Paying for our Core

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by htownbball, Nov 9, 2017.

  1. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    Dallas Keuchel (2019, 31 yrs)

    Marwin Gonzalez (2019, 30 yrs)

    Jose Altuve (2020, 30 yrs)

    George Springer (2021, 31yrs)

    Carlos Correa (2022, 27 yrs)

    Alex Bregman (2023, 29 yrs)

    Lance McCullers (2022, 28 yrs)

    Is it possible for us to afford everyone? Does Marwin count as a core player? What sort of contract do you guys think these folks will command? If we sign all of them, 2023 is when all the salaries collide. Hopefully Fisher develops into a key guy, he'll also be a FA in 2023.

    The below are average salaries
    Ace level pitchers are starting at around $24M.
    2B is all about Robinson Cano at 10 years $240M, steep drop off after that
    3B top guy was Adrian Beltre at $18M
    SS Tulo is making $16M, Correa will probably command close to $30M due to his age. A lot will depend on how much Manny Machado gets once he's a FA
    OF pretty much starts at $20M

    So with inflation in mind, I think it's about $120M in average salary to have these guys all signed. We will lose some big salaries like McCann ($11.5M), Verlander ($20M), Yuli ($8M), and Reddick ($13M) so that clears $51.5M. We'll need to replace with controllable prospects. Martes and Paulino really need to take that next step in their development and I hope Whitley turns into the stud we think he is. Tucker will also need to be the guy we think he can be.
     
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    My estimates:

    Correa (2022): To figure what hell get as a true FA, take the average of what Harper and Machado get and add 30%. To extend him now would probably take $260M/7yr, which would only buy out 4 FA years and put him back on the market at 32, time enough for 1 more big contract.

    Altuve (2019): Cano’s deal is a good barometer: $260M/10yr. He seems a little bitter about his current contract so very doubtful he signs an extension, but $300M/12yrs (replacing the last 2 years of his current deal) would probably lock him up.

    The rest are harder to gauge and frankly don’t matter as much. Springer could be a $200M player. I think Keuchel and McCullers are limited, both have question marks, but whatever Darvish and Arrieta get will be the lower end of what Keuchel should expect assuming he has a good year. If McCullers ever stays healthy he could have a CY season and push his value near $200M. Marwin is worth $50M/4yrs to a team that thinks his 2017 was real. He has a lot on the line in 2018, another 4 war season would put him in line for near 9 figures. Bregman is too far away, but a deal buying out 2 FA years would probably like $80M/7yr. May as well speculate what the rest of the pre-FA players would look like if extended:

    Gattis: $26M/3yr

    Marisnick: $40M/6yr

    McHugh: $58M/5yr

    Peacock: $44M/6yr

    Musgrove: $30M/6yr

    Devenski: $50M/6yr

    Harris: $40M/5yr

    Giles: $70M/7yr
     
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  3. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    This leads me to say one thing.

    Enjoy the next 4 years, because we aren't retaining everyone.

    This team should win at least two more championships in that time frame.
     
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  4. CrushCity

    CrushCity Member

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    definitly. i keep telling people who are in denial to enjoy it now. these guys are currently getting raped at below market value. they will expect theirs when its time and deserve it and sadly the astros don't have the coffers to cover all of them.
     
  5. Junkyard_Dog

    Junkyard_Dog Member

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    I feel like as much money as we all just spent on World Series gear should at least put a sizable down payment on it right? :D
     
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  6. conquistador#11

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    I don't see what's so expensive. sign errrone. make it rain!
    600 million payroll! get emirates and qatar to invest and put their logo on the jerseys.
    WOOOOO i'm pumped.

    Yes, we should enjoy it every bit. I watch the highlight videos when I first log in to the site in the morning. Like everyday.
     
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  7. Big Uns

    Big Uns Member

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    Thats why I think we take a shot long term early. Altuve...for God's sake get that man paid now. Just do it. Offer great money to Spring a ding, and wait out Correa for 1 or 2 more years.

    Dallas, should get paid but not crazy money paid and Marwin gets an average deal when contract comes around. If Marwin or Dallas balks, hopefully Tucker, Martes, an other minor leavers are ready.

    Have to keep core. Don't F this up.
     
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  8. dockerland

    dockerland Contributing Member

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    I agree, I still think they should be offering Altuve a long term extension now at market rate. Yes it will hurt the pockets financially for the next few years but you are sending a great message to the clubhouse that we will reward performances and keep that positive attitude around the club. Sign Altuve long term now and you have more of a chance of Correa staying in Houston.
     
  9. v3.0

    v3.0 Contributing Member

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    Boras is Altuve's agent, he's gonna go for the homerun contract, about 200mill.
     
    #9 v3.0, Nov 9, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
  10. DudeWah

    DudeWah Contributing Member

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    Altuve
    Correa
    Springer
    Bregman

    Get all of them signed.

    If I had to lose one, it would be Springer.

    Verlander
    Marwin
    Keuchel

    Those guys are all probably gone.

    Need replacement production from: Martes, Whitley, Tucker.
     
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  11. sealclubber1016

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    The Astros are gonna have to pay somebody to pitch. Verlander only has 2 more years, and he's aging. DK is a free agent after next season. Morton is a FA after next season. We still don't know what LMJ is long term. McHugh only has 2 more years

    That's a much larger issue than keeping together all the offensive players. Unless Whitley or Martes turns out to be an ace, we are gonna have to invest some financial assets in that rotation. Even if we hit on one of them, we will need to fill out the rotation. We can't be spending 100-120 million on 4 or 5 offensive players.
     
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  12. HTM

    HTM Member

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    No need to freak out. Most of these guys are a long ways away. Just enjoy it. Next 2-5 years should be lots of fun.
     
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  13. theimpossibles1

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    #13 theimpossibles1, Nov 10, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2017
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Altuve is the one. Give that man his money.

    Correa is next priority but there’s still a ton of time.

    Springer and Bregman are the only others they should seriously pursue.

    I’m honestly not all that interested in extending Keuchel or McCullers.
     
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  15. Houstunna

    Houstunna Contributing Member

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    They might reach the WS at least three times too.

    Buffalo Bills except WIN multiple in the process.

    Houston's revenge on Buffalo.
     
  16. PhiSlammaJamma

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    I will never watch The Core again. One long crapfest of a movie. Ok. I will probably watch it again, but it won’t get any better and that’s all I gotta say about that. Pay them all. Pay them all big.
     
  17. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Also, front load Gurriels contract for the first 5 games.
     
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  18. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    It's interesting because I think from a system standpoint , you probably feel the most comfortable letting springer go if he's too expensive becuase you have Tucker in his place .

    But springer is a leader on this team .

    All 4 I really want to keep .

    I think the Astros can make enough money to do it .
     
  19. sealclubber1016

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    They will have to pay those 4 over a 4 year stretch. And if they stay healthy and perform to expectations, those 4 combined will likely be over a billion dollars in guaranteed money.

    I know us fans like to treat owners cash like monopoly money, but I can't blame any man for being skittish about handing out that much money to athletes who are one incident away from never being the same.
     
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  20. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Agreed .

    A lot will happen over the next few years . The idea of locking up guys early is interesting , but I'm not sure there is enough upside there .
     
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