad:
maybe i'm color blind...is NOGAPS or GFS that looks like a hook back into Galveson?? which is the one that has it landing furthest south?
Now if this thing hits as a strong Cat 4 it would have a 30 foot storm surge which they(news) talked about after Katrina hit NO. and they said the surge would go all the way to 610 . I live in Clear Lake and it did not even flood during Allison. I wonder how accurate that is. That is alot land to cover.
Damn, this thing looks scary. Gonna be an interesting couple of days while we wait to see where this baby is going.
Allison isn't the model to look at. Storm surge is the problem..not merely rainfall. Here's the link to the entire article: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/metropolitan/3046592
So i'm guessing hiding out at my girlfriends moms house in conroe isn't the best idea.. I might be seeing yall in Austin...
Just watched a news conference with the Galveston brass. The mayor is calling for a voluntary evacuation tomorrow at 2 PM, and they will bus out people who don't have transportation starting Wednesday, and the people CAN take their pets. The mayor looked pretty nervous, and the emergency manager looked like a downright wreck.
good mayor! 88 buses going into galveston to get people out well ahead of time. my wife called and said the winds were around 70mph right now.