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Remembering When...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Jun 23, 2017.

  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    ...half the board freaked out because Daryl Morey passed on Jeremy Tyler in the 2nd round and drafted Chandler Parsons.
     
  2. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    ...more than half the board freaked out because Daryl Morey passed on Kawhi Leonard in the 1st round and drafted Mook Morris
     
  3. red5rocket

    red5rocket Member
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    No
     
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  4. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Yep, of course Kawhi was projected to be a lottery pick and not a 2nd round pick. There is a large group on this board that annually freak out wen DM doesn't draft their favorite 2nd round scrub.
     
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  5. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    Since 2008, Rockets 2nd round picks

    Joey Dorsey - Bust
    Maarty Leunen - bust
    Jermaine Taylor - Bust
    Sergio Lllull - Puss
    Chase Bud - Ok I guess?
    Chandler Portions - Diva
    Furkan Ademir - Bust
    Isiah Canaan - Bust
    Nick Johnson- Bust
    Montrez Harrel - TBD
    Chinuanauan Onauanauanu - TBD
    Chow Key - $$$$

    I mean look at this list. I see busts everywhere along with p*****s like Llulz and divas like Portions.
     
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  6. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    To be fair, you can't call second round picks "bust" because they aren't supposed to have much of a chance to be anything. Marcus Morris was a bust being a mid first round pick who we later unloaded for a second round pick.
     
  7. skroodup25

    skroodup25 Member

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    Aaron Brooks
    Carl Landry (not sure if a morey pick but I think so)
     
  8. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
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    It's amazing how slanted this is. First of all, there has never been a bust in the second round. To be a bust, there must be expectations that you will perform. If you expect a second rounder to stick in the league, your expectations are wildly unrealistic.

    Matt Korman wrote a really good article about the second round that I highly recommend you check out here:

    https://the-cauldron.com/the-2nd-round-and-misuse-of-probability-402639df1038

    But the most important takeaway for you to consider is this:

    [​IMG]

    As you can see, only 16.7% of second rounders over this ten year period even lasted in the NBA for at least 3 years. So to call of those guys busts is nuts. They're literally not supposed to stick in the NBA. Roughly half of the players taken in the second round play less than 3 years in the NBA. And only 2.4% of second rounders became All-Stars. Meaning there is basically one all-star taken in the second round for every 70 picks. (that's 2 and 1/3rd of a draft).

    Now let's look at Morey's track record. I'm taking it back a year further than you did because Carl Landry was a Morey pick. I am not including Chinanu or Zhou Qi because it's too early to evaluate them.

    2007: Carl Landry (still in the NBA), Brad Newly (never stuck)
    2008: Joey Dorsey (5 seasons in the NBA), Marty Leunen (never stuck)
    2009: Jermaine Taylor (3 seasons in NBA), Sergio Llull (one of the best players in Europe), Chase Budinger (7 years in NBA)
    2010: no picks
    2011: Chandler Parsons (still in the NBA and on second max contract)
    2012: Furkan Adelmir (1 season)
    2013: Isaiah Canaan (Still in NBA. 5 seasons)
    2014: Nick Johnson (1 season)
    2015: Montrezl Harrell (just completed second season in NBA and was rotation player. It's safe to say he'll be in the league for more than three years)

    So in the 8 years listed above we drafted 7 (out of 12) second round picks that were in the top 16.7% of results in that they have had or will have careers that exceed 3 years and only 3 players we picked in the second round ranked in the bottom 26.1% of players who never made the league. One of those guys is Sergio Llull and it's very clear he could be an NBA rotation guy. He just chooses to remain in Spain.

    It looks to me like Morey is absolutely amazing at drafting in the second round. I think your idea of success in drafting in the second round is just completely unrealistic and impossible for ANY general manager to achieve.
     
    Pat likes this.

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