Our record without Dwight is actually better this season

So please explain to us how it's possible that Morey is too infatuated with statistics and has huge influence on coaching, and he obviously know these tic tac statistics, yet Howard continues to play big minutes?

People will get themselves to believe anything convenient.

 

I really wouldn't go as far as to call him a 'cancer'. I'm sure he is not, he seems cool with a lot of guys on the team. But I do agree, that the Rockets don't need Dwight to win and I'm also of the opinion that they are a better team without him.

Sure the sample size this season might not be big, but if you take into account last season (which is fair to do, as this team is pretty much the exact same team), then that right there is a big enough sample size. I know certain players seem to get blamed for 'sticky ball' if you will, but the ball does indeed seem to move better without Dwight, the Rockets play faster without him and the guards hit the boards harder without him. Weirdly enough our defense doesn't seem to suffer all that much without him and offensively Dwight just seems to have lost it.

Should he be getting more shots, while he is a Rocket?! Most certainly, BUT Dwight needs to really start setting hard picks and rolling harder. He is capable of doing that and I don't get why he doesn't do it consistently. Used that way, he could be an offensive weapon. What has been most frustrating to watch for me is, when Dwight catches passes in the paint - it seems to take him forever to gather the ball to bring it up for a dunk. Also he doesn't seem to go up hard enough for the dunk. He used to at least try and finsih whatever was passed to him in the past but not anymore. Taking his time gathering the ball and not going up strong gives the other team a chance to foul him and we all know how bad of a FT shooter he is. Earlier in his career, a lot of the opportunities he is getting now would have been And1's - this rarely happens anymore.

All the Rockets really need is a serviceable center who can either defend well and finish strong in the pnr, or one who can spread the floor a bit. Dwight hasn't really done either this season. The only really argument to be made for having Dwight, is insurance. While Capela and DMo are promising players, one seems to be injury-prone and the other is still very raw and doesn't bring it consistently (not that Dwight does either though - so yeah ).

Also, I don't get some posters and the excuses they make for Howard, namely PLAYOFF DWIGHT. Why doesn't he play that way in the regular season? He is the highest paid player on the team, he should be giving the exact same effort throughout the 82 game regular season. While I don't agree with some who argue that PLAYOFF DWIGHT is dominant, I do think that PLAYOFF DWIGHT would at least help this current team win more - you know that supermarket chain slogan - EVERY LITTLE HELPS.

Reason why I think that PLAYOFF DWIGHT wasn't dominant: IMHO Dwight was very good in the playoffs (did what was needed of him) but not great. He might have been the most consistent player in last years playoffs, like many claim, but that is easier to do when you don't run the offense AND simultaneously have to deal with 4-5 defenders on you at all times. He is still one of the most athletic guys in the league - so in my mind he should have really dominated Tyson Chandler and Bogut (DeAndre maybe not so much, because that guy is a physical beast too). He did not dominate them. He played them very well but dominating in my eyes looks different.

That said, yeah he was very very good in the playoffs and it would be nice to see that effort in the regular season too.

 

This is exactly what I mean. How do you reconcile the fact that one of the greatest basketball statistics minds has seen these stats and essentially disagrees?

The answer is, there are more stats than these, and there are more factors than stats which Morey looks at, and he may not as much influence on who plays as we think. There's also last season's playoffs, which you completely left out.

Dwight Howard was not good in the regular season last year. He was much better in the playoffs. He's better this regular season than last, although he's not taking as many shots. He will be better in the playoffs again, he has always upped his game in the playoffs.

Just think about the logic of what you're saying. The media insists there are at least a few teams who will offer Dwight 15-20m this summer. I bet there are 10-15 teams who would offer him 10m. Does this sound like a net negative player? Or do you think our Howard backups are better than whoever he'd replace on those teams? Of course not.

It simply doesn't make sense. There are other factors. Especially this season, JB has effectively reduced Dwight's offensive impact by reducing his shots, and at the same time JB is running a defense which does not take advantage of Howard's strengths. That's why all the defensive guys on our team are having worse defensive seasons.

I'm not happy with what we've gotten from Dwight either, but it's quite a leap to pin the blame squarely on Dwight alone.

 

lmao, This is Morey's type of bullshlt.

 

Agreeing with you != honest opinion.

Also, how the hell do you decide what a big enough sample size is?

Every economist I work with agree's that an entire season is hardly enough to establish a trend, much less draw conclusions from the data, and you are trying to do exactly that, but with even less data.

You are chart fitting to an extreme. If you try to do your due dillegence with an opinion already in mind, then your confirmation bias are going to show in your conclusion.

there are ways to determine if Dwight is hurting or helping the team based on how well his replacements are playing, but you haven't seen those stats either I'm guessing.

I'm just saying, pushing an agenda helps nobody. Use your eyes to guess, but use stats in the most normative way possible. That's how you improve your ability to see basketball trends with only your eye tests.

 

If you actually believe this team would have a better record than it does now if Dwight had missed the entire season and been replaced by some combination of Capela/DMo/Jones/Harrell/Smith then you are ignorant.

1-star thread.

 

Obviously I'm not going to go through your posts and obviously they have not been debunked to death as you describe. Be realistic.

Now you're making things up. There's no such thing as no one wants a player who's worth 10m+ in the market. People didn't offer enough, and that's likely because they don't want to give up anything significant when they can approach Dwight this summer as an FA. That's how it has always been with people on expiring contracts. If you wanted nothing but scrub contracts in return for Dwight's expiring, I assure you every contender would be on it.

Chief, Valenciunas is a f'ing 23 year old C on a multi year contract improving every year on a team looking at a 4-5 year contending window. Why the F would they trade him for an expiring Dwight who won't promise them an extension? Of course they wouldn't make that trade, and that has nothing to do with "OH LOOK HOW FAR HE'S FALLEN".

Here's the magic question: why are we better with Dwight on the floor vs off, if we're better with him not dressing than when he plays? Isn't on/off floor a better indicator since fewer external factors are affected within a single game vs across a variety of games whether other players get injured, hot, cold, whatever?

Come on man. It's just over the top at this point. We're all down, we're all mad, but let's try to get less hysterical.

 

Dwight was rested during what were considered the "easier" games of back-to-backs for a while. Out of those 11 games cited as 'irrefutable evidence', I'm not sure how many of those qualify.

 

There's always a cancer on the team.

Allegedly

 

Again, nothing has been debunked. Capela on the floor with different teammates versus different opponents is not a proper comparison. *sigh*

This is why I'm siding with the expert - Morey - on this. I'm sure what he's looked at is how does Howard do vs our other C's assuming the same 4 other players next to him.

You're looking at +/-. Do you realize that Daryl Morey was looking at +/- and OTRG and DTRG when you were looking at ppg?

Also, just to reiterate:

Toronto is NOT an example. Don't say it's just one example. There's nothing left to say on that except to admit you flat out made it up in your head and it was atrocious analysis of Dwight's value. A really really amateur analysis.

Again with Boston, the same thing. Of course they will not give us first round picks for Dwight when they can sign him this summer and they are doing well. Do you understand the value of Boston's picks and the fact that they're a young already succesful team with multiple picks coming up? Dwight is an expiring contract and he's 30. From our perspective, anything less than Lee and two picks would not be a fair trade. There was no trade there. Again, it has nothing to do with Dwight's mighty fall.

There are no examples at all. Neither Boston nor Toronto nor anyone else. The only place we will finally get to know his value is how many teams offer him money this summer, and how much. But wait, he's worth NEGATIVE so he should pay THEM right? lol

Or maybe these idiots think *gasp* they can motivate him better, take advantage of his strengths a bit more on defense, and get upto 10-15m worth of value out of him. What are the Ainge's of the world THINKING after you've been on the board debunking these things to death over and over. Maybe we should send him your stats.

Like I said, we're all hurting, but please get a grip on it. No one here is deluded. Dwight is an very good player, one who sucks at FT's, turns it over, doesn't post up well at all, can't hit a J, commits stupid fouls sometimes, argues with refs, relies on strength, is getting less athletic each year, doesn't wallow in self-pity after/during losses, plays very good team defense but could be better, excellent individual defense, beasts on the boards, efficient FG%, blocks shots, turns it up in the playoffs, wins his matchup most nights, does a ****-ton for the community, helps rookies ease in to the NBA, cheers his teammates up when they're down, doesn't complain publicly, always has this team's back in the press, respects his peers and coaches.

It's called nuance. Look it up.

 

love that. can't rep again, but here you go. I love that paragraph.

 

Updated it to be even more descriptive! Thanks!

 

Remember when Ty Lawson & Marcus Thornton were the cancers? :grin:

 

And McHale.

Keep cutting until we find the cancer!