Poll: _ Man Playoff Rotation, + How Rox Depth Can Overcome Dubs "Star Power" to Win it All

The reason that rotations shorten in the playoffs is so coaches can focus more on strategy and less on balancing player minutes. I’m of the belief, however, that with a very deep team and players playing less minutes, the team becomes so much better that it far outweighs the play of a shorter rotation with “better strategy”.

I'm not discounting strategy by any means; personally I think the assistant coaches (or even a “minutes coach”) should be assigned the task of balancing minutes, with D’antoni focusing on strategy, since I would agree it seems difficult to balance the two especially in a playoff atmosphere. But the huge advantages of less player minutes and a larger rotation should not be overlooked.

There was a very comprehensive analytical article posted awhile back (I forgot the name of the article and the thread, and can’t seem to find it now) that went into all the reasons why deep teams are better when they play larger rotations vs. shorter rotations / how much better players become when they play less minutes. The article detailed how over the years good NBA teams have been shifting towards depth with less minutes and basically that it’s the way of the future (insert Aviator.gif). If someone knows the article I’m referring to, please share so I can add it to this post!

Here’s a few reasons why deep teams are better when players play less minutes.
It’s simple… players have much MORE ENERGY (both physically and mentally), which leads to the following:

* Faster pace, opposing defense has less time to get set up and react
= better offense/harder to defend
= better defense since scoring is more frequent and our defense has time to get set up.

* More mentally aware/alert/locked in; better communication, higher bball IQ
= more efficient on offense, less turnovers.
= smarter on the defensive end.

* Better/more aggressive defense overall due to high energy
= more steals/forced turnovers.
= worse shooting for opposing team.
= more fast breaks and better offense.

Plus…

* Fresh legs from less minutes over the course of many games
= much better shooting.

* More players cycling on and off of the floor; constant changing dynamics of play
= much more offensive and defensive versatility.
= harder to defend/plan against; by the time adjustments are made the dynamics have shifted again.
= major headaches for opposing players and coaches.

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As far as rotations and players minutes per game, here’s some things I personally would like to see going forward:

1. 11-12 man rotation every game (the only time it would be 11 is if Nene is resting or Johnson is resting/gets squeezed out).

2. At least 2 of Harden/Paul/Gordon on the floor at all times (assuming Gordon is 100% healthy, otherwise less minutes).

3. Harden and Paul are the only players to exceed 30 minutes, and other than Gordon and Capela, players rarely exceed 25.

4. There is a “true center” on the floor at all times (in most games/matchups); I think we are a better rebounding and defensive team as well as much more efficient on offense and harder to defend with the center pick and roll threat. Therefore, both Nene and Wright would share the minutes that Capela is not on the floor (if Nene is resting, Wright takes all of these minutes).

5. Tucker continues to start, with Anderson coming off of the bench and averaging about 15 minutes per game (unless he puts together 3+ great shooting games, then consider raising by a few minutes).

6. Ariza and Mbah a Moute share around even minutes (ex. 22/22). If one of the two were to average more minutes, I'd want it to be Mbah a Moute since I think he is more efficient, faster/better on the break, and a better defender.

7. Green averages around 10-15 minutes per game and not less.

8. Once Johnson becomes acclimated to the team, his minutes are reduced to 15 or less.

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Very Rough Minutes per Game Estimation:
(minutes should obviously vary based on opposing teams/matchups, if certain player(s) of ours are hot, certain lineups are playing exceptionally well together, etc.)

Idea #1 (Harden/Paul/Gordon staggered minutes, true center always on floor):

Harden - 35
Paul - 33
Gordon - 28
Capela - 28

Ariza - 20
Mbah a Moute - 22
Tucker - 22
Anderson - 14
Green - 10
Johnson - 8

Nene - 10
Wright - 10

Idea #2 (slightly more balanced attack minutes-wise; goes against some of what I said above):

Harden - 35
Paul - 33
Gordon - 25
Capela - 25

Ariza - 22
Mbah a Moute - 22
Tucker - 22
Anderson - 15
Green - 10
Johnson - 8

Nene - 12
Wright - 11

 

I originally typed up these minutes when Anderson was in his slump. He's been playing a lot better lately (I think in large part due to coming off the bench and it being post-trade deadline). I'm not able to edit the original post, but these days my very rough minutes guestimation would look more like:

Harden - 35
Paul - 33
Gordon - 25
Capela - 26

Ariza - 20
Mbah a Moute - 22
Tucker - 22
Anderson - 19
Green - 9
Johnson - 9

Nene - 10
Wright - 10

I agree with what you said about playoff minutes being earned now based on play, but I'm hoping when everyone is healthy MDA will experiment with 11 or 12 man rotations and lower, more "balanced" minutes (although I know he probably won't lol).

 

The point isn't to assign specific minute counts (which is why I said they're a very rough estimation); I agree with you that minutes depend on who's playing well and matchups; the playoffs is a coaching chess match. But I don't think we should try to match up with other teams, they should match up with us (which I recall MDA saying in an interview recently). If most of our guys are playing well/roughly equal, why not play 11 or 12 instead of 9 or 10? The advantages seem to vastly outweigh the disadvantages. The reason I made this thread is just to spread that idea around.