Rick Gosselin's final NFL mock draft (4/22) 1. SAN FRANCISCO Needs: QB, OL, DL, WR Alex Smith, QB, Utah Comment: The same agent (Tom Condon) who represented Eli Manning represents Smith. So this could be another draft-and-trade situation, like Manning in 2004. Smith wants to play in Florida where there's no state income tax. That would be an extra $5 million on a $50 million contract. Both the Dolphins and Bucs have an interest in Smith. 2. MIAMI Needs: QB, RB, OT, WR Ronnie Brown, HB, Auburn Comment: The Dolphins need offensive playmakers across the board. If they can't get Smith, the choice would be between the top runner (Brown) and top receiver (Braylon Edwards). The Dolphins have a better chance of getting a quality receiver in subsequent rounds than a quality runner. 3. CLEVELAND Needs: QB, WR, OT, DL Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan Comment: The Browns acquired a veteran quarterback (Trent Dilfer) and runner (Reuben Droughns) this off-season. Now they need a lead receiver for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense. Edwards might be the best player on the draft board. 4. CHICAGO Needs: RB, speed WR, CB, OL depth Carnell Williams, HB, Auburn Comment: The Bears finished 25th in the NFL in rushing. If you can't run the ball in Chicago, you can't win. Cedric Benson and Carnell Williams are two attractive options. Williams has the added dimension of returning kicks. 5. TAMPA BAY Needs: RB, WR, DT, K Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal Comment: Jon Gruden without a quarterback is like Zorro without a mask. Without a triggerman, Gruden lacks a coaching identity � and he doesn't have a trigger in Tampa. The Bucs could wind up with Alex Smith by day's end. 6. TENNESSEE Needs: CB, WR, RT, RB Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (Fla.) Comment: When you play in the AFC South, you'd better be able to cover Peyton Manning's fleet of receivers. The Titans lost starting corners Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson in free agency. Rolle is a merger of need and value here. 7. MINNESOTA Needs: WR, RB, DT, DE Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina Comment: The Vikings will miss Randy Moss. Williamson is the closest receiver to Moss on this draft board at 6-1, 203 with 4.32 40 speed. He averaged 49 yards per his 13 career touchdown catches. 8. ARIZONA Needs: CB, HB, TE, QB Cedric Benson, HB, Texas Comment: With the retirement of Emmitt Smith, there's a gaping hole in the Arizona backfield. The Cardinals might trade for Travis Henry today. If not, the Cardinals can pull another back out of the state of Texas. 9. WASHINGTON Needs: CB, WR, TE, big RB Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia Comment: Joe Gibbs wants a wide receiver badly, but there's better value on the board at cornerback. With Fred Smoot's departure, the Redskins need a walk-in starter. Jones will remind Gibbs of Darrell Green. 10. DETROIT Needs: CB, G, physical WR, S Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas Comment: Bobby Layne, Doug English, Roy Williams � over the years the Lions have loved those Longhorns. Johnson is one of the most gifted defensive playmakers on the board with 11 forced fumbles and nine career interceptions. 11. DALLAS Needs: Pass rush, size on defense, OT, WR Shawne Merriman, DE, Maryland Comment: Bill Parcells wants to get bigger on defense, and that's the determining factor in taking the 270-pound Merriman to line up at strongside linebacker. His arrival should toughen up the run defense. 12. SAN DIEGO Needs: ILB, OL, DE, CB Marcus Spears, DE, LSU Comment: The Chargers managed only 29 sacks last season, the fewest of any playoff team. Spears had nine sacks in 2004 playing in the SEC and also makes the Chargers bigger (307 pounds) against the run. 13. HOUSTON Needs: LB, OT, RB, Pass rusher Demarcus Ware, OLB, Troy Comment: Houston was a pass rusher away from contention. Now the NFL's worst pass rush gets the best pass rusher in the draft. Ware had 11 sacks in 12 games last season. The Texans themselves had only 24 sacks in 16 games. 14. CAROLINA Needs: OT, WR, LB, QB Mike Williams, WR, Southern Cal Comment: The Panthers lost their possession receiver and goal-line force when Muhsin Muhammad left for the Bears in free agency. Williams is a TD maker with 30 in his two years in college. A lack of speed kept him out of the top 10. 15. KANSAS CITY Needs: CB, S, speed WR, OT Thomas Davis, S, Georgia Comment: The Chiefs were one of the NFL's best teams in the 1990s because they played gritty, smash-mouth defense. But that defense has gotten soft this decade, and so have the Chiefs. Davis rattles teeth with his hitting ability. 16. NEW ORLEANS Needs: DT, OT, LB, CB Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn Comment: With the signing of a safety (Dwight Smith) and offensive tackle (Jermane Mayberry) in free agency, the Saints have no glaring holes. They can take the best athlete available. Rogers is a steal at this pick. 17. CINCINNATI Needs: CB, DL, LB speed, OL Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin Comment: The glut of 3-4 defenses (Dallas, San Diego and Houston) and end depth (Carolina and New Orleans) contributed to the slide of James. But he's the best 4-3 end in this draft and a bona fide pass rusher. 18. MINNESOTA Needs: WR, RB, DT, DE David Pollack, DE, Georgia Comment: With Chris Hovan's departure, the Vikings need a high-energy player in their front seven. Pollack is high energy, and the artificial surface would provide ideal traction for his pass-rush skills. 19. ST. LOUIS Needs: RT, Pass rusher, Size on def. Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma Comment: Marc Bulger was sacked 41 times for a league-high 302 yards in losses. Without pass protection, the Greatest Show on Turf is a carny act. Orlando Pace is a Pro Bowler on the left side. Brown is the draft's best right tackle. 20. DALLAS Needs: Pass rush, size on defense, OT, WR Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern Comment: Parcells wanted to get two defensive front-seven players, but that board emptied in the teens. The Cowboys will look to trade down. Failing there, the Cowboys will reach for the next best defensive lineman on his board. 21. JACKSONVILLE Needs: CB, G, OT, Speed WR Matt Jones, WR, Arkansas Comment: The Jaguars have a talented but slow offense with Jimmy Smith and Fred Taylor getting up in the years. Jones is one of the most exciting and explosive athletes on the board with his 4.38 speed. The Jaguars dare to be bold. 22. BALTIMORE Needs: DT, OT, WR, LB Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma Comment: What is it with the Ravens? No matter where they draft, a good player always slides to them. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed also were drafted in the 20s. Clayton will be a preseason NFL Rookie of the Year candidate. 23. SEATTLE Needs: Defense, WR, RB, G Alex Barron, OT, Florida State Comment: The Seahawks have spent their money in the off-season rebuilding the NFL's 26th defense. The signing of Andre Dyson eases the need at corner. Look for the Seahawks to take the best player on the board at this point. 24. GREEN BAY Needs: LB, S, OL, QB Marlin Jackson, CB/S, Michigan Comment: The Packers have long been of the belief that you draft big-school players who know how to play in the cold. An All-America cornerback from Michigan certainly qualifies. Jackson makes the secondary bigger and tougher. 25. WASHINGTON Needs: CB, WR, TE, big RB Jason Campbell, QB, Auburn Comment: Joe Gibbs was embarrassed by the offensive play of the Redskins in 2004 (30th in the NFL) and wants to overhaul the passing game. He traded for Santana Moss for speed, now he drafts a quarterback who can get Moss the ball. 26. OAKLAND Needs: CB, speed at LB, DE, OL Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska Comment: Since Al Davis took over the Raiders in their AFL years back in the early 1960s, this franchise has been built on speed, speed and more speed. Washington is the fastest cornerback in the draft with a 4.29 40. 27. ATLANTA Needs: DE, S, CB, WR Shaun Cody, DT, Southern Cal Comment: The good teams load up on defensive linemen, and the Falcons are now a good team. Cody is an inside pass rusher with 20 career sacks who can also swing outside and be a run-stopping end. 28. SAN DIEGO Needs: ILB, OL, DE, CB Roddy White, WR, UAB Comment: San Diego's leading wide receiver last season caught only 47 passes. The Chargers need some help for tight end Antonio Gates and halfback LaDainian Tomlinson. White averaged 20 yards per catch last season. 29. INDIANAPOLIS Needs: CB, S, MLB, DT Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma Comment: The offense is Super Bowl ready. The defense isn't. The Colts need more size and more playmakers on that side of the ball and figure to draft three of them in the first day. Pool intercepted seven passes in 2003. 30. PITTSBURGH Needs: RT, TE, WR, interior OL Heath Miller, TE, Virginia Comment: The top two tight ends on the Steelers combined for 16 catches in 2004. Pittsburgh needs to get Ben Roethlisberger a possession receiver. Miller set the ACC record with 144 catches by a tight end. 31. PHILADELPHIA Needs: Depth at OT, LB, DT, RB Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi Comment: The Eagles have no holes on the roster, which gives them the luxury of drafting the best player on their board. Spencer can be an upgrade from Hank Fraley in 2006. This is the one team with the luxury of patience. 32. NEW ENGLAND Needs: ILB, youth on defense, WR, DL Marcus Johnson, G/T, Mississippi Comment: Like the Eagles, the Patriots can draft for depth. Johnson can be an upgrade from Brandon Gorin at right tackle in 2006. He can also play guard. No team in the NFL covets versatility in its players like the Patriots. TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK 43. NY GIANTS Needs: WR, LB, DE, CB Justin Tuck, DE, Notre Dame Comment: Michael Strahan is 34 this season and a new pass rusher must be developed. Tuck set a Notre Dame record with 131/2 sacks in 2003. He had 241/2 career sacks and is skipping his senior season to turn pro. 47. NY JETS Needs: DT, RB, OL, CB Stanford Routt, CB, Houston Comment: Jets coach Herman Edwards was a big corner in the NFL himself, so he likes size in his secondary. Routt goes 6-1, 193 and is a former Conference USA sprint champion. He runs a 4.27 40. What's not to like? 55. BUFFALO Needs: RB, blocking TE, S Alex Smith, TE, Stanford Comment: Smith has the hands to be a factor in the passing game, having caught 52 passes as a senior, and the body to be a factor in the running game at 6-4, 258 pounds. He caught 107 career passes at Stanford. 56. DENVER Needs: CB, G, big WR, S Vincent Jackson, WR, Northern Colorado Comment: The Broncos won't even have to fly their top draft pick in. He can drive up from his home in Colorado Springs. Jackson is 6-4, 241 and runs a 4.46. He returns punts and kickoffs and averaged 20 yards per catch in his career.
Let's total it up: 1. hit 2. hit 3. hit 4. miss 5. miss 6. miss 7. hit 8. miss 9. miss 10. miss 11. miss 12. miss 13. (trade - but did not get right player or match player to team, so - miss) 14. miss 15. miss 16. miss see 13 17. miss 18. miss 19. miss 20. miss 21. hit 22. hit 23. miss 24. miss 25. hit 26. (trade - miss) 27. miss 28. miss 29. miss 30. hit 31. miss 32. miss So he hits about 8 out of 32 or 25%. To be fair though the unpredictable freefall of Rodgers & Detroits bizarre pick of WIlliams screwed up his analysis. Also he scored a lot of near misses -where he was just off by one. It just goes to show how much guesswork is involved with Mock drafts.
Yeah, your right. I compared some of the picks and compensating for the ripple effect, he did get the position pick right alot. Sometimes the personnel was different because his pick went higher. This was the hardest draft in a while to call. After the first dozen or so players it was anybody's game. IMO almost everyone wanted to trade down because there was not enough value for the price they are going to have to pay.
