Early in the season, I keep thinking it's just a matter of our OLine not gelling. But it's been 10 games now, and things seem to be getting worse and worse. Right now, I feel like our running game's only purpose is to keep the play action working. The worst part is, I feel like there's absolutely no point in using Foster on obvious running situations towards the end of games. Because he can't churn out tough yards like last year. It seems every game, Foster basically gets like 10 yards on his last 10 carries. I understand the logic in such plays, but why not let Forsett do the same thing? He's just as capable of running straight up the middle for no gain. Why run Foster through such collisions if you know he's not going to create 1st down runs out of thin air? I know I may be nitpicking on a 9-1 team. But our running game is paramount for success in the playoffs. And right now, I don't know if Foster can make it to the playoffs relatively fresh.
I want to see Foster's touches limited as well, and I'm frustrated with the lack of big plays, but that's just what happens when you have a defense that is keying on you. Every time Arian has been locked down, Matt has exploited the defense's adjustments. So, I have no problem with it. Also, your starter is typically your *best* ball-carrier, meaning that he's the least likely to fumble. So, I don't want some starry-eyed backup in there trying to play hero-ball and coughing up a fumble in a critical situation.
The idea that Foster's productivity is limited because defenses are "keying on him" is wishful thinking.
How do you figure? He's regarded as a top 3 RB in the NFL, and it's no secret that the Texans offense is predicated on the running game setting up play-action. No running game, no play-action, no points. Seems pretty elementary to think that a lot of defenses send a safety to close the cutback lane on Foster.
Teams have been selling out on the run all season. We've burned them a few times with long passes (Denver, Baltimore), but most of the time our defense has either put us in a position to get a big lead, or we've benefitted from some great early drives to get in front... and thus, we don't have much need to pass late in the game. If anything, the last game proves that this team could be pass-happy if it wanted to be. Andre is killer on the comeback and over the top routes, OD is finding space wherever he wants it, KW is the penultimate possession receiver who excels at blocking downfield, and the newbies (Martin, Jean) could always break one open. Schaub just has to pick the right one to throw to.
Last week was the first time in a long time Arian went without a TD. Jags were obviously trying to stop the run. Add to that how we were behind a lot of the game and it makes since why Arian didn't have great numbers. It is really pointless to make a big deal about any of this. They are professionals and they know better then any of us what they need to get better at and how to do it. Just sit back and enjoy a historic season.
Lots of analyzing going on in this thread. I agree with most of it but one thing is clear by simply watching the games - the o-line has fallen off and Arian Foster has become slightly less... majestic, for whatever reason.
it's Tate's fault. he needs to get healthy so we can have a two headed monster back. Foster wears down because he's been carrying the load literally every game.
Absolutely the OL is not as good as it was last year. The rightside in particular. But Arian still gets a lot of respect from defensive coordinators. I don't think I've ever seen a team start a game with 3 playfake passes so many times in one year. Kubiak is banking on defenses selling out to stop Arian, and for the most part, it's working.
I wonder why defensive coordinators are so stupid that they don't realize that if they zero in on the running back then guys like Adrian Peterson, CJ Spiller, Frank Gore, Doug Martin, Jamal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, etc. would stop being as productive as they have been. The reality is that Foster is just not as productive this year. The oline hasn't been nearly as good and he is not the same explosive runner he was last year. Sometimes he is, but not all the time. Too often he just doesn't have the burst through the hole that he did last year. I'm not saying he's done or anything like that, I'm just saying that it's silly to pretend he's just as good as he was last year and the only difference is now teams know how good he is. If that's the case then he isn't really a Top 3 RB anyway, because a Top 3 RB should still be able to be among the top 10 in YPC after teams know he's good. This.
This isn't a knock on Arian what I'm about to say, but too much credit is given to the running game for the play action pass and not enough to Schaub. Schaub sells the play action better than anyone in the league. I think it was two years ago, not sure, but it was before Arian, when debates were happening on this board as to why teams were biting on the PA despite our poor running game.
You're right, it's not wishful thinking...it's a fact. DonnyMost's posts point out why stopping the run is so important for other teams against the texans. The last two games, teams have done a very good job of setting the edge against the texans and it seemed fairly obvious that was something that the other team had worked on. If you're trying to make the point that the running game isn't as strong, then I can agree that it hasn't looked as good. But that doesn't mean that teams are not focused on it. Lanes haven't been opening up as much and Arian doesn't seem to be exploding through holes the same. He just doesn't seem to get those couple extra yards by falling forward like he routinely did in the past. There are several factors that go into that...but opponents not keying in on the run game is not one of them.
Sorry if I misrepresented my argument. Of course teams are keying in on the running game. My point is that is not the sole reason that Arian hasn't been as productive. Teams key in on great running backs but they can still be successful. Arian has a pretty low YPC right now and it is wishful thinking to write it off as simply being a result of a good running back being focused on by a defense.
Yep. This is what I meant in my original post saying we're running for the sake of the PA. This offense was running them successfully long before Foster came, and did it very well. The only difference was that our defense sucked back then. So now we have leads in addition to that.
Yeah, teams keyed in on stopping the run game last year but the texans still managed to run the all effectively. The run game just isn't clicking for whatever reason. I think it's a combination of Oline not playing as well and Arian not being his best either, but maybe teams are just playing the stretch play better too. I would like to see the texans run a little more traditional running plays, which they have had pretty good success on the last few weeks.
Brisiel was a beast on the cut on the stretch play. I think he's missed more than Winston personally.
I didn't realize Foster had so many damn carries. Foster - 249 Lynch - 212 Martin - 197 Peterson - 195 Ridley - 185 Morris - 184 BJGE - 182 Richardson - 180 McCoy - 177 Charles - 172 Stands to reason that his average would be lower than usual at that kind of pace. Another factor, Arian is typically running with a lead. Meaning we are playing ball control offense, trying to kill clock, and not turn it over. Not a lot of sexy plays compared to say somebody like, Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson, who have been in more competitive games. Lots of factors at play here.
Maybe, Winston's bread and butter was run blocking. He made his living there just as much as Brisiel. They showed a comparison of the Texans YPC on the left and right side, and I think the left side averaged almost a whole 2 extra yards per carry than the right this year.
So I guess no one has problems with Kubiak running Foster in 4th quarters, despite him basically never getting yards when defense expects it? Never mixing a few PAs to keep him from getting into collisions with DL/LBs? I thought that was an even bigger problem than us simply not running the ball effectively, but I guess that's probably just my personal worry. Teams have already adjusted. And this team does not keep a drive going as well as they did last year. We are averaging 30yards/drive. Last year, we also average 30yards/drive. But that was with Yates playing for 6 games. So teams are figuring things out against us, and having more success.
I mentioned that. But Foster has been absolutely horrific in running-with-lead situations. Take the Bears game. He had something like 90 yards in 14 carries, and then 10 yards in 15 carries. The whole point of having a pro-bowl RB is that you can run the football when teams expect it. The whole 3 yards and a cloud of dust thing. Except Foster's not even doing that. He basically runs forward and falls.
