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PER's of the Rockets in the Playoffs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Spacemoth, May 16, 2008.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    LINK

    I was reading Hollinger's article today and came across this link. I dunno if anyone has already seen it yet but I thought it's data was interesting. Here are the Rockets and their respective rankings among all players who played in the playoffs this year. Regular season PER is in (). I know 6 games is a small sample size (and smaller for Rafer) but for those of us who watched all the games it would make complete sense.

    5. Tracy McGrady 24.12 (18.50)
    19. Carl Landry 19.46 (21.56)
    34. Rafer Alston 17.65 (13.30)
    43. Dikembe Mutombo 16.59 (14.51)
    66. Luis Scola 14.29 (16.18)
    100. Chuck Hayes 10.99 (11.26)
    112. Shane Battier 9.30 (11.69)
    131. Aaron Brooks 6.04 (13.06)
    133. Bobby Jackson 5.63 (13.57)
    141 (LAST). Luther Head -6.01 (13.68)

    DNQ - not enough minutes: Novak (17.20), Harris (17.12), Woods (14.33)

    Now just remember, in the regular season PER's are generally higher for many players because they are getting their stats against inferior competition. 83 players of the 141 in the playoffs had PER's below 15, which is supposed to be the league average in the regular season. Just to show you that our role players aren't the worst ever conceived, here are some other notables:

    86. Ray Allen 12.25
    96. Andre Miller 11.24
    99. Kyle Korver 11.16
    106. Marcus Camby 10.11
    108. Brent Barry 9.93
    109. Leandro Barbosa 9.45
    111. Sam Cassell 9.37
    115. Michael Finley 8.85
    119. Mike Bibby 7.85
    120. Josh Howard 7.79
    132. Bruce Bowen 5.93
    134. Bonzi Wells 5.56
    137. Jerry Stackhouse 4.19

    So a lot of decent NBA players got it handed to them in the playoffs. That's how it goes; the playoffs are supposed to be where the men separate themselves from the boys. On our team, Tracy, Rafer, Deke actually improved their PERs in the playoffs. Landry and Hayes showed up with play consistent to their regular season, and Battier Scola experienced minor declines. Brooks, Jackson, and Head all experienced dropoffs of over 7 points, and in Head's case it was -19. That's gotta be some sort of record.

    The discrepancy between regular season and playoff stats can be attributed to a.) the limited amount of play and how hot each player is in that particular series, b.) matchups with each particular playoff team and how players react to the more physical style of play, and c.) just showing up, making the shots they are normally supposed to make, and not choking. Some players have a reputation for being clutch, and others have reputations for being chokers. After two years of evidence, I freely attribute the choker label to Head. He had plenty of open threes and lay-ups that he just did not make. You don't need these stats to validate that.

    Some other observations:

    -Thank you Morey, so much, for Carl Landry.
    -I want to sex Mutombo
    -Scola had some really bad games from 2-4 and a not so good one in 1, but really came back in the last two. He is a world champion and should be fine.
    -Battier made all his shots in Game 1 and STILL had a PER below 10. Although many other role players in his situation (see Bruce Bowen) also struggled, I myself am beginning to wonder if the defensive dropoff we'd experience from another starting SF would not be outweighed by that player's offensive superiority.
    -Chuck Hayes is Chuck Hayes, I think we should keep him because he has a role on this team and he does it well and consistently.
    -Aaron Brooks had a good Game 2 and was exposing Utah's lack of speed before his confidence took a lapse again for the rest of the series. All our rookies stand to improve a lot over the year.
    -Add Yao to the top of that list and replace our guard play with people that can actually perform in the crunch, and we should be able to advance far in the playoffs next year.
     
  2. mzymmm

    mzymmm Rookie

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    100. Chuck Hayes 10.99 (11.26)
    112. Shane Battier 9.30 (11.69)
    131. Aaron Brooks 6.04 (13.06)
    133. Bobby Jackson 5.63 (13.57)
    141 (LAST). Luther Head -6.01 (13.68)

    Trade them all :mad:




    :p
     
  3. withmustard

    withmustard Member
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    ya, i just read that Luther had the worst per in the playoffs by far. I've seen enough.
     
  4. T.Mcgrady

    T.Mcgrady Member

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    IMO Luther will do better once Yao is back.
     
  5. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I'm not a big PER guy, I just watch the game and the flow to see who pass shots, make plays and so forth. The per or plus minus is ok, but its not the end all be all. The Per also illustrates what many have been saying about Mr Glue. He's not as valuable as many make him out to be. Gay,Childres,Artest all had higher Per than Battier, yet people talk how utradeable he is. Battier has a place, its just on the bench if the team doesn't have a big 3.
     
  6. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Luther did fine while Yao was out. You see his in-season 13.6 PER? It's not a question of getting his season PER to go up although that would be nice. Just give me a 13 PER backup SG that can also put up a 13 PER in the playoffs!

    Luther Head had tons of open threes in this year's and last year's playoffs. He missed almost all of them. After a career ~40% 3PT% in the regular season. He's a choker.
     
  7. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    Ask yourselves this.

    Is that acceptable for a lottery pick that was given up for him?

    For what was given up in acquiring Battier, he is supposed to be raising his play when the playoffs roll around, not going the other way. This year he was especially needed because Yao was out and he should have picked up some of the scoring load. There is no excuse for not contributing in that regard.

    According to this rating, he ties a rookie, and gets beat by another rookie, a perennial playoff choker in Head, and a over the hill guard....and not a single one of them cost us a lottery pick.

    It would only make sense. Bruce Bowen is still just as good as Battier, if not better, on defense. Of course, the difference is, they werent stupid enough to waste a lottery pick on him.
     
  8. kwng

    kwng Member

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    Thanks for the PER info. It's very interesting to note all rookies experience a drop from their regular season. That's expected but Battier was injured so his drop was expected. Hayes and especially Head are baffling (playoffs phobia?).
     
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    On average, all players tend to have a drop in their stats from the regular season to the playoffs. I think that applies to rookies and veterans alike, and I think its particularly true for role players.
     
  10. LCII

    LCII Contributing Member

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    Wow, this is just another piece of evidence exposing Hayes uselessness. Not that his oncourt performance against the Jazz wasn't enough evidence.

    I really hope Morey finds a way to get rid of Head and Hayes this offseason.
     
  11. thumbs

    thumbs Contributing Member

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    I cry foul! Unnecessary stattering! One technical. :D
     
  12. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Lets put it the other way. Do you think the Spurs would have traded Bruce Bowen for the #8 pick in the 2006 draft, if they had that chance? I do not. I think West gave up Battier reluctantly, and he only did so because he decided it was time to rebuild.
     
  13. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Actually, if you're going to go to this much trouble, you might want to check your own numbers again before drawing conclusions. Scola's PER declined less than Landry's did during the playoffs. Just so you'll know. I was using what you posted. Both played pretty well for rookies in their first playoff series.
     
  14. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    If Spurs do not trade, it actually makes sense for them because they have championships to back up what Bowen brings. They are actually in the "Win Now" mode so giving up that 8th pick would make lot more sense for them than it would for Rockets. Spurs have all the other pieces intact and they can afford to look overpay for Bowen. Rockets were in no position to do the same considering the talent level is so low. Also, Bowen is better than Battier, in their assigned defensive roll, so that's another hit.

    Even then, I think Spurs are smart enough to jump on a #8 pick for talent purposes considering Bowen is aging and Udoka is being trained as his replacement. Spurs would have gotten a LOT more than what Rockets got.

    The fact is, Rockets got Battier for 8th pick while Spurs got Bowen for ......

    It does not matter what Jerry West though and why he traded the pick. Jerry West is not looking out for the Rockets. Your thinking that Jerry West gave up Battier reluctantly is only speculation. What makes more sense is that West jumped on talent when he saw the chance.

    Battier is a good piece for this team but he should have been brought here after using the 8th pick for talent. We overpaid for him (lottery) and gave up a chance to add talent on this team. It's really n ot that hard to see.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    It's not merely speculation. Jonathan Feigen said in his blog some time ago that Jerry West was always adamant about not trading Battier. Assuming Feigen didn't just make that up, and considering that Jerry West fired the head coach shortly into the following season, I think one can reasonably infer that it was a reluctant trade and one done for rebuilding purposes. How long did Jerry West stick around in Memphis, btw, after that move?
     
  16. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    Pretty much what Gater and I have been saying forever. If they wanted Swift back, cool, but u don't give up swift and the #8 for a guy that has declined since his rookie yr. I've always liked shane but the rox coud have drafted Brewer or traded for Childress if the were just hell bent on not drafting Gay. There is a reason ur drafting #8. When Washington wanted to give up their lotto pick, they wound up with Jamison. When Boston gave up their lotto pick, they got Ray Allen. The rox give up a player and the number 8, they got a career 10ppg scorer. I'm willing to bet, once morey made the call, west never let him off the phone. Just like Kupchack never let Heisley off the phone when all he wanted was pau's brother, crittendon and a couple picks.
     
  17. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    Leebigez, Zboy, and GATER thank you all for talking some sense into these people that actually think the Rockets got the better end of that deal. The Rockets got thoroughly screwed. It's going to be a move that will haunt this franchise for a long time unless they package Battier for Artest and make us forget about Rudy Gay with playoff success. Bluntly put, this team just needs more talent. The Rockets need more multi-dimensional athletic basketball players. While Rudy Gay gets better and better, Battier will get worse and worse. Oh I forgot, we were in "win now" mode, but still haven't gotten out of the 1st rd. As the other posters have been saying, the Rockets gave up way too much for a generic brand of glue. Unless there is an upgrade in talent this offseason, the Rockets will continue to be a 50 win team in the regular season and will disappoint in the playoffs.
     
  18. ibm

    ibm Member

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    this is baseless. any support to back it up?
     
  19. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    damn, luther how do you get a NEGATIVE per? i think the organization has lost hope in the guy. he had a really great year in 06-07 where he made some clutch shots during the reg. seaosn, but ever since the disappearance act last yr v. utah, he hasn't been the same.

    once again, it shows tmac elevates his game to a higher level in the playoffs :eek:

    i thought our team overall played well (though everybody could have shot better). but man, some of those PERs look ugly for some of our players.
     
  20. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Bruce Bowen and Battier will never score high on the PER rankings, because they don't score and rebound enough. It doesn't measure defense. Guys like Keyon Dooling, Jannero Pargo, Devean George and Roger Mason will routinely beat Bowen and Battier. But I rather have Bruce Bowen and Battier than those guys.

    PER is doesn't illustrate the worth of a player very well. It tends to favor ballhogs and offensive spark guys.

    I am all for Childress. It's nice to think Atlanta and Sacramento will get rid of Childress and Artest for a player that's worse. It might happen, someday, when they are much older.
     

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