As much as I love what has become of our offense (most of the time), the glaring roster hole for this team is the lack of wings -- and this is especially apparent against Golden State. In the 18 Games since trading for Lou, here are our guards' minutes: - Harden: 36.2 mpg - Gordon: 32.2 mpg - Beverley: 30.9 mpg - Williams: 25.2 mpg That's 124.6 minutes per game combined. That means we've played a 3-guard lineup for 28.6 minutes per game, and our guards are not exactly 6'6" defender types. Of the four, only one is taller than 6'3" (Harden at 6'5") and only one is known for being a plus defender (Beverley). We have no backup wings. None. Dekker (in theory) is our backup SF, but in our offense he can only play the 4 due to his underdeveloped ball-skills/shooting. He's played about 90% of his minutes at PF this year. Our healthy rotation features: - 4 Bigs (6'11" Capela and either 6'11" Nene or 6'8" Harrell at C and the 6'10" Anderson, who can't guard wings, and 6'9" Dekker at PF) - 1 Wing (6'8" Ariza, who is asked to guard the other team's best 2/3/4, and often 1) - 4 Guards (6'5" Harden, 6'3" Gordon, 6'2" Lou and 6'1" Bev) So more often than not, we're trying to hide guys without defensive versatility (Lou and Anderson), asking offensive guards like Harden and EG to guard 6'7"-6'9" guys on the wing, and praying that Ariza and Beverley can makeup for the other nightly mismatches. So we have one 6'6"+ guy with defensive versatility in our rotation. Golden State's likely playoff rotation will have six (KD, Draymond, Iggy, Klay, Livingston, M.Barnes). They lead the league in TOs forced, and opponent's FG%, 3pt% and TS%, all without having a stud rim-protector. This is largely because the NBA is a P&R league which allows teams to run hybrid man/zone defenses, and that places a premium on switchable defenders (guards are usually too small, bigs are usually too slow). Last night we were unable to exploit them off switches, and struggled once we did get into the paint (their length was an issue for our smaller guards and their mobility/quick hands were and issue for our bigs). Unfortunately, I'm not sure what we can do at this juncture to address this. Troy Williams? Yikes. Either way, Morey needs to address this in a big way this summer.
thats why ariza and bev are on the team, to handle 95% of the perimeter d. thats how its been for 3 seasons. this team doesnt really care about being good on d, only avg. that wont fly in the playoffs after the first round. if harden steps up and play the defense he's capable of, they have a chance at making the wcf. same thing with eg. let ariza and bev do all the lockdown .d. eg, harden and dekker just \make the opposing wings work and wear down. sounds good on paper but never happens consistently. w/e they'll know exactly what they need after the po's
Golden State is always elite on O but only really dominate when they lock-down on D. The difference is that they have the size/versatility to do so, when we don't -- no matter what Harden's effort level is. I'm fairly positive we have the smallest team in the league, when you adjust for minutes. Small-ball works fine as long as your rotation is full of versatile defenders. I love PatBev but him being 6'1" really limits his impact (it's really impressive that he makes the difference that he does). He's only going to be able to defend other guards. You can't be this small-guard dependent and still have a strong defense.
This alone is a great breakdown. Our defense overachieves significantly based on our personnel. That's something that I hope to see addressed in the offseason. We need a rebounding backup PF and and starter or backup defensive wing.
Might wanna take the last few games to see if Troy Williams can help this year. We need another wing to limit Trevor's minutes.
Which players could we realistically go after? I was going to make a thread last night about the need of a game changing defender, but there are so few actually available. I think your theory of getting versatile solid defenders is more realistic than getting one dynamic anchor. Something to keep in mind is that we're still 16th in defense. We're never going to be top 5 if we don't find an anchor like Green or Gobert, but I think we're not too far from being top 10. In January and February we were 15th and 10th. In March we are now 20th. Adding Lou really did make our defense worse, but it made our offense killer. I think in the summer we may have to look to move Lou Williams and replace him with a lesser player, but one that is versatile enough to defend 1-3. I really don't know how to tackle our defensive issues. I think Morey really did box himself in. Anderson might be better coming off the bench if we replace him with a 4 who can switch from 3-5. That could move Dekker to the 3 spot. Still, I don't think it'd be enough. We're in a tough spot defensively.
Well we tried to get Bazemore and Horford but they didn't want to come here after last year's disaster Morey will find some to go after this off season and players should want to come here
Morey and D'Antoni won't play a rebounding backup PF unless he can shoot and can move. Nene and Gortat started together on a team that was one injury (Wall) or one shot (Alford) away from the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago, so a 2 big lineup is possible (with enough shooting elsewhere). It's just a completely different philosophy here though. The Rockets will only play 2 traditional bigs in garbage time or if one of them can shoot (Ryno). Prime KG would be the ideal PF for this system, but that guy would fit any system.
I'd actually disagree about the defensive focus prior to this season. Aside from last season's overall disaster, we were set up with a bunch of versatile defenders. Our defense steadily improved under McHale going from 20s to top ten over the subsequent 3 seasons ending with our Western Conference berth. We've actually played very good defense this season for stretches, it's just been inconsistent and has gotten consistently worse since the all star break.
thats what i said, they cant be elite but can be good defensively but they're inconsistent and its always been like that. not gonna change in the po's of all times.
Good write up. We were built more like the GSW in the McHale era with a bunch of versatile defenders that hit that versatility sweet spot in height, minus the shooters. I agree that stud rim-protectors are overrated with how defenses schemes are today save for a handful of centers. I think we've overachieved this season so far and we are more or less playing with house money. We are going all in on offense and hope to pick up our defense when it counts. Lou Williams has underachieved based on his career and his recent stint with LAL and we'll need him to become like the old Lou. Our best bet is to say screw your MVP chances Harden with regular season play, get rested and healthy. Harden can make a better case for himself by being elite in the playoffs. Rest Ariza as well, either sit him out and reduce his minutes. I think our bench is key to making any sort of significant run and we need to get Lou better integrated along with resting some of our starters (Harden and Ariza mostly). We will have some options this summer to address the wing.
Agreed, this PF will need some sort of jump-shot skillset. They won't necessarily be part of a twin-towers lineup; they would supplant Harrell or Dekker's minutes if one of those guys don't pan out. I like Nene but I'm not sure how much he has left in the tank. I don't like how up-and-down he is. All three of those guys should consider themselves at the most risk for replacement, in my opinion, as much as we like all of them. I'm still hoping Dekker and Harrell develop more consistency. Also we should remind ourselves that snagging defensive rebounds / forcing misses at the rim can create fastbreaks. We need a defense-creates-offense kind of big man. (Or wing... preferably both.)
Rockets tried to make a run at Wilson Chandler at the deadline. Would have given the Rockets 2 guys in Ariza/Chandler to rotate at the 3/4 spots. It would be great to have a swingman with length that is a 2 way player but those guys are hard to get and at a premium.
Agreed completely .. The easiest solution is to let Dekker play the 3 . He has shown to be an adequate wing defender this year and has even had standout performances against top wings like KD ( first GS game ) Whether or not he is quick enough to guard smaller, quicker wings is uncertain . But having him bulk up to play PF won't help us in this regard. The other problem is that this creates a bit of a hole at backup PF . I wish D'antonio's system wasn't so rigid and he let Dek play 3 and trez play 4 . In an ideal world Dekker and montrezl are our starters next year . They are the players that have the most upside at their respective positions becuase of their athletic tools and ability to play both ways. But it won't happen unless they develop great 3 point shots.
I think Dekker playing the 4 is for two main reasons: 1 - He has a quickness advantage at the PF spot with his slashing and provides adequate shooting there. 2 - He is considered by the Rockets too slow to play the SF and does not shoot well enough. Dekker has the body type of a traditional 3, but until his shooting or defensive quickness and IQ improve, he's staying a 4 on this team. I think Dekker can play 3 on other teams, but the Rockets just have a different belief system in what they need from that position.
