Projecting our Playoff Pen

Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, and either Morton or McCullers

Multi-inning or low leverage: McHugh, Peacock, Harris

High leverage or setup men: Devenski, Rondon, Giles, TBD trade acquisition (Iglesias, Hand, Treinen, or Britton)

Closer: Morton or McCullers (or Verlander or Cole in a game 7).

Smith and Sipp would be the odd men out.

I just don’t see them thrusting Whitley (or C Perez) into the playoff pressure cooker. Not with so many other good options available.

 

The season goes by pretty fast . If you don't stop and look around once in a while you could miss it.

 

At this rate, Keuchel will not be starting in the playoffs... unless there's an injury to one of the other guys.

Hinch has done a better job of not overusing Devo and Peacock thus far... hopefully their arms stay fresh enough come playoff time.

 

If Cionel Perez sticks with the team until September and beyond, show good stuff and puts up good numbers, one would have to think that he is in the mix.

Same could be said for Forrest Whitley, who is progressing towards a September call up. Whitley might have rely more on stuff than numbers to make the post season squad.

Injuries might force the issue as well, in their favor.

Trade for a high quality bullpen arm is a strong possibility as well, which make Perez's or Whitley's effort to make the post season squad more of a long shot.

 

If you look at Keuchel’s underlying numbers he is very close to the same guy he was last year. He’s not the ace he was in 2015 but he will definitely be in the playoff rotation if he is healthy. I could see him getting game 4 instead of game 3, but if he’s healthy he’s a lock.

 

Honestly, aside from Devo and Rondon I can't say for certainty any of our current relievers will be in the pen.

I think it's a lock all 7 of our starters will be on the roster if healthy, everybody else could pitch better, or worse, or simply be traded. McHugh is proving he can up his game as a reliever.

 

You can't take McCullers or Morton out of the 4 man pitching rotation the way they've been pitching so far this year if they are both healthy. Keuchel can't be used out of the pen either because he seems to get lit up during the first inning he pitches before settling in. Peacock and McHugh would be your long relievers out of the pen.

There is still a lot of season left so anything can happen between now and then though.

 

I agree with Snake- Keuchel is in the rotation in the playoffs.
I have zero desire to see him in the bullpen. His stuff isn't good enough and he nibbles. You don't want him coming in to try to do loogy stuff and have him walk a guy on 5 pitches and throw gasoline on the inning. No thanks.

I agree though that he's your game 4 guy. Morton is likely your game 3 guys and LMJ is your bullpen ace. The guy you absolutely count on to take you home when you have a 5-3 lead after 6 in game 3 as a for example. Morton could do it- but I think LMJ does it better.

 

If the season ended today, Verlander and Cole are locks. The last one or two spots are Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton. I think the decision is less about who is worse as a starter than it is who is better as a long reliever. I think Keuchel gets the nod as the starter and Morton and/or McCullers join the pen. A pen of Lance, and/or Charlie, Mchugh and Brad plus Rondon/Harris/Giles/Devenski might get crowded with too much talent.

 

Starters: Verlander, Cole, Morton, McCullers
Long Relievers: Peacock, McHugh
Relievers: Devo, Rondon, Sipp
Closer: To be determined
Sub Starter or if someone gets rocked in the first 2 innings:Keuchel

Now if Keuchel gets his act together, then I don't know who the starters will be.

 

And if you look at the other pitchers in the rotation, he’s not as good.

I’m not saying he can’t be an mlb starter... but on this team, he’s clearly only the 5th best thus far... and if he continues this trend, he won’t start in the playoffs.

 

If you don’t trust Keuchel to be in the bullpen, in high leverage situations, there’s absolutely no logic in desiring him to start a game.

 

Not true. A walk in the 8th inning with guys on 1st and 3rd to the first guy faced is a lot more painful than nibbling on the 2 hole hitter in the first inning.

 

Great pitchers, with great stuff, translate to all parts of the game... with the best pitchers, with the most pitches, durable arms, and repeatable stuff being tabbed as starters.

Keuchel isn’t trustworthy in early parts of the game. If he gives up early runs in the playoffs, he’s unlikely to last more than 1-2 innings.

He does have playoff experience... but he’s going to need to go on a nice extended run to be a starter.

I agree he’s not ideal for the bullpen either. He may not make the playoff roster if he’s not going to be a starter.

 

I don't think there's any way you prioritize a long-reliever in the playoffs and put a better player there instead of as a starter. It was a bit different last year because our pitching staff was a mess. We had a long-reliever starting (Peacock), McCullers coming off an injury, and Morton being a bit of an unknown. And then the whole bullpen decided to implode at once - so the starter-turned-long-reliever became more important - but it was a pure fluke. If the bullpen does a reasonable job, those long-relievers are basically wasted.

With Peacock and McHugh in the pen already as long-relievers, and Devo and Rondon in the pen, I don't think they need to be focusing so much there. Just put your 4 best starters out there and then fill the rest of the innings as needed. If Keuchel isn't one of them, so be it - but it's better than putting a mediocre starter out there, getting behind, and then having to claw your way back with the long-reliever when you could have just started the better guy in the first place.

 

I agree with that last sentence totally and completely. I also think LMJ (and to a lesser extent CFM) are perfect for the bullpen. That's why it makes sense to me to roster Keuchel as a starting pitcher and send him out in game 4 (or don't roster him at all I guess). That's 3 starts throughout the entirety of the playoffs (2 if we sweep the first round series- knock on wood).

It's not like he's terrible or a lost cause, but I'd rather have Lance ready to go in games 1, 2 and 3 in high leverage situations protecting a lead if necessary while having Keuchel tabbed to start game 4. That's our best chance to win, imo. I guess if you don't get into a situation where you use Lance in the first three games, and he can go on more or less full rest in game 4, then I'm good with him starting that game. But, in the playoffs, you absolutely play to win todays game and worry about tomorrow tomorrow, and I think Keuchel in game 4 freeing up LMJ gives us the best shot for that.

 

So we need to bench anyone that is too reliant on a slider during the World Series...?

 

It's not about that necessarily, to my way of thinking. What it's about is does LMJ being available in games 1, 2 and 3 give you a better chance of winning games 1, 2 and 3. If the answer is demonstrably yes, and your chances of winning game 4 are only slightly less with Keuchel starting than with LMJ, then LMJ goes to the bullpen. We aren't constructing the best scenario to win game 4, we are talking about the best way to win 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 7, which is a slightly different question, imo.

 

But if you have McHugh, Peacock, Devo, and Rondon all being solid bullpen pieces, does LMJ really help that much in those other games? I'd rather rely on the actual bullpen to do bullpen work and give us the best chance to win game 4. The need for LMJ/Morton in the bullpen last year arose only because (a) we had two rotation questionmarks in Morton & Peacock and (b) the whole bullpen imploded. If either of those doesn't happen, I don't think LMJ or Morton are ever put in the position of having to rescue the team.