As we all have heard, a top 10 offense and defense are the mark of a true contender. We currently have the 3rd hardest remaining schedule in terms of SOS. Rockets are ranked 2nd in the league in Defensive Rating. I know CH made a post about how Rockets opponents are shooting very poorly on wide open 3's, but I think with Dwight back that won't be a huge issue. To me, it's more of them not being able to play as close up on players with Dmo rather than Dwight just because of the quickness between both of them. At worst a healthy Rockets team is a top 5 defense (Heck Nylon Calculus projected them to drop to 8th while still giving up those 3's). Besides that point.. Our offense: Offensive Rating is currently ranked 20th in the league. FG% is 27th in the league at 42.8% which is above only the Pacers, Pistons, and 76ers (How in the world are we 16-5!) 3 pt% is ranked 16th in the league while leading the league by a large margin in 3PAR (42.2% of our FGA are from 3, the next highest is 33.2% by the Clippers). 2 pt% is ranked 20th in the league at 48.5%. (For what it's worth, Blazers are shooting 48.9% from 2 pt area) Pace is 10th in the league. Our FTR is 7th this season vs 1st last season. 31.4% this season vs 38.6% last season. EFG% is 16th And lastly we are 29th in turnover %. Our offense once healthy I'm going to exclude Jones because who knows when he comes back. The team this season has been getting to the rim fairly well (9th in the league in FGA at 0-3 FT) BUT we are 24th in the league in FG% from 0-3 FT. This probably also is a 0-3 feet thing, but Rockets are 8th in the league in % of FGA via layups. But again we are ranked 18th in makes. If anything, the biggest impact even having Dwight back will be in our FG% from around the rim. Dwight albeit suspect post player, is one of the best finishers around the rim in the game. Even if he isn't the one scoring, team's can't cheat of their man to clog up the pain because they will give up alley oops, offensive rebounds, etc. One of the main issues with our 3 point shooting is that we are 29th in the league in terms of assisting on 3 pt makes. This is a combination of our high volume of attempts and Harden being such a good 1 v 1 scorer. For reference, we were 18th in the league in the area last season. Again, having Dwight and Canaan back should help ALOT with our 3pt%. Once healthy and with the 3rd hardest remaining schedule left, can we finish with a top 10 offense? TL;DR Rockets are taking a lot of 3's and layup/0-3 ft FGA, but are doing a terrible job converting on it.
We will finish at top 5 defense and top 10 offense. I am expecting the defense to be top 2 or 3. The offense with everyone healthy and able to settle in can be a top 5 offense easily and possibly top 3. With the heavy emphasis on defense and has made the offense take a hit but that should be rectified as the team goes on and gels. I didn't see the stat posted for FT's but definitely with both Howard and Harden and to a lesser extent Canaan back and healthy we will be a top 2 team at getting the fouls. This stat alone means we will increase our scoring and the defense will benefit also as teams will have to play their bench and possible scrubs more often. Also there are intangibles that we can't too much into such as Papa being able to give us some playmaking we need along with Canaan being able to score from anywhere on the court and also how he can play Harden lite to Dmo emergence. A healthy Rockets can beat any team in the NBA.
i haven't been this pumped about our chances since 2008-2009! bring it, san antonio thespians. we're ready. finally.** ** if healthy.
Some good points by OP. One thing I noticed is that the team's TO rate is very high. It was high last year, too, but we could justify the TOs as the cost of doing business for successfully getting to the rim (3rd in % of FGs coming at rim) and the FT line (1st in getting to the line). This year, the TOs remained high but the team isn't getting at the rim (9th) or the line (10th) at a rate that would justify the cost. Dwight's return will help on these fronts, along with the FG% at rim. But the offense was struggling even before Dwight went down. Their "at rim" FG% was lower than last year's even before Dwight got injured. And the team was chucking up likely too many 3s even with Dwight, too. 3s are not a bad thing, of course, but they makes a team vulnerable to cold spells. Need some diversity in the offense, particularly in terms of other high% shots like those at rim and FTs. Moreover, James Harden is taking on too big a chunk of the offensive responsibility. He performs very well, but you don't want to wear him out. I think Morey is gonna be looking for some more offensive creator.
being the only option plus minutes\fatigue because of injuries and playing defense may be a factor causing James' committing more turnovers
