Peter Navarro: Trump's two big wins for farmers, manufacturers, workers

Yet they are more than offset by his tariffs on China.

Next.

DD

 

...

 

next to the trump tax, aka tariff, the TPP withdrawal has been Trump's stupidest economic move


The original TPP would have boosted U.S. exports and economic growth. This should create more jobs and prosperity for the 12 countries involved. It will increase exports by $305 billion per year by 2025. U.S. exports would increase by $123.5 billion. It would benefit the machinery, auto, plastics, and agriculture industries.


It would have increased exports by removing 18,000 tariffs placed on U.S. exports to the other countries. The United States has already withdrawn 80% of these tariffs on imports. The TPP would have evened the playing field.


The agreement would have added $223 billion a year to incomes of workers in all the countries, with $77 billion going to U.S. workers.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-trans-pacific-partnership-3305581

the dizzying height of stupidity

had US stay w the TPP, US farmers would still have access to sell soy products to the largest soy market in the world. by withdrawing from the TPP, us farmers have lost that market, necessitating a multi-billion $ hand out from the US taxpayers

 

Yeah, I literally stopped reading there.

 

WSJ yesterday:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-middle-class-economic-progress-11569786435

Trump’s Middle-Class Economic Progress
A new study indicates median incomes are rising far faster than they did under Bush or Obama.
By
Stephen Moore
Sept. 29, 2019 3:47 pm ET

President Trump’s critics can’t deny that the economy is doing well, so instead they insist all the benefits have gone to the rich and large corporations. “America’s middle class is under attack,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren asserted in her presidential campaign announcement last December.

The latest data from the Census Bureau monthly surveys tell a different story. Real median household income—the amount earned by those in the very middle—hit $65,084 (in 2019 dollars) for the 12 months ending in July. That’s the highest level ever and a gain of $4,144, or 6.8%, since Mr. Trump took office. By comparison, during 7½ years under President Obama—starting from the end of the recession in June 2009 through January 2017—the median household income rose by only about $1,000.

These statistics were published by two former census income-research specialists with 50 years experience who now run Sentier Research, a nonpartisan research group. Sentier analyzes the Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey to calculate the most up-to-date changes in median household income, which it publishes six months to a year ahead of the official annual numbers. Sentier’s advance estimates are imperfect and sure to be revised, but generally have been a reliable leading indicator. (The big rise Sentier reports doesn’t account for the effect of the 2017 tax cuts, which saved the average household $1,400 in 2018, according to my colleagues at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis. For married couples with two children, the figure was more than $2,900.)

​

Sentier’s data squares with other economic trends. It explains why consumer spending has surged this year and major retailers like Lowe’s and Target report massive sales. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow had it right when he said last month that, due to fatter paychecks, families are spending and saving more at the same time.

Sentier’s income data dates to 2000 and tells the story of the past two decades. The recession of 2008-09 crushed middle-class incomes so dramatically that the median income when Mr. Obama left office was no higher than it was when George W. Bush arrived. That was the middle-class and blue-collar squeeze Donald Trump tapped into.

Mr. Obama inherited a financial mess, but the median income continued its decline during almost all of his first term and rose only slowly in his second term—the weakest recovery from a recession since the 1930s. “We never saw a recovery where incomes took such a long time to recover the lost ground,” says Sentier founder Gordon Green.

Now a warning: A protracted economic slowdown or recession could reverse Mr. Trump’s advances on jobs and incomes. The trade war is imposing a heavy toll. But for now the median family enjoys its fattest paychecks ever. The middle class not only isn’t shrinking, it’s getting richer.


Mr. Moore is a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and co-author, with Arthur Laffer, of “Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy.”

​

 

Certain posters here will claim Obama gets the credit because it is positive but only after blaming Trump for negative economic news.

 

This is good news overall, but the graph is pretty damned funny. Clearly, a line started in the post-debacle recovery has continued -- good! -- with virtually no change in slope, but the author unscientifically bins the data strictly into presidential administrations, and then shows a nearly flat line for Obama (including the post 2008 fallout and bottoming of the curve).

So yes, if you include the aftermath of the financial crisis, "Trump's" numbers for household income look better than "Obama's" or "Bush's."

Not exactly how we encourage bright young minds to do data fitting -- that, I can tell you. I think we can do better.

Anyway, OP, appreciate good news, but you really have to laugh, don't you, at the ridiculously partisan first line of your pasted "good news"? It is not "radical" to attempt to uphold the rule law and the constitution. And some of us are going to keep pointing that out, sorry.

 

Hey look over there....ignore the treasonous mistake-in-chief behind the curtain.

 

Do you even understand the trade process with China? The relative difference between US imports and Chinese Imports is
3X the tariffs? They agree to bring that down 'eventually' but don't want to make any commitments to enforcement.

This is a serious issue and I applaud the Trump administration for standing up to China that has had an unfair advantage protecting
its own companies for way too long.

 

When an article starts at "radical Democrats’ impeachment squad" it doesn't spark much positivity.

 

OT, if only you'd read the article.

it is written by the disgraced Trump nominee to the Fed, during the first round of review

Moore was quickly exposed as a pretend-economist.
​

his prognosis of the US economy in 2008 was full speed ahead !!!​

 

US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade

A gauge of U.S. manufacturing showed the lowest reading in more than 10 years in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war.

The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Any figure below 50% signals a contraction.

The new export orders index was only 41%, the lowest level since March 2009, down from the August reading of 43.3%, ISM data showed.

“We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

The report fanned fears of a recession and hit the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 200 points, erasing earlier gains on Tuesday.

“Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019. Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near-term growth,” Timothy Fiore, ISM chair, said in a statement.

The ISM employment gauge for the sector showed the lowest reading since January 2016, primarily driven by a lack of demand. New orders, backlog, raw materials inventories exports and imports also contracted across the board last month, ISM data showed.

“There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank said in a note on Tuesday following the report.

The deeper contraction in the manufacturing sector is the latest sign that the escalated trade war between the U.S. and China is taking a big bite from the economy. Manufacturing was once considered a big winner under the Trump administration with improvement in employment and activity over the past few years.

The sector contracted for the first time in more than three years in August, ending a 35-month expansion period where the PMI averaged 56.5%, according to ISM.

“Purchasing managers are telling stock market investors to get out,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, said in a note. “Run. Run for your life. Get out while you can. The outlook is darkening and the thunder is growing louder by the day.”

 

What good is it to fight overseas battles when we're losing the war at home? Trump isn't bringing unity and prosperity, it's more like divisiveness, lies, deflection, and corruption.

 

Fake News!

 

Glad to have a trade deal with Japan. Glad to have a new postal union deal. But both of those things likely would have happened anyway, regardless of who the president is. And, no way for me to say whether Trump's execution is any better or worse than any other president's would have been. So... thumbs up on managing to close a couple of deals without scandal (...yet).

 

Certain posters will fall for crappily organized data put together with an obvious agenda by a disgraced and failed Trump nominee.

 

Can you read? The positive trend started during Obama's years, what's the slope 2011 to 2017?

 

Which is why the TPP was the better plan... We had a plan to deal with China but we changed mid race.

 

No longer exporting Soybeans to the country that consumes 63% is a huge loss to that region of farmers. And Russia has taken over the wheat game. Meanwhile You guys call them "radical democrats" but it is this administration giving handouts to farmers like their names were comrade Mao. From what I've heard, hard working people don't deserve nor like handouts. In addition, by the way this administration is misrepresenting immigrants you're also cutting cheap labor from these small farms. In the end, the government will be owning the Big farms that take over the failing small farms who voted for trump . Do you know what they call that? hmm.. Probably not. It'll just go over the head.

Now Poor Farmer Travis who voted for Trump and was never a racist in Texas can't find workers to milk his cows and pick his blueberries. His daughter and sons transfer out of college to help their failing farm. Rafael Cruz pays a visit, tells them it's going to be ok keep voting for them and if they would like any machine gun bacon? Travis' farm still manages to go bankrupt, his daughter ends up stripping to save money for her nursing degree.
His sons end up repairing roofs as biblical floods happen every 2 years... but hey, radical dems.

http://texasfarmbureau.org/farm-bankruptcies-rising/