"Great teams avoid close games" or something along those lines was said by Morey and others and point differential could probably be a good stat to measure a contender. I've seen the top teams: Warriors & Hawks have quite some games where they just tore teams apart. We've had a few, but none lately and the Heat were the last one team we beat good. So let's look at point differential: Hawks & Toronto in the East are the only impressive ones with +6.8 and +5.3 respectively. In the West you have #1 Warriors with a very impressive 10.9, #2 Blazers with 6.3, then we have Clippers and Dallas 6.2 and 6.0 respectively. Based on +/- the West standings would be: 1) Warriors 2) Blazers 3) Clippers 4) Mavs 5) Spurs 6) Grizzlies 7) Rockets 8) Suns What you guys think? I think it's not saying that much, though it is a sign in the case of the top teams (Warriors & Blazerrs) since they have a low OPP and great defensive numbers all around. Also in our and the Suns case I think it says something, since we have not had a hard schedule and we are supposed to be contenders. The Suns are just not that good, so the +2.3 is a sign of their mediocrity. Discuss
Over the last 10 games, the Rockets margin is +5.64 and that includes the shellacking by GS. Lots of injuries and changes.
I am a believer of point differential. I don't have time to look. But I think historically, point differential has predicted final results better than any single statistical number. This is why I don't think teams like Grizzlies and the Mavs are true contenders. That said, you have to put injuries into consideration. The Rockets and the Thunder had some early key injuries.
By SRS, which takes into account point differential and strength of schedule, the Rockets are eight in the NBA. http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015.html
We're still not a complete team until we have Terrance Jones and whatever player(s) Morey adds before the deadline. No point worrying about point differential yet.
Our bigs being so bad at FTs holds that down a bit. When we are up and they start hacking Dwigth, or Smith or Dorsey etc, they close the gap some. DD
Remember the Rockets had a lot of injuries for a good chunk of the season. The Rockets were winning a lot of close games on effort and hustle. That's why their point differential is where it is right now.
point differential shows consistency, and consistent teams are most likely to win a 7 game series. so... i guess it is a stat worth looking at.
I'm also a believer in point differential as a contender measure. This team is not quite living up to it's potential. Harden is a beast no doubt, but Dwight needs to be more of a presence and Ariza needs to be able to step up if Harden is not getting the calls or having a cold night. We can't always rely on Harden putting up 45.
Partly yes and partly not. The reason why I say not is that often in blowouts, teams put in their reserves and back ups. If GSW were winning in a blowout and put in their bench vs any other teams bench, the lead will only rise or at worst stay the same because they are such a well coached team with a deep bench. When the Rockets are in a blowout win and put in their bench, the lead often goes spiralling down mainly because the Rockets have no structure without Harden due to poor coaching and find it tough to keep up with other benches. Come playoff time, rotations are usually 8 deep. A better sign of a contender is the point differential of the starting unit vs any other starting unit.
Based on win % on Road Ws / Home Ls the West is: 1. GSW (15-1) 2. Portland (12-4) 3. Memphis (13-5) 4. Dallas (15-6) 5. Houston (14-7) 6. SAS (11-6) 7. NOP (8-5) 8. LAC (10-7) Spoiler Overall, it's 1 Golden State 2 Atlanta 3 Portland 4 Memphis 5 Dallas 6 Washington 7 Houston 8 Phoenix 9 San Antonio 10 New Orleans 11 Toronto 12 Chicago 13 L.A. Clippers 14 Milwaukee 15 Oklahoma City 16 Cleveland 17 Miami 18 Orlando 19 Detroit 20 Denver 21 Brooklyn 22 Indiana 23 Utah 24 Charlotte 25 Sacramento 26 L.A. Lakers 27 Philadelphia 28 Boston 29 Minnesota 30 New York
Terrance Jones is NOT the savior of the Rockets. Plus, even if he comes back, it'll take him half a season to really get back into rhythm. I think this post is very interesting and I'm a firm believer of point differential. Injuries aside, great teams win all the games they should win and those are the teams that usually go deep into the playoffs and eventually win a ring.
Starting one of Tarik Black and Jason Terry and Isaiah Canaan for 20+ games is not good for your point differential...particularly against weak teams where you have an opportunity to run it up.
I wouldn't think too hard about the point differential for the full season, given the injury to Howard. However, I do find it to be a pretty strong indicator of a team's true strength. I would say that #7 in the West is a pretty fair estimate for the strength of the Rockets with Dwight and Bev only playing 3 in 4 games. The only problem? That doesn't tell you much at all about the strength of a fully healthy team. Over the last ten games, the Rockets are 5th in the West in PD, but against a very weak sched, which again makes it hard to compare to other squads. It's somewhat encouraging, though, that during a stretch of effort most of us would call "disappointing", the Rockets are maintaining the record (7-3) and PD (+5) befitting a solid playoff lock.
I think point differential is a pretty good indicator of future success.. .. but like any stat, doesn't mean anything one way or another. For a team that lost basically every game in the playoffs last year down to the wire, learning how to close out tight games is equally important. I think the best "stat" would be some kind of Quality Win stat that looks at each game and takes into account strength of schedule, injuries on both teams, home-road, if new players have joined the team recently, etc. That's virtually impossible for a computer to do, though...
That was the Warriors downfall last season. No bench. Whomever followed the Warriors last season knew they had a very good starting 5 with Barnes and Green off the bench. Warriors fans even had a tag #Fullsquad for the meaning of this. About the Rockets, I really believe they at least have a chance to compete with any team in a 7 game serious if they are focused in. Both Rockets stars are well known to zone out at any given time and moment. Both are not well disciplined and gets frustrated(Howard-lack of mental toughness). That may explain why the Rockets point differential are lower than some other teams because both Rockets star DO NOT bring 'it' every single game.
This comment makes sense. There are quite a few games that the Rockets played the whole 4th Q as garbage time and our bench guys played like garbage also.
