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PA 18 now a toss up

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Carl Herrera, Feb 27, 2018.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member
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    https://politicalwire.com/2018/02/27/pa-18-special-election-now-toss/

    Cook Political Report: “It’s not normal for Republicans to be worried about losing a seat President Trump carried by 20 points. But with two weeks to go before the March 13 special election, Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone is locked in an extremely close contest against Democratic prosecutor/Marine veteran Conor Lamb, who has significantly outspent him.”

    “We’re moving the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.”

    “What’s made the race so close, many Republicans admit, is that Lamb has simply proven to be a stronger candidate than Saccone.”
     
  2. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Saccone is running an anti-labor union campaign in a district with lots of labor unions that previously endorsed Tim Murphy (the previous Republican Congressman). Seems like a stupid idea to run on right to work laws in a district with Republican leaning labor unions. All the unions switched to supporting Lamb and in a special election with depressed turnout, union organizing becomes even more important.
     
  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member
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  4. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member
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  5. Buck Turgidson

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    Really?
     
  6. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member
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    Organized Labor is for commies and Russian sympathizers.
     
  7. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    Looks like this might have to wait until the absentee ballots are tabulated which should be done by midnight.
     
  8. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    Sounds at least 2 counties won't report absentee votes until tomorrow.
     
  9. justtxyank

    justtxyank We are all Kosh
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    With 99% reported we have a margin of less than 100 votes separating the candidates
     
    amaru likes this.
  10. Hustle Town

    Hustle Town Contributing Member

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    Could have called it for Lamb a while ago given absentee votes generally skew blue
     
  11. superfob

    superfob Mommy WOW! I'm a Big Kid now.
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    Time for a voter fraud investigation again?
     
  12. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    That's not always true. In states (like Texas) where absentee ballots are restricted, many times those votes will skew Republican. Pennsylvania has similarly restrictive absentee voting. One other factor is whether a political party actively signed people up for absentee voting and chased those ballots. Not sure which party was better at this.

    With that said, based on the current numbers, I dont think Saccone can overcome the current margin. Although we're in recount territory so this could drag on.
     
  13. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The party of God and morality strikes again.

    It doesn't matter who wins tonight. The point is an easy GOP district went 50/50 and ends any debate the Dems will flip the House in November. Just a matter of how much.
     
  14. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    847 will be hard to overcome - Saccone will need to win like 63% of the outstanding absentee ballots when he has won roughly 55% between the 3 counties and 3200 votes to be counted.....to make up the difference.

    Pretty tall order.

    DD
     
  15. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    I think Lamb is going to pull this out. We'll see. It's why we vote. I'm assuming that the Russians aren't involved in this special election. If Lamb does win, it is both a huge upset and a repudiation of Mr. trump.
     
  16. Brando2101

    Brando2101 Contributing Member

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    All the precincts are in and the lead is down to about 550 before the last group of absentee votes.
     
  17. CometsWin

    CometsWin Listening to Tupac Westsiiiiide
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    Meellions and meellions of illegals voted for commie Conor Lamb.

    o_O
     
    #17 CometsWin, Mar 13, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2018
  18. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    The math isn[t good for Saccone. I guess he can hope to get close enough for a recount to matter but the numbers aren't looking very good.
     
  19. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member
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    Saccone has a weak mustache and pronounces his Italian last name the Gringo way. Weak sauce candidate.
     
  20. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    We may get a definitive answer around 1am central time. That's when the county clerk of the one outstanding county with absentee votes uncounted estimated they would be finished. An interesting tidbit is that if there is a margin of less than one half of 1%, the state allows a recount. What makes that really interesting? PA's constitution only specifies a recount possibility for statewide elections. If the winner's lead is more than that .5%, no recount at all. If it's less than that, it's not clear that there will be a recount allowed. Sounds like that would end in a legal battle. This is a very close election, folks, and it isn't supposed to be. What is stunning is that this district was strongly for Mr. trump in 2016. He campaigned there for the GOP guy just the other day, praising him and predicting an easy win, yet the vote couldn't be much closer.

    Definitely a repudiation of trump in what is traditionally a heavily Republican district, and whether the Democrat, Lamb, wins or not, this has to scare the hell out of the leadership of the Republican Party. If Lamb wins? Expect trump, as well has his stable of sycophants, to attack the GOP candidate, the same guy he praised a couple of days ago. It would be typical behavior from the asshole who sometimes resides in the White House. This is very, very encouraging for the Democratic Party in 2018. As a Democrat myself, I'm feeling pretty good about this special election, win or lose. I think Lamb is going to win.

    As an aside, Lamb is a good looking ex-Marine. He may have a bright political future ahead of him.
     
    #20 Deckard, Mar 13, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2018
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