Predicting 2015 first round draft flops

Discussion in '2018 NBA Draft' started by basketballholic, Jun 5, 2015.

  1. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    14,140
    Likes Received:
    1,618
    1. Devin Booker - he'll be a lottery pick. But he's slightly undersized, slow, and not nearly athletic enough to be great. He'll wind up being like Mike Dunleavy/AnthonyMorrow, etc. A good to great one-dimensional spot-up shooter.

    2. Sam Dekkar - nice kid. Probably going to go lottery. No great NBA skill. He's a scrapper. Will probably have a long enough career scrapping for a multiplicity of NBA teams off their bench. Maybe an occasional starter. Nothing more.

    3. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - another great athlete that just doesn't know how to play the game of basketball.

    4. RJ Hunter - I like the kid but he's just too slow-footed and weak and his release is too low and not quick enough. He'll last a few seasons on a rookie contract and underperform.

    5. Montrezl Harrell - Just another lackluster power forward in a sea of power forwards. He'll make a few $$$ and wind up out of the league in a relative short period of time.

    6. Kelly Oubre - underperformed in college. Has all the talent in the world. Don't think he'll harness it long-term. Think he gets drafted high, gets his rookie deal and then slops through his career constantly underachieving.

    7. Guillermo Hernangomez - meh. Just another big lug. Nothing special. 23" standing vertical and 25.5" max vertical means he's essentially ground-bound. Just another dime-a-dozen backup big. (I wouldn't take this guy in the first round no matter what team I was drafting for.)

    8. Chris McCullough - 6'9" 199 lb, power forward with motor issues. And he's fixing to get drafted in the first round to play with the real big boys. R U Kidding me? #flop

    9. Christian Wood - another young teenager, underdeveloped power forward weighing the grand sum of 216 lbs. At best he's a 3-4 year project. And there just ain't a lot of room in the league for project. Somebody will probably draft him in the first round because he's almost 7 feet tall and long and skinny. #flop

    =============================================


    For added good measure here's you some projected second round flops:

    1. Harrison boys - both of them - not good enough, don't have the right attitude or mentality, won't make it. Draftexpress has us projected to take Andrew Harrison at #32. Will never happen.

    2. Nikola Milutinov - not good enough, a big man that constantly gets beat by better bigs in Europe

    3. Jordan Mickey - another undersized, underskilled big

    4. Dakari Johnson - another ground-bound big lug with a very limited skill set.

    5. Cliff Alexander - blew off his freshman season at KU. Has personal problems. And is an undersized power post big.

    6. Michael Qualls - probably the best athlete in the draft. Almost James White athletic. And about the same basketball processing ability as James White. Can't think. Can only run out and play. #flop





    This might not be all the flops. These are the guys I've looked at and decided that they won't amount to anything long-term in the NBA. There's undoubtedly more.
     
  2. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Messages:
    4,899
    Likes Received:
    748
    Calling anyone in a draft whose not a top 5 picks a flop?

    Come on.

    Almost none of those players you mentioned are even projected to be a top 10 pick.

    Your chance of getting a good player decrease dramatically after the first 6-8 picks.

    However, being said that, you are totally wrong about RJ Hunter, this guy could be one of the best shooters in the NBA for the next decade.
     
  3. Sooty

    Sooty Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2007
    Messages:
    869
    Likes Received:
    129
    Clint Capela.
     
  4. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2000
    Messages:
    4,768
    Likes Received:
    280
    Are you bobbythegreat?
     
  5. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2000
    Messages:
    8,090
    Likes Received:
    943
    It is known.
     
  6. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    14,140
    Likes Received:
    1,618

    Yes, he could be. But I'm saying he won't be.
     
  7. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2000
    Messages:
    4,768
    Likes Received:
    280
    I don't think that Kaminsky guy will make it. Good shooter so he has a chance but he will need to bulk up. IMO he isn't going to be able to score on folks in the NBA like he did in college. He may be a bench player but that is his ceiling IMO.

    I agree with Dekker off of the list. Don't think he will make it at all.
     
  8. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    12,821
    Likes Received:
    2,198
    Yeah to be a bust you should be drafted at least top20.
    But for the shake of this thread.
    Oubre will never get it. Tyus jones will be out of the league in 6 years tops. Wcs will be a bust for being drafted top5 and will always be just a role player. Neither hunter nor booker will be anything special. Turner will never fix his walking probem and Looney will be a huge bust. Mudiay will be better than Russel.

    This thread will be probably be bumped in a couple of years and I will be wrong in all of them lol.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    12,821
    Likes Received:
    2,198
    Forgot to mention the biggest bust of them all. Porginzis.
     
  10. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    14,140
    Likes Received:
    1,618
    I didn't say "bust". I said "flop". A flop is a player that underperforms their draft status and winds up being a middling NBA player.

    The idea of this thread is to shed light on a bunch of guys that are going to become multi-millionaires at the end of the month but do not have the skill level to earn it.

    Instead of debating over the meaning of flop, just post your list of flops.
     
  11. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    12,821
    Likes Received:
    2,198
    Isnt my list good enough?? I included 1/3 of the top 15. Lol And you cant even be a flop in the second round. Most never even come over.
     
  12. NicktheBrick

    NicktheBrick Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Messages:
    413
    Likes Received:
    22
    It's a very good list with a lot of thought behind it. I'm going to add Justice Winslow, who people are projecting as if 2 inches taller and with a better shot and handle than he actually has. Stanley Johnson will be at least twice the player Winslow will be, Winslow a 6th man, at best, on a decent squad.
     
  13. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    14,140
    Likes Received:
    1,618

    Wow. That's strong and you'll probably stand alone on it.

    I do have questions about Winslow's size. It appears to me right now that he's best suited to play SG as opposed to SF. But I can't call him a flop at this point. I see qualities I really like especially defensively and his handle breaking down other wings. But I do have lingering question marks about his size.

    I've got Stanley Johnson on my questionable list. Not sold that he's going to be great. Think he'll probably wind up having a similar career to Tony Allen with the emphasis being on the defensive side.
     
  14. basketballholic

    basketballholic Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    14,140
    Likes Received:
    1,618
    After watching extensive video off RJ Hunter, I'm changing my mind about him. His release isn't low. It's quick. I'm taking him off the flop list. I'm not sold on him. But he has an elite NBA skill, the #1 skill that a player needs if he is just going to have one skill. I am not longer convinced he's a flop. And if we move #32 up to a first rounder, I'd be intrigued with drafting him.


    Another player I am coming off of as far as being a flop is Jordan Mickey. He is an elite rebounder. I think he's got a chance.
     
  15. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2010
    Messages:
    19,200
    Likes Received:
    556
    Jahlil Okafor
     
  16. PointZero

    PointZero Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2015
    Messages:
    149
    Likes Received:
    8
    Tyus Jones = Bobby Hurley/Jordan Farmar.

    Like Bobby Hurley from Duke, Tyus is another NCAA tournament darling who won't translate to the NBA.
     
  17. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2012
    Messages:
    3,051
    Likes Received:
    437
    Haha Sam Decker, Chris Mcullough and Christian Wood are my three favorite
     
  18. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2000
    Messages:
    17,986
    Likes Received:
    1,716
    I prefer debating over the meaning of flop.

    I think your meaning is wrong. I think flop... and think bust. While I recognize bust is an even stronger flop, i still view flop on the bust spectrum.

    You still project a lot of your guys as flops to have decent NBA careers. Which is the exact opposite of a flop.

    I'm also not sure you recognize the true actual probabilistic result from draft picks. Here's a study for example: http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

    Note how only picks 1-5 are "supposed" to get you a star.
    Picks 6-10 get you a solid player, a long-time starter if you will.
    Picks 11 and on gets you role players at best.

    There are a ton of other articles and research on expected value by draft pick slot that all say similar things.

    Your thread isn't about flops, it's about second tier and below players you think won't be good.
     
  19. Dubious

    Dubious Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2001
    Messages:
    15,862
    Likes Received:
    760
    His thread is about him, predicting the unpredictable, making assertions with risk, discounting a human beings dreams and hard work, from Youtube videos.
     
  20. RedIsen

    RedIsen Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2008
    Messages:
    497
    Likes Received:
    39
    Interesting list. I'm not sure how Devin Booker is slightly undersized for a SG at 6'6 and slow if he posted the best lane agility and shuttle run times at the combine.

    To be fair, Hurley was in a near fatal car accident his rookie season and wasn't really the same player afterwards.
     
Loading...

Share This Page